# Weekly verification digest — 2026-11-08

Window: 2026-11-01 → 2026-11-08 (UTC), compared with 2026-10-25 → 2026-11-01.

Total matched pairs this week: **425123** (last week: 316072).

## Pairs added this week

| Source | Metric | Pairs |
| --- | --- | ---: |
| aifs | dewpoint | 474 |
| aifs | humidity | 474 |
| aifs | qnh | 474 |
| aifs | storm | 474 |
| aifs | temperature | 474 |
| aifs | totalcloud | 474 |
| aifs | winddirection | 414 |
| aifs | windspeed | 474 |
| aviationweather | cloudceiling | 118 |
| aviationweather | storm | 722 |
| aviationweather | totalcloud | 737 |
| aviationweather | visibility | 741 |
| aviationweather | winddirection | 443 |
| aviationweather | windgustspeed | 3 |
| aviationweather | windspeed | 743 |
| ecmwf | chanceofrain | 1401 |
| ecmwf | dewpoint | 1381 |
| ecmwf | humidity | 1381 |
| ecmwf | qnh | 1381 |
| ecmwf | storm | 1401 |
| ecmwf | temperature | 1381 |
| ecmwf | totalcloud | 1401 |
| ecmwf | winddirection | 1204 |
| ecmwf | windgustspeed | 1401 |
| ecmwf | windspeed | 1401 |
| ecmwfens | chanceofrain | 2758 |
| ecmwfens | storm | 2758 |
| ecmwfens | temperature | 2718 |
| ecmwfens | totalcloud | 2718 |
| ecmwfens | windgustspeed | 2739 |
| ecmwfens | windspeed | 2739 |
| gem | chanceofrain | 2798 |
| gem | dewpoint | 2757 |
| gem | humidity | 2757 |
| gem | qnh | 2763 |
| gem | storm | 2798 |
| gem | temperature | 2757 |
| gem | totalcloud | 2757 |
| gem | winddirection | 2376 |
| gem | windgustspeed | 2778 |
| gem | windspeed | 2778 |
| gfs | chanceofrain | 3996 |
| gfs | dewpoint | 3937 |
| gfs | humidity | 3937 |
| gfs | qnh | 3946 |
| gfs | storm | 3996 |
| gfs | temperature | 3937 |
| gfs | totalcloud | 3937 |
| gfs | visibility | 3957 |
| gfs | winddirection | 3398 |
| gfs | windgustspeed | 3967 |
| gfs | windspeed | 3967 |
| icon | chanceofrain | 2782 |
| icon | dewpoint | 2747 |
| icon | humidity | 2747 |
| icon | qnh | 2753 |
| icon | storm | 2788 |
| icon | temperature | 2747 |
| icon | totalcloud | 2747 |
| icon | winddirection | 2369 |
| icon | windgustspeed | 2768 |
| icon | windspeed | 2768 |
| jma | dewpoint | 2757 |
| jma | humidity | 2757 |
| jma | qnh | 2763 |
| jma | storm | 2798 |
| jma | temperature | 2757 |
| jma | totalcloud | 2757 |
| jma | winddirection | 2376 |
| jma | windspeed | 2778 |
| metcheck | chanceofrain | 2908 |
| metcheck | dewpoint | 2865 |
| metcheck | humidity | 2865 |
| metcheck | qnh | 2870 |
| metcheck | temperature | 2865 |
| metcheck | totalcloud | 2875 |
| metcheck | winddirection | 2471 |
| metcheck | windgustspeed | 2891 |
| metcheck | windspeed | 2891 |
| meteoblue | chanceofrain | 2300 |
| meteoblue | dewpoint | 2265 |
| meteoblue | humidity | 2265 |
| meteoblue | qnh | 2270 |
| meteoblue | temperature | 2265 |
| meteoblue | totalcloud | 2265 |
| meteoblue | visibility | 2277 |
| meteoblue | winddirection | 1954 |
| meteoblue | windgustspeed | 2284 |
| meteoblue | windspeed | 2284 |
| meteofrance | dewpoint | 1560 |
| meteofrance | humidity | 1560 |
| meteofrance | qnh | 1563 |
| meteofrance | storm | 1583 |
| meteofrance | temperature | 1560 |
| meteofrance | totalcloud | 1560 |
| meteofrance | winddirection | 1344 |
| meteofrance | windgustspeed | 1572 |
| meteofrance | windspeed | 1572 |
| metno | dewpoint | 1815 |
| metno | humidity | 1815 |
| metno | qnh | 1818 |
| metno | storm | 1800 |
| metno | temperature | 1815 |
| metno | totalcloud | 1814 |
| metno | winddirection | 1561 |
| metno | windspeed | 1825 |
| openmeteo | chanceofrain | 6011 |
| openmeteo | dewpoint | 5877 |
| openmeteo | humidity | 5877 |
| openmeteo | qnh | 5643 |
| openmeteo | storm | 5966 |
| openmeteo | temperature | 5877 |
| openmeteo | totalcloud | 5877 |
| openmeteo | visibility | 5924 |
| openmeteo | winddirection | 5081 |
| openmeteo | windgustspeed | 5940 |
| openmeteo | windspeed | 5925 |
| openweather | chanceofrain | 812 |
| openweather | dewpoint | 800 |
| openweather | humidity | 800 |
| openweather | qnh | 800 |
| openweather | storm | 812 |
| openweather | temperature | 800 |
| openweather | totalcloud | 812 |
| openweather | visibility | 812 |
| openweather | winddirection | 700 |
| openweather | windgustspeed | 812 |
| openweather | windspeed | 812 |
| tomorrowio | chanceofrain | 2361 |
| tomorrowio | dewpoint | 2327 |
| tomorrowio | humidity | 2327 |
| tomorrowio | qnh | 2332 |
| tomorrowio | storm | 2361 |
| tomorrowio | temperature | 2327 |
| tomorrowio | totalcloud | 2327 |
| tomorrowio | visibility | 2339 |
| tomorrowio | winddirection | 2010 |
| tomorrowio | windgustspeed | 2344 |
| tomorrowio | windspeed | 2344 |
| ukmo | chanceofrain | 2781 |
| ukmo | dewpoint | 2535 |
| ukmo | humidity | 2535 |
| ukmo | qnh | 2541 |
| ukmo | storm | 2573 |
| ukmo | temperature | 2535 |
| ukmo | totalcloud | 2534 |
| ukmo | visibility | 2548 |
| ukmo | winddirection | 2180 |
| ukmo | windgustspeed | 2553 |
| ukmo | windspeed | 2553 |
| visualcrossing | chanceofrain | 5786 |
| visualcrossing | dewpoint | 5701 |
| visualcrossing | humidity | 5701 |
| visualcrossing | qnh | 5531 |
| visualcrossing | storm | 5786 |
| visualcrossing | temperature | 5701 |
| visualcrossing | totalcloud | 5701 |
| visualcrossing | visibility | 5731 |
| visualcrossing | winddirection | 4924 |
| visualcrossing | windgustspeed | 5746 |
| visualcrossing | windspeed | 5746 |
| wttrin | chanceofrain | 399 |
| wttrin | dewpoint | 393 |
| wttrin | humidity | 393 |
| wttrin | qnh | 393 |
| wttrin | storm | 399 |
| wttrin | temperature | 393 |
| wttrin | totalcloud | 399 |
| wttrin | visibility | 399 |
| wttrin | winddirection | 344 |
| wttrin | windgustspeed | 399 |
| wttrin | windspeed | 399 |

## Skill: this week vs last week

Skill = pool MAE / source MAE on this week's pairs only, clamped 0.5–1.5; entries with n < 5 are gated to 1.

| Source | Metric | This week | Last week |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| aifs | dewpoint | 1.00 | 1.15 |
| aifs | humidity | 0.89 | 1.07 |
| aifs | qnh | 0.92 | 0.97 |
| aifs | storm | 1.50 | 1.46 |
| aifs | temperature | 1.19 | 1.02 |
| aifs | totalcloud | 0.73 | 0.88 |
| aifs | winddirection | 1.10 | 1.02 |
| aifs | windspeed | 1.17 | 1.29 |
| aviationweather | cloudceiling | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| aviationweather | storm | 0.70 | 0.82 |
| aviationweather | totalcloud | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| aviationweather | visibility | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| aviationweather | winddirection | 0.94 | 0.93 |
| aviationweather | windgustspeed | 1.00 (gated) | — |
| aviationweather | windspeed | 0.81 | 0.82 |
| ecmwf | chanceofrain | 0.60 | 0.74 |
| ecmwf | dewpoint | 1.12 | 1.07 |
| ecmwf | humidity | 1.29 | 1.11 |
| ecmwf | qnh | 1.04 | 1.02 |
| ecmwf | storm | 1.50 | 1.43 |
| ecmwf | temperature | 0.86 | 0.84 |
| ecmwf | totalcloud | 0.96 | 1.09 |
| ecmwf | winddirection | 0.96 | 0.98 |
| ecmwf | windgustspeed | 1.50 | 1.32 |
| ecmwf | windspeed | 1.20 | 1.01 |
| ecmwfens | chanceofrain | 0.57 | 0.69 |
| ecmwfens | storm | 1.50 | 0.98 |
| ecmwfens | temperature | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| ecmwfens | totalcloud | 1.07 | 1.38 |
| ecmwfens | windgustspeed | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| ecmwfens | windspeed | 1.35 | 1.25 |
| gem | chanceofrain | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| gem | dewpoint | 0.99 | 0.97 |
| gem | humidity | 1.02 | 1.22 |
| gem | qnh | 1.28 | 1.19 |
| gem | storm | 1.50 | 1.11 |
| gem | temperature | 0.82 | 0.79 |
| gem | totalcloud | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| gem | winddirection | 1.14 | 1.00 |
| gem | windgustspeed | 1.50 | 1.12 |
| gem | windspeed | 1.08 | 1.08 |
| gfs | chanceofrain | 1.50 | 1.15 |
| gfs | dewpoint | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| gfs | humidity | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| gfs | qnh | 1.27 | 1.08 |
| gfs | storm | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| gfs | temperature | 1.03 | 0.96 |
| gfs | totalcloud | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| gfs | visibility | 1.02 | 1.01 |
| gfs | winddirection | 1.00 | 0.89 |
| gfs | windgustspeed | 0.65 | 0.62 |
| gfs | windspeed | 0.83 | 0.76 |
| icon | chanceofrain | 1.28 | 0.89 |
| icon | dewpoint | 1.42 | 1.18 |
| icon | humidity | 1.34 | 0.96 |
| icon | qnh | 0.91 | 0.89 |
| icon | storm | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| icon | temperature | 1.09 | 0.96 |
| icon | totalcloud | 0.92 | 0.73 |
| icon | winddirection | 1.14 | 1.08 |
| icon | windgustspeed | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| icon | windspeed | 1.38 | 1.21 |
| jma | dewpoint | 0.86 | 0.83 |
| jma | humidity | 0.86 | 0.93 |
| jma | qnh | 1.07 | 0.97 |
| jma | storm | 1.50 | 1.11 |
| jma | temperature | 0.93 | 0.99 |
| jma | totalcloud | 1.31 | 1.39 |
| jma | winddirection | 0.99 | 0.96 |
| jma | windspeed | 0.97 | 1.16 |
| metcheck | chanceofrain | 1.22 | 1.07 |
| metcheck | dewpoint | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| metcheck | humidity | 0.68 | 0.74 |
| metcheck | qnh | 0.99 | 0.86 |
| metcheck | temperature | 1.07 | 1.08 |
| metcheck | totalcloud | 0.76 | 0.74 |
| metcheck | winddirection | 0.95 | 0.91 |
| metcheck | windgustspeed | 0.68 | 0.80 |
| metcheck | windspeed | 0.98 | 0.94 |
| meteoblue | chanceofrain | 0.97 | 0.93 |
| meteoblue | dewpoint | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| meteoblue | humidity | 1.38 | 1.44 |
| meteoblue | qnh | 0.98 | 0.98 |
| meteoblue | temperature | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| meteoblue | totalcloud | 1.50 | 1.38 |
| meteoblue | visibility | 0.96 | 1.00 |
| meteoblue | winddirection | 1.05 | 1.11 |
| meteoblue | windgustspeed | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| meteoblue | windspeed | 1.38 | 1.39 |
| meteofrance | dewpoint | 0.81 | 0.84 |
| meteofrance | humidity | 0.84 | 0.90 |
| meteofrance | qnh | 1.02 | 1.04 |
| meteofrance | storm | 1.50 | 1.13 |
| meteofrance | temperature | 1.06 | 1.12 |
| meteofrance | totalcloud | 0.64 | 0.62 |
| meteofrance | winddirection | 1.13 | 1.07 |
| meteofrance | windgustspeed | 0.93 | 0.79 |
| meteofrance | windspeed | 0.85 | 0.94 |
| metno | dewpoint | 1.32 | 1.28 |
| metno | humidity | 1.36 | 1.27 |
| metno | qnh | 1.07 | 1.07 |
| metno | storm | 1.50 | 1.25 |
| metno | temperature | 1.00 | 0.97 |
| metno | totalcloud | 0.96 | 1.13 |
| metno | winddirection | 0.93 | 1.08 |
| metno | windspeed | 1.19 | 1.11 |
| openmeteo | chanceofrain | 0.54 | 0.75 |
| openmeteo | dewpoint | 1.00 | 1.07 |
| openmeteo | humidity | 1.20 | 1.13 |
| openmeteo | qnh | 0.89 | 1.01 |
| openmeteo | storm | 1.50 | 1.20 |
| openmeteo | temperature | 0.74 | 0.86 |
| openmeteo | totalcloud | 1.00 | 1.03 |
| openmeteo | visibility | 0.95 | 0.94 |
| openmeteo | winddirection | 0.89 | 0.95 |
| openmeteo | windgustspeed | 0.93 | 0.81 |
| openmeteo | windspeed | 1.03 | 1.00 |
| openweather | chanceofrain | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| openweather | dewpoint | 1.04 | 1.04 |
| openweather | humidity | 0.96 | 0.95 |
| openweather | qnh | 1.05 | 1.04 |
| openweather | storm | 1.50 | 1.41 |
| openweather | temperature | 1.35 | 1.15 |
| openweather | totalcloud | 0.72 | 0.93 |
| openweather | visibility | 0.98 | 0.99 |
| openweather | winddirection | 1.07 | 1.10 |
| openweather | windgustspeed | 0.53 | 0.76 |
| openweather | windspeed | 1.06 | 0.95 |
| tomorrowio | chanceofrain | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| tomorrowio | dewpoint | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| tomorrowio | humidity | 1.39 | 1.37 |
| tomorrowio | qnh | 1.00 | 1.01 |
| tomorrowio | storm | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| tomorrowio | temperature | 1.31 | 1.22 |
| tomorrowio | totalcloud | 0.96 | 1.13 |
| tomorrowio | visibility | 0.95 | 0.95 |
| tomorrowio | winddirection | 0.92 | 1.06 |
| tomorrowio | windgustspeed | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| tomorrowio | windspeed | 1.18 | 1.10 |
| ukmo | chanceofrain | 1.50 | 1.31 |
| ukmo | dewpoint | 0.89 | 1.05 |
| ukmo | humidity | 0.85 | 1.02 |
| ukmo | qnh | 1.09 | 1.06 |
| ukmo | storm | 1.50 | 1.14 |
| ukmo | temperature | 0.83 | 0.78 |
| ukmo | totalcloud | 1.27 | 1.16 |
| ukmo | visibility | 1.01 | 1.01 |
| ukmo | winddirection | 1.03 | 1.05 |
| ukmo | windgustspeed | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| ukmo | windspeed | 1.15 | 1.20 |
| visualcrossing | chanceofrain | 0.88 | 0.87 |
| visualcrossing | dewpoint | 1.42 | 1.34 |
| visualcrossing | humidity | 1.20 | 1.14 |
| visualcrossing | qnh | 0.84 | 0.93 |
| visualcrossing | storm | 0.50 | 0.51 |
| visualcrossing | temperature | 1.30 | 1.35 |
| visualcrossing | totalcloud | 0.93 | 0.89 |
| visualcrossing | visibility | 1.02 | 1.00 |
| visualcrossing | winddirection | 1.03 | 1.01 |
| visualcrossing | windgustspeed | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| visualcrossing | windspeed | 0.72 | 0.72 |
| wttrin | chanceofrain | 0.81 | 1.15 |
| wttrin | dewpoint | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| wttrin | humidity | 0.59 | 0.68 |
| wttrin | qnh | 1.12 | 1.06 |
| wttrin | storm | 1.50 | 1.38 |
| wttrin | temperature | 1.09 | 1.01 |
| wttrin | totalcloud | 0.75 | 0.78 |
| wttrin | visibility | 0.93 | 0.99 |
| wttrin | winddirection | 1.15 | 0.99 |
| wttrin | windgustspeed | 0.54 | 0.70 |
| wttrin | windspeed | 0.74 | 0.76 |

## Notable misses

Largest single errors this week (canonical units: °C, knots, metres, %).

| Source | Metric | Place | Hour (UTC) | Error |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: |
| aviationweather | cloudceiling | abuja | 2026-11-01T17:00Z | 11200.00 |
| aviationweather | cloudceiling | abuja | 2026-11-01T18:00Z | 11200.00 |
| aviationweather | cloudceiling | abuja | 2026-11-01T19:00Z | 11200.00 |
| aviationweather | cloudceiling | lagos | 2026-11-03T19:00Z | 11100.00 |
| aviationweather | cloudceiling | lagos | 2026-11-03T20:00Z | 11100.00 |

## Verdicts

- **aifs**: beating the pool (avg skill 1.06 over 8 scored metrics), down from 1.11 last week
- **aviationweather**: beating the pool (avg skill 1.08 over 6 scored metrics), steady vs last week (1.09)
- **ecmwf**: beating the pool (avg skill 1.10 over 10 scored metrics), up from 1.06 last week
- **ecmwfens**: beating the pool (avg skill 1.17 over 6 scored metrics), up from 1.13 last week
- **gem**: beating the pool (avg skill 1.23 over 10 scored metrics), up from 1.15 last week
- **gfs**: tracking the pool (avg skill 0.99 over 11 scored metrics), up from 0.88 last week
- **icon**: beating the pool (avg skill 1.25 over 10 scored metrics), up from 1.04 last week
- **jma**: beating the pool (avg skill 1.06 over 8 scored metrics), up from 1.04 last week
- **metcheck**: trailing the pool (avg skill 0.88 over 9 scored metrics), steady vs last week (0.87)
- **meteoblue**: beating the pool (avg skill 1.27 over 10 scored metrics), steady vs last week (1.27)
- **meteofrance**: tracking the pool (avg skill 0.98 over 9 scored metrics), up from 0.94 last week
- **metno**: beating the pool (avg skill 1.16 over 8 scored metrics), steady vs last week (1.15)
- **openmeteo**: tracking the pool (avg skill 0.97 over 11 scored metrics), steady vs last week (0.98)
- **openweather**: beating the pool (avg skill 1.07 over 11 scored metrics), steady vs last week (1.07)
- **tomorrowio**: beating the pool (avg skill 1.25 over 11 scored metrics), steady vs last week (1.23)
- **ukmo**: beating the pool (avg skill 1.15 over 11 scored metrics), up from 1.12 last week
- **visualcrossing**: trailing the pool (avg skill 0.94 over 11 scored metrics), steady vs last week (0.93)
- **wttrin**: trailing the pool (avg skill 0.90 over 11 scored metrics), down from 0.92 last week

## Consensus vs single sources (holdout)

Holdout: the last 7 days, 9384 observed (place, hour, metric) items, scored with skill/bias learned only from older pairs (computed 2026-11-08T10:50:16.283Z). Score = mean over metrics of consensus MAE / average single-source MAE — lower is better, < 1 beats the average source.

| Forecast | Score |
| --- | ---: |
| consensus, blend 0 | 0.706 |
| consensus, blend 0.25 | 0.700 |
| consensus, blend 0.5 | 0.694 |
| consensus, blend 0.75 | 0.690 |
| consensus, blend 1 (current) | 0.686 |
| equal weights (raw) | 0.848 |
| best single source: icon (90% coverage) | 0.804 |

The current consensus beat the best single source by 14.6%.

Recommended blend: **1** — current auto blend kept (no candidate beats it by ≥1%).

## Probability calibration (reliability)

Per source and probability metric: each forecast-probability decile against how often the event was then observed (METAR / SYNOP). A reliable source has Observed close to Mean forecast. A fit needs at least 200 pairs; below that the table is informative only.

### meteoblue — chanceofrain (n=12025, isotonic fit stored)

| Forecast decile | Pairs | Mean forecast | Observed |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 0.0–0.1 | 8447 | 0.009 | 0.001 |
| 0.1–0.2 | 958 | 0.144 | 0.020 |
| 0.2–0.3 | 770 | 0.244 | 0.044 |
| 0.3–0.4 | 517 | 0.343 | 0.054 |
| 0.4–0.5 | 432 | 0.443 | 0.035 |
| 0.5–0.6 | 351 | 0.541 | 0.026 |
| 0.6–0.7 | 231 | 0.647 | 0.078 |
| 0.7–0.8 | 178 | 0.742 | 0.067 |
| 0.8–0.9 | 102 | 0.839 | 0.108 |
| 0.9–1.0 | 39 | 0.932 | 0.103 |

Reliability error (mean |forecast − observed| across deciles): 0.435.

### openmeteo — storm (n=24399, isotonic fit stored)

| Forecast decile | Pairs | Mean forecast | Observed |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 0.0–0.1 | 24331 | 0.000 | 0.043 |
| 0.9–1.0 | 68 | 1.000 | 0.147 |

Reliability error (mean |forecast − observed| across deciles): 0.448.

### openmeteo — chanceofrain (n=24502, isotonic fit stored)

| Forecast decile | Pairs | Mean forecast | Observed |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 0.0–0.1 | 17503 | 0.007 | 0.002 |
| 0.1–0.2 | 1663 | 0.141 | 0.018 |
| 0.2–0.3 | 1130 | 0.242 | 0.019 |
| 0.3–0.4 | 785 | 0.345 | 0.032 |
| 0.4–0.5 | 619 | 0.446 | 0.042 |
| 0.5–0.6 | 539 | 0.545 | 0.046 |
| 0.6–0.7 | 539 | 0.646 | 0.032 |
| 0.7–0.8 | 564 | 0.747 | 0.053 |
| 0.8–0.9 | 603 | 0.841 | 0.060 |
| 0.9–1.0 | 557 | 0.944 | 0.043 |

Reliability error (mean |forecast − observed| across deciles): 0.456.

### accuweather — storm (n=109, gated, no fit)

| Forecast decile | Pairs | Mean forecast | Observed |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 0.0–0.1 | 98 | 0.000 | 0.020 |
| 0.9–1.0 | 11 | 1.000 | 0.182 |

Reliability error (mean |forecast − observed| across deciles): 0.419.

### accuweather — chanceofrain (n=109, gated, no fit)

| Forecast decile | Pairs | Mean forecast | Observed |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 0.0–0.1 | 53 | 0.023 | 0.000 |
| 0.1–0.2 | 10 | 0.158 | 0.000 |
| 0.2–0.3 | 14 | 0.226 | 0.000 |
| 0.3–0.4 | 5 | 0.362 | 0.000 |
| 0.4–0.5 | 17 | 0.470 | 0.059 |
| 0.5–0.6 | 9 | 0.557 | 0.333 |
| 0.6–0.7 | 1 | 0.680 | 0.000 |

Reliability error (mean |forecast − observed| across deciles): 0.298.

### metno — storm (n=9730, isotonic fit stored)

| Forecast decile | Pairs | Mean forecast | Observed |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 0.0–0.1 | 9730 | 0.000 | 0.043 |

Reliability error (mean |forecast − observed| across deciles): 0.043.

### foreca — storm (n=783, isotonic fit stored)

| Forecast decile | Pairs | Mean forecast | Observed |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 0.0–0.1 | 779 | 0.000 | 0.004 |
| 0.9–1.0 | 4 | 1.000 | 0.250 |

Reliability error (mean |forecast − observed| across deciles): 0.377.

### foreca — chanceofrain (n=783, isotonic fit stored)

| Forecast decile | Pairs | Mean forecast | Observed |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 0.0–0.1 | 724 | 0.021 | 0.000 |
| 0.1–0.2 | 17 | 0.143 | 0.000 |
| 0.2–0.3 | 10 | 0.237 | 0.000 |
| 0.3–0.4 | 7 | 0.336 | 0.000 |
| 0.4–0.5 | 6 | 0.448 | 0.000 |
| 0.5–0.6 | 5 | 0.556 | 0.000 |
| 0.6–0.7 | 7 | 0.656 | 0.000 |
| 0.7–0.8 | 5 | 0.738 | 0.600 |
| 0.8–0.9 | 1 | 0.820 | 1.000 |
| 0.9–1.0 | 1 | 0.900 | 0.000 |

Reliability error (mean |forecast − observed| across deciles): 0.361.

### metcheck — chanceofrain (n=14608, isotonic fit stored)

| Forecast decile | Pairs | Mean forecast | Observed |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 0.0–0.1 | 10606 | 0.010 | 0.005 |
| 0.1–0.2 | 1315 | 0.135 | 0.024 |
| 0.2–0.3 | 881 | 0.240 | 0.031 |
| 0.3–0.4 | 493 | 0.353 | 0.024 |
| 0.4–0.5 | 314 | 0.445 | 0.045 |
| 0.5–0.6 | 382 | 0.528 | 0.050 |
| 0.6–0.7 | 286 | 0.627 | 0.073 |
| 0.7–0.8 | 219 | 0.738 | 0.041 |
| 0.8–0.9 | 93 | 0.853 | 0.043 |
| 0.9–1.0 | 19 | 0.968 | 0.105 |

Reliability error (mean |forecast − observed| across deciles): 0.446.

### openweather — storm (n=4347, isotonic fit stored)

| Forecast decile | Pairs | Mean forecast | Observed |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 0.0–0.1 | 4347 | 0.000 | 0.048 |

Reliability error (mean |forecast − observed| across deciles): 0.048.

### openweather — chanceofrain (n=4347, isotonic fit stored)

| Forecast decile | Pairs | Mean forecast | Observed |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 0.0–0.1 | 3621 | 0.005 | 0.005 |
| 0.1–0.2 | 281 | 0.142 | 0.025 |
| 0.2–0.3 | 135 | 0.246 | 0.022 |
| 0.3–0.4 | 66 | 0.338 | 0.045 |
| 0.4–0.5 | 56 | 0.431 | 0.018 |
| 0.5–0.6 | 68 | 0.540 | 0.059 |
| 0.6–0.7 | 31 | 0.658 | 0.065 |
| 0.7–0.8 | 17 | 0.743 | 0.000 |
| 0.8–0.9 | 8 | 0.838 | 0.000 |
| 0.9–1.0 | 64 | 0.990 | 0.063 |

Reliability error (mean |forecast − observed| across deciles): 0.463.

### visualcrossing — storm (n=23908, isotonic fit stored)

| Forecast decile | Pairs | Mean forecast | Observed |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 0.0–0.1 | 12121 | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| 0.1–0.2 | 868 | 0.146 | 0.025 |
| 0.2–0.3 | 913 | 0.245 | 0.050 |
| 0.3–0.4 | 1045 | 0.345 | 0.088 |
| 0.4–0.5 | 1151 | 0.446 | 0.112 |
| 0.5–0.6 | 1290 | 0.545 | 0.117 |
| 0.6–0.7 | 1144 | 0.645 | 0.135 |
| 0.7–0.8 | 1063 | 0.745 | 0.131 |
| 0.8–0.9 | 990 | 0.844 | 0.106 |
| 0.9–1.0 | 3323 | 0.985 | 0.052 |

Reliability error (mean |forecast − observed| across deciles): 0.413.

### visualcrossing — chanceofrain (n=23904, isotonic fit stored)

| Forecast decile | Pairs | Mean forecast | Observed |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 0.0–0.1 | 15619 | 0.009 | 0.002 |
| 0.1–0.2 | 2497 | 0.136 | 0.018 |
| 0.2–0.3 | 1154 | 0.259 | 0.029 |
| 0.3–0.4 | 1036 | 0.357 | 0.025 |
| 0.4–0.5 | 1117 | 0.450 | 0.029 |
| 0.5–0.6 | 750 | 0.549 | 0.032 |
| 0.6–0.7 | 611 | 0.642 | 0.023 |
| 0.7–0.8 | 472 | 0.741 | 0.057 |
| 0.8–0.9 | 394 | 0.839 | 0.051 |
| 0.9–1.0 | 254 | 0.949 | 0.055 |

Reliability error (mean |forecast − observed| across deciles): 0.461.

### tomorrowio — storm (n=12775, isotonic fit stored)

| Forecast decile | Pairs | Mean forecast | Observed |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 0.0–0.1 | 12775 | 0.000 | 0.046 |

Reliability error (mean |forecast − observed| across deciles): 0.046.

### tomorrowio — chanceofrain (n=12775, isotonic fit stored)

| Forecast decile | Pairs | Mean forecast | Observed |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 0.0–0.1 | 11147 | 0.003 | 0.007 |
| 0.1–0.2 | 746 | 0.122 | 0.029 |
| 0.2–0.3 | 411 | 0.223 | 0.051 |
| 0.3–0.4 | 284 | 0.321 | 0.049 |
| 0.4–0.5 | 129 | 0.419 | 0.132 |
| 0.5–0.6 | 46 | 0.514 | 0.283 |
| 0.6–0.7 | 11 | 0.605 | 0.091 |
| 0.7–0.8 | 1 | 0.700 | 0.000 |

Reliability error (mean |forecast − observed| across deciles): 0.284.

### wttrin — storm (n=2364, isotonic fit stored)

| Forecast decile | Pairs | Mean forecast | Observed |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 0.0–0.1 | 2285 | 0.000 | 0.044 |
| 0.2–0.3 | 17 | 0.255 | 0.059 |
| 0.3–0.4 | 38 | 0.347 | 0.158 |
| 0.4–0.5 | 24 | 0.422 | 0.083 |

Reliability error (mean |forecast − observed| across deciles): 0.192.

### wttrin — chanceofrain (n=2364, isotonic fit stored)

| Forecast decile | Pairs | Mean forecast | Observed |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 0.0–0.1 | 1466 | 0.041 | 0.001 |
| 0.1–0.2 | 405 | 0.143 | 0.005 |
| 0.2–0.3 | 251 | 0.239 | 0.036 |
| 0.3–0.4 | 116 | 0.340 | 0.060 |
| 0.4–0.5 | 46 | 0.431 | 0.022 |
| 0.5–0.6 | 33 | 0.555 | 0.030 |
| 0.6–0.7 | 22 | 0.632 | 0.000 |
| 0.7–0.8 | 19 | 0.746 | 0.053 |
| 0.8–0.9 | 5 | 0.838 | 0.200 |
| 0.9–1.0 | 1 | 0.940 | 0.000 |

Reliability error (mean |forecast − observed| across deciles): 0.450.

### ecmwf — storm (n=6475, isotonic fit stored)

| Forecast decile | Pairs | Mean forecast | Observed |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 0.0–0.1 | 6475 | 0.000 | 0.052 |

Reliability error (mean |forecast − observed| across deciles): 0.052.

### ecmwf — chanceofrain (n=6475, isotonic fit stored)

| Forecast decile | Pairs | Mean forecast | Observed |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 0.0–0.1 | 4661 | 0.006 | 0.001 |
| 0.1–0.2 | 392 | 0.138 | 0.020 |
| 0.2–0.3 | 296 | 0.242 | 0.027 |
| 0.3–0.4 | 184 | 0.346 | 0.016 |
| 0.4–0.5 | 182 | 0.445 | 0.027 |
| 0.5–0.6 | 150 | 0.548 | 0.060 |
| 0.6–0.7 | 127 | 0.648 | 0.071 |
| 0.7–0.8 | 119 | 0.746 | 0.076 |
| 0.8–0.9 | 183 | 0.841 | 0.038 |
| 0.9–1.0 | 181 | 0.941 | 0.050 |

Reliability error (mean |forecast − observed| across deciles): 0.451.

### gfs — storm (n=19009, isotonic fit stored)

| Forecast decile | Pairs | Mean forecast | Observed |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 0.0–0.1 | 18969 | 0.000 | 0.048 |
| 0.9–1.0 | 40 | 1.000 | 0.050 |

Reliability error (mean |forecast − observed| across deciles): 0.499.

### gfs — chanceofrain (n=19009, isotonic fit stored)

| Forecast decile | Pairs | Mean forecast | Observed |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 0.0–0.1 | 13903 | 0.010 | 0.004 |
| 0.1–0.2 | 1852 | 0.139 | 0.032 |
| 0.2–0.3 | 1092 | 0.247 | 0.033 |
| 0.3–0.4 | 715 | 0.344 | 0.039 |
| 0.4–0.5 | 503 | 0.443 | 0.030 |
| 0.5–0.6 | 367 | 0.547 | 0.065 |
| 0.6–0.7 | 264 | 0.642 | 0.061 |
| 0.7–0.8 | 153 | 0.739 | 0.078 |
| 0.8–0.9 | 103 | 0.837 | 0.029 |
| 0.9–1.0 | 57 | 0.942 | 0.088 |

Reliability error (mean |forecast − observed| across deciles): 0.443.

### icon — storm (n=14645, isotonic fit stored)

| Forecast decile | Pairs | Mean forecast | Observed |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 0.0–0.1 | 14353 | 0.000 | 0.045 |
| 0.9–1.0 | 292 | 1.000 | 0.175 |

Reliability error (mean |forecast − observed| across deciles): 0.435.

### icon — chanceofrain (n=13702, isotonic fit stored)

| Forecast decile | Pairs | Mean forecast | Observed |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 0.0–0.1 | 10217 | 0.007 | 0.002 |
| 0.1–0.2 | 900 | 0.138 | 0.024 |
| 0.2–0.3 | 639 | 0.242 | 0.039 |
| 0.3–0.4 | 492 | 0.341 | 0.043 |
| 0.4–0.5 | 394 | 0.442 | 0.043 |
| 0.5–0.6 | 295 | 0.543 | 0.037 |
| 0.6–0.7 | 354 | 0.645 | 0.085 |
| 0.7–0.8 | 214 | 0.738 | 0.089 |
| 0.8–0.9 | 146 | 0.841 | 0.082 |
| 0.9–1.0 | 51 | 0.935 | 0.235 |

Reliability error (mean |forecast − observed| across deciles): 0.419.

### meteofrance — storm (n=9128, isotonic fit stored)

| Forecast decile | Pairs | Mean forecast | Observed |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 0.0–0.1 | 9128 | 0.000 | 0.045 |

Reliability error (mean |forecast − observed| across deciles): 0.045.

### aviationweather — storm (n=2218, isotonic fit stored)

| Forecast decile | Pairs | Mean forecast | Observed |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 0.0–0.1 | 1986 | 0.000 | 0.028 |
| 0.1–0.2 | 6 | 0.150 | 0.333 |
| 0.3–0.4 | 3 | 0.300 | 0.000 |
| 0.5–0.6 | 94 | 0.500 | 0.106 |
| 0.9–1.0 | 129 | 1.000 | 0.109 |

Reliability error (mean |forecast − observed| across deciles): 0.359.

### ukmo — storm (n=13247, isotonic fit stored)

| Forecast decile | Pairs | Mean forecast | Observed |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 0.0–0.1 | 13193 | 0.000 | 0.045 |
| 0.9–1.0 | 54 | 1.000 | 0.259 |

Reliability error (mean |forecast − observed| across deciles): 0.393.

### ukmo — chanceofrain (n=13045, isotonic fit stored)

| Forecast decile | Pairs | Mean forecast | Observed |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 0.0–0.1 | 10897 | 0.007 | 0.006 |
| 0.1–0.2 | 1032 | 0.133 | 0.047 |
| 0.2–0.3 | 451 | 0.244 | 0.033 |
| 0.3–0.4 | 276 | 0.354 | 0.072 |
| 0.4–0.5 | 85 | 0.438 | 0.129 |
| 0.5–0.6 | 141 | 0.530 | 0.085 |
| 0.6–0.7 | 83 | 0.637 | 0.060 |
| 0.7–0.8 | 54 | 0.750 | 0.019 |
| 0.8–0.9 | 23 | 0.850 | 0.000 |
| 0.9–1.0 | 3 | 0.940 | 0.000 |

Reliability error (mean |forecast − observed| across deciles): 0.443.

### jma — storm (n=13954, isotonic fit stored)

| Forecast decile | Pairs | Mean forecast | Observed |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 0.0–0.1 | 13954 | 0.000 | 0.047 |

Reliability error (mean |forecast − observed| across deciles): 0.047.

### gem — storm (n=13957, isotonic fit stored)

| Forecast decile | Pairs | Mean forecast | Observed |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 0.0–0.1 | 13957 | 0.000 | 0.047 |

Reliability error (mean |forecast − observed| across deciles): 0.047.

### gem — chanceofrain (n=13957, isotonic fit stored)

| Forecast decile | Pairs | Mean forecast | Observed |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 0.0–0.1 | 12201 | 0.009 | 0.007 |
| 0.1–0.2 | 832 | 0.129 | 0.044 |
| 0.2–0.3 | 248 | 0.250 | 0.020 |
| 0.3–0.4 | 172 | 0.347 | 0.058 |
| 0.4–0.5 | 153 | 0.447 | 0.111 |
| 0.5–0.6 | 129 | 0.548 | 0.047 |
| 0.6–0.7 | 112 | 0.641 | 0.089 |
| 0.7–0.8 | 66 | 0.737 | 0.167 |
| 0.8–0.9 | 38 | 0.828 | 0.105 |
| 0.9–1.0 | 6 | 0.922 | 0.167 |

Reliability error (mean |forecast − observed| across deciles): 0.404.

### ecmwfens — storm (n=13755, isotonic fit stored)

| Forecast decile | Pairs | Mean forecast | Observed |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 0.0–0.1 | 12077 | 0.008 | 0.031 |
| 0.1–0.2 | 702 | 0.147 | 0.148 |
| 0.2–0.3 | 370 | 0.244 | 0.203 |
| 0.3–0.4 | 262 | 0.346 | 0.206 |
| 0.4–0.5 | 184 | 0.444 | 0.158 |
| 0.5–0.6 | 106 | 0.546 | 0.104 |
| 0.6–0.7 | 36 | 0.644 | 0.056 |
| 0.7–0.8 | 17 | 0.752 | 0.000 |
| 0.8–0.9 | 1 | 0.817 | 0.000 |

Reliability error (mean |forecast − observed| across deciles): 0.343.

### ecmwfens — chanceofrain (n=13755, isotonic fit stored)

| Forecast decile | Pairs | Mean forecast | Observed |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 0.0–0.1 | 9304 | 0.010 | 0.002 |
| 0.1–0.2 | 855 | 0.150 | 0.037 |
| 0.2–0.3 | 639 | 0.249 | 0.031 |
| 0.3–0.4 | 529 | 0.348 | 0.038 |
| 0.4–0.5 | 437 | 0.444 | 0.043 |
| 0.5–0.6 | 553 | 0.552 | 0.024 |
| 0.6–0.7 | 519 | 0.656 | 0.027 |
| 0.7–0.8 | 424 | 0.748 | 0.071 |
| 0.8–0.9 | 321 | 0.847 | 0.059 |
| 0.9–1.0 | 174 | 0.936 | 0.011 |

Reliability error (mean |forecast − observed| across deciles): 0.460.

### aifs — storm (n=2340, isotonic fit stored)

| Forecast decile | Pairs | Mean forecast | Observed |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 0.0–0.1 | 2340 | 0.000 | 0.044 |

Reliability error (mean |forecast − observed| across deciles): 0.044.

## Skill vs persistence and climatology

Persistence = the last observation before the forecast was issued; climatology = the ERA5 normal for that month and UTC hour (when built). skillScore = 1 − source MAE / baseline MAE on the same pairs: positive beats the baseline, negative loses (floored at −1).

| Baseline | Metric | Lead band | MAE | Pairs |
| --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| persistence | temperature | short | 4.695 | 49454 |
| persistence | temperature | medium | 5.195 | 73867 |
| persistence | temperature | long | 5.628 | 98389 |
| persistence | dewpoint | short | 1.920 | 45671 |
| persistence | dewpoint | medium | 2.469 | 67167 |
| persistence | dewpoint | long | 2.894 | 88134 |
| persistence | windspeed | short | 2.638 | 43178 |
| persistence | windspeed | medium | 2.666 | 61818 |
| persistence | windspeed | long | 2.714 | 81202 |
| persistence | winddirection | short | 61.761 | 35885 |
| persistence | winddirection | medium | 66.344 | 51354 |
| persistence | winddirection | long | 71.749 | 67290 |
| persistence | visibility | short | 1141.211 | 17939 |
| persistence | visibility | medium | 1277.638 | 27973 |
| persistence | visibility | long | 1340.834 | 57908 |
| persistence | totalcloud | short | 9.339 | 42400 |
| persistence | totalcloud | medium | 10.055 | 60588 |
| persistence | totalcloud | long | 8.857 | 79259 |
| persistence | meansealevelpressure | short | 1.255 | 41199 |
| persistence | meansealevelpressure | medium | 1.537 | 61302 |
| persistence | meansealevelpressure | long | 1.736 | 79207 |
| persistence | humidity | short | 0.143 | 46481 |
| persistence | humidity | medium | 0.157 | 68547 |
| persistence | humidity | long | 0.175 | 90124 |
| persistence | chanceofrain | short | 0.013 | 26780 |
| persistence | chanceofrain | medium | 0.016 | 47018 |
| persistence | chanceofrain | long | 0.015 | 89209 |
| persistence | windgustspeed | short | 2.718 | 416 |
| persistence | windgustspeed | medium | 2.554 | 889 |
| persistence | windgustspeed | long | 3.182 | 1850 |
| persistence | qnh | short | 1.204 | 12640 |
| persistence | qnh | medium | 1.570 | 22146 |
| persistence | qnh | long | 1.722 | 36667 |
| persistence | storm | short | 0.064 | 32012 |
| persistence | storm | medium | 0.069 | 53791 |
| persistence | storm | long | 0.073 | 87901 |
| persistence | cloudceiling | short | 4313.189 | 251 |
| persistence | cloudceiling | medium | 4525.715 | 44 |
| persistence | cloudceiling | long | 328.000 | 4 |
| climatology | temperature | short | 2.463 | 47625 |
| climatology | temperature | medium | 2.508 | 72685 |
| climatology | temperature | long | 2.598 | 93179 |
| climatology | dewpoint | short | 3.972 | 44166 |
| climatology | dewpoint | medium | 3.930 | 66582 |
| climatology | dewpoint | long | 3.981 | 84075 |
| climatology | windspeed | short | 2.281 | 45947 |
| climatology | windspeed | medium | 2.193 | 67099 |
| climatology | windspeed | long | 2.212 | 84996 |
| climatology | totalcloud | short | 32.414 | 45171 |
| climatology | totalcloud | medium | 32.449 | 65829 |
| climatology | totalcloud | long | 32.901 | 83053 |
| climatology | humidity | short | 0.109 | 44951 |
| climatology | humidity | medium | 0.106 | 67944 |
| climatology | humidity | long | 0.098 | 86029 |

| Source | Metric | vs persistence | vs climatology |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| meteoblue | temperature | +0.70 | +0.37 |
| meteoblue | dewpoint | +0.20 | +0.41 |
| meteoblue | windspeed | +0.31 | +0.04 |
| meteoblue | winddirection | +0.28 | — |
| meteoblue | visibility | −0.30 | — |
| meteoblue | totalcloud | −1.00 | −0.03 |
| meteoblue | meansealevelpressure | +0.22 | — |
| meteoblue | humidity | +0.54 | +0.26 |
| meteoblue | chanceofrain | −1.00 | — |
| meteoblue | windgustspeed | +0.94 | — |
| meteoblue | qnh | +0.27 | — |
| openmeteo | temperature | +0.55 | +0.02 |
| openmeteo | dewpoint | −0.21 | +0.08 |
| openmeteo | windspeed | +0.06 | −0.15 |
| openmeteo | winddirection | +0.16 | — |
| openmeteo | visibility | −0.24 | — |
| openmeteo | totalcloud | −1.00 | −0.14 |
| openmeteo | meansealevelpressure | −0.07 | — |
| openmeteo | humidity | +0.51 | +0.14 |
| openmeteo | chanceofrain | −1.00 | — |
| openmeteo | storm | +0.37 | — |
| openmeteo | windgustspeed | +0.80 | — |
| openmeteo | qnh | +0.10 | — |
| accuweather | temperature | +0.62 | −0.21 |
| accuweather | dewpoint | −0.00 | +0.71 |
| accuweather | visibility | −0.31 | — |
| accuweather | humidity | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| accuweather | chanceofrain | −1.00 | — |
| accuweather | storm | −0.18 | — |
| accuweather | windspeed | +0.18 | −0.01 |
| accuweather | winddirection | +0.20 | — |
| accuweather | totalcloud | — | +0.42 |
| accuweather | cloudceiling | −1.00 | — |
| metno | temperature | +0.61 | +0.11 |
| metno | dewpoint | −0.09 | +0.24 |
| metno | windspeed | +0.23 | −0.01 |
| metno | winddirection | +0.21 | — |
| metno | totalcloud | −1.00 | −0.13 |
| metno | meansealevelpressure | +0.09 | — |
| metno | humidity | +0.55 | +0.26 |
| metno | storm | +0.44 | — |
| metno | qnh | +0.21 | — |
| foreca | temperature | +0.79 | +0.47 |
| foreca | dewpoint | −0.84 | +0.21 |
| foreca | meansealevelpressure | −0.72 | — |
| foreca | humidity | +0.39 | +0.17 |
| foreca | chanceofrain | −1.00 | — |
| foreca | storm | +0.40 | — |
| foreca | windspeed | −0.17 | −0.13 |
| foreca | winddirection | +0.11 | — |
| foreca | totalcloud | — | −0.85 |
| metcheck | temperature | +0.64 | +0.24 |
| metcheck | dewpoint | −0.92 | −0.36 |
| metcheck | windspeed | +0.07 | −0.23 |
| metcheck | winddirection | +0.22 | — |
| metcheck | totalcloud | −1.00 | −0.26 |
| metcheck | meansealevelpressure | −0.52 | — |
| metcheck | humidity | +0.28 | −0.22 |
| metcheck | chanceofrain | −1.00 | — |
| metcheck | windgustspeed | +0.82 | — |
| metcheck | qnh | +0.18 | — |
| openweather | temperature | +0.66 | +0.34 |
| openweather | dewpoint | −0.48 | −0.05 |
| openweather | windspeed | +0.09 | −0.16 |
| openweather | winddirection | +0.26 | — |
| openweather | visibility | −0.24 | — |
| openweather | totalcloud | −1.00 | −0.12 |
| openweather | meansealevelpressure | −0.04 | — |
| openweather | humidity | +0.33 | −0.11 |
| openweather | chanceofrain | −1.00 | — |
| openweather | storm | +0.43 | — |
| openweather | windgustspeed | +0.88 | — |
| openweather | qnh | +0.22 | — |
| visualcrossing | temperature | +0.70 | +0.37 |
| visualcrossing | dewpoint | +0.12 | +0.35 |
| visualcrossing | windspeed | −0.10 | −0.35 |
| visualcrossing | winddirection | +0.28 | — |
| visualcrossing | visibility | −0.06 | — |
| visualcrossing | totalcloud | −1.00 | −0.03 |
| visualcrossing | meansealevelpressure | +0.05 | — |
| visualcrossing | humidity | +0.60 | +0.28 |
| visualcrossing | chanceofrain | −1.00 | — |
| visualcrossing | storm | −1.00 | — |
| visualcrossing | windgustspeed | +0.61 | — |
| visualcrossing | qnh | +0.07 | — |
| tomorrowio | temperature | +0.66 | +0.34 |
| tomorrowio | windspeed | +0.14 | −0.07 |
| tomorrowio | winddirection | +0.19 | — |
| tomorrowio | visibility | −0.42 | — |
| tomorrowio | totalcloud | −1.00 | −0.17 |
| tomorrowio | meansealevelpressure | +0.08 | — |
| tomorrowio | humidity | +0.53 | +0.27 |
| tomorrowio | chanceofrain | −1.00 | — |
| tomorrowio | storm | +0.36 | — |
| tomorrowio | dewpoint | +0.08 | +0.34 |
| tomorrowio | windgustspeed | +0.91 | — |
| tomorrowio | qnh | +0.20 | — |
| wttrin | temperature | +0.65 | +0.28 |
| wttrin | dewpoint | −1.00 | −0.24 |
| wttrin | windspeed | −0.15 | −0.41 |
| wttrin | winddirection | +0.25 | — |
| wttrin | visibility | −0.59 | — |
| wttrin | totalcloud | −1.00 | −0.26 |
| wttrin | meansealevelpressure | −0.07 | — |
| wttrin | humidity | +0.26 | −0.26 |
| wttrin | chanceofrain | −1.00 | — |
| wttrin | storm | +0.16 | — |
| wttrin | windgustspeed | +0.84 | — |
| wttrin | qnh | +0.21 | — |
| ecmwf | temperature | +0.51 | +0.06 |
| ecmwf | dewpoint | −0.05 | +0.25 |
| ecmwf | windspeed | +0.13 | −0.07 |
| ecmwf | winddirection | +0.18 | — |
| ecmwf | totalcloud | −1.00 | −0.11 |
| ecmwf | meansealevelpressure | −0.12 | — |
| ecmwf | humidity | +0.50 | +0.27 |
| ecmwf | chanceofrain | −1.00 | — |
| ecmwf | storm | +0.30 | — |
| ecmwf | windgustspeed | +0.89 | — |
| ecmwf | qnh | +0.20 | — |
| gfs | temperature | +0.56 | +0.08 |
| gfs | dewpoint | −0.88 | −0.38 |
| gfs | windspeed | −0.04 | −0.29 |
| gfs | winddirection | +0.24 | — |
| gfs | visibility | −0.07 | — |
| gfs | totalcloud | −1.00 | −0.24 |
| gfs | meansealevelpressure | −0.46 | — |
| gfs | humidity | +0.22 | −0.31 |
| gfs | chanceofrain | −1.00 | — |
| gfs | storm | +0.31 | — |
| gfs | windgustspeed | +0.77 | — |
| gfs | qnh | +0.33 | — |
| icon | temperature | +0.62 | +0.29 |
| icon | dewpoint | −0.00 | +0.29 |
| icon | windspeed | +0.21 | +0.02 |
| icon | winddirection | +0.30 | — |
| icon | totalcloud | −1.00 | −0.14 |
| icon | meansealevelpressure | +0.11 | — |
| icon | humidity | +0.55 | +0.28 |
| icon | chanceofrain | −1.00 | — |
| icon | storm | +0.13 | — |
| icon | windgustspeed | +0.90 | — |
| icon | qnh | +0.10 | — |
| meteofrance | temperature | +0.50 | +0.04 |
| meteofrance | dewpoint | −0.51 | +0.05 |
| meteofrance | windspeed | −0.03 | −0.25 |
| meteofrance | winddirection | +0.23 | — |
| meteofrance | totalcloud | −1.00 | −0.18 |
| meteofrance | meansealevelpressure | −0.13 | — |
| meteofrance | humidity | +0.21 | −0.08 |
| meteofrance | storm | +0.30 | — |
| meteofrance | windgustspeed | +0.73 | — |
| meteofrance | qnh | +0.16 | — |
| aviationweather | visibility | +0.01 | — |
| aviationweather | storm | −1.00 | — |
| aviationweather | windspeed | −0.08 | −0.33 |
| aviationweather | totalcloud | −0.30 | +0.44 |
| aviationweather | winddirection | +0.11 | — |
| aviationweather | cloudceiling | −0.10 | — |
| ukmo | temperature | +0.58 | +0.10 |
| ukmo | dewpoint | −0.28 | +0.04 |
| ukmo | windspeed | +0.19 | +0.01 |
| ukmo | winddirection | +0.29 | — |
| ukmo | visibility | −0.09 | — |
| ukmo | totalcloud | −1.00 | −0.16 |
| ukmo | meansealevelpressure | −0.03 | — |
| ukmo | humidity | +0.50 | +0.14 |
| ukmo | chanceofrain | −1.00 | — |
| ukmo | storm | +0.32 | — |
| ukmo | windgustspeed | +0.94 | — |
| ukmo | qnh | +0.24 | — |
| jma | temperature | +0.55 | +0.04 |
| jma | dewpoint | −0.54 | −0.17 |
| jma | windspeed | +0.03 | −0.16 |
| jma | winddirection | +0.23 | — |
| jma | totalcloud | −1.00 | −0.14 |
| jma | meansealevelpressure | −0.25 | — |
| jma | humidity | +0.37 | −0.07 |
| jma | storm | +0.34 | — |
| jma | qnh | +0.21 | — |
| gem | temperature | +0.60 | +0.16 |
| gem | dewpoint | −0.42 | −0.13 |
| gem | windspeed | +0.04 | −0.13 |
| gem | winddirection | +0.29 | — |
| gem | totalcloud | −1.00 | −0.18 |
| gem | meansealevelpressure | −0.21 | — |
| gem | humidity | +0.47 | +0.03 |
| gem | chanceofrain | −1.00 | — |
| gem | storm | +0.34 | — |
| gem | windgustspeed | +0.82 | — |
| gem | qnh | +0.34 | — |
| ecmwfens | temperature | +0.60 | +0.10 |
| ecmwfens | windspeed | +0.31 | +0.06 |
| ecmwfens | totalcloud | −1.00 | −0.00 |
| ecmwfens | chanceofrain | −1.00 | — |
| ecmwfens | storm | +0.07 | — |
| ecmwfens | windgustspeed | +0.98 | — |
| aifs | temperature | +0.63 | +0.25 |
| aifs | dewpoint | +0.04 | +0.32 |
| aifs | windspeed | +0.17 | −0.08 |
| aifs | totalcloud | −1.00 | −0.04 |
| aifs | meansealevelpressure | +0.02 | — |
| aifs | humidity | +0.57 | +0.29 |
| aifs | storm | +0.35 | — |
| aifs | winddirection | +0.28 | — |
| aifs | qnh | −0.02 | — |