Kaduna — 14-Day Forecast
DNKA · issued 14 Nov 26 01:31Z
Sources used (6): Aviation Weather Center (aviationweather.gov)≈ 1.0 Open-Meteo Ensemble (ECMWF IFS + GEFS)≈ 1.1 Met.no (Yr)▲ 1.1 Open-Meteo▲ 1.1 OpenWeather≈ 1.1 Visual Crossing▲ 1.1
▲ better than the pool · ▽ worse (only when the 95% interval excludes the pool) · ≈ not distinguishable from the pool · unmarked = unproven (accuracy is measured against METAR and SYNOP observations)
Sat14 Nov 26
GGEGGFEEEFFGGFFFEEDDDDED
1800–2100L (Marginal, 4 h) ☾
72%
Sun15 Nov 26
DDDDDDDDEFFGGFFFEEDDDDED
best window: 0001–0700L (Marginal, 8 h) ☾ 1800–2100L (Marginal, 4 h) ☾
73%
Mon16 Nov 26
DDDDDDDEEFFFFFFFEEDDDDDD
0001–0600L (Marginal, 7 h) ☾ 1800–2300L (Marginal, 6 h) ☾
73%
Tue17 Nov 26
DDDDDDDEEEEFFFFFFFFFEEEE
0001–0600L (Marginal, 7 h) ☾
71%
Wed18 Nov 26
EEEDDEEFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFEE
0300–0400L (Marginal, 2 h) ☾
71%
Thu19 Nov 26
EEEEEEEEFFFFFFFFFFFFFEEE
no windows
70%
Fri20 Nov 26
EFEDDEEEEFFFFFFFFFGGGFFE
0300–0400L (Marginal, 2 h) ☾
71%
Sat21 Nov 26
EEEEEFFFFFGGGGGGGGGGGGGG
no windows
70%
Sun22 Nov 26
GGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGFE
no windows
69%
Mon23 Nov 26
DDDDDEEEFFFFFFGFFFFFFFEE
0001–0400L (Marginal, 5 h) ☾
69%
Tue24 Nov 26
DDEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEFFFGF
0001–0100L (Marginal, 2 h) ☾
69%
Wed25 Nov 26
FFFFFFFFFFEFEEEEDDEEEFFF
1600–1700L (Marginal, 2 h)
68%
Thu26 Nov 26
GGGGFFEEEEEEEEDEEEEEEEEE
no windows
69%
Fri27 Nov 26
EEEDDEEEEEFGGGGFEEDFEEDD
0300–0400L (Marginal, 2 h) ☾ 2200–2300L (Marginal, 2 h) ☾
69%
A ExcellentB GoodC FairD MarginalE PoorF Very PoorG Unacceptable· No data
Best window (highest confidence, then grade, then length): Sun 15 Nov 26 0001–0700L (Marginal, 8 h) ☾, confidence 73%.
Learned corrections (METAR-verified): skill weighting — pooled all-field scores for 206; bias corrections — jma wind +3.7 kt, metcheck wind +3.6 kt, meteoblue wind +3.3 kt, meteoblue QNH −3.0 hPa, Met.no (Yr) QNH −3.0 hPa, OpenWeather dewpoint +3.0 °C (+67 more); hour-of-day bias (local time, shrunk toward the all-hours bias) — jma afternoon wind +5.0 kt, metcheck afternoon wind +4.9 kt, meteoblue afternoon wind +4.0 kt, meteoblue evening wind +3.5 kt, Open-Meteo afternoon wind +3.5 kt, gfs afternoon wind +3.4 kt (+284 more); cloud base estimated as 410 ft per °C of dewpoint spread for sources that report no ceiling (≥60% cloud cover; flagged estimated, weighted ×0.5); probability calibration — rain chance: meteoblue, Open-Meteo, foreca, metcheck, OpenWeather, Visual Crossing, tomorrowio, wttrin, ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo, gem, Open-Meteo Ensemble (ECMWF IFS + GEFS); storm: Open-Meteo, Met.no (Yr), foreca, OpenWeather, Visual Crossing, tomorrowio, wttrin, ecmwf, gfs, icon, meteofrance, Aviation Weather Center (aviationweather.gov), ukmo, jma, gem, Open-Meteo Ensemble (ECMWF IFS + GEFS), aifs (each source's stated probability mapped to its verified frequency by an isotonic fit on ≥200 pairs, proven on the holdout); fog risk (n=1150): observed fog frequency by dewpoint spread, wind, local hour and season for the forecast conditions (shown from 10 %), proven on the holdout; plausibility bounds from ERA5 climatology 2016-2025 (mean ± 5 sd; screening only, not observed truth); skill blend 1 auto-tuned over 9402 holdout pairs (consensus beat the best single source, tomorrowio, by 16%); correction gates (newest-7-day holdout; pooled skill is always on) — regional skill: off this week (did not improve holdout); place skill: off this week (did not improve holdout); lead-time skill: off this week (did not improve holdout); small-sample skill shrinkage: off this week (did not improve holdout); bias correction: on (improved holdout by 21.1%); place bias: on (improved holdout by 9.8%); hour-of-day bias: on (improved holdout by 6.1%); QNH bias: on (improved holdout by 58.2%); gust estimates: off this week (did not improve holdout); cloud-base coefficient: off this week (insufficient holdout: 73 of 200 items); recent-form skill: off this week (did not improve holdout); probability calibration: on (improved holdout by 18.4%); nowcast anchor horizon: off this week (did not improve holdout); dust-visibility estimate: off this week (did not improve holdout); fog risk: on (improved holdout by 13.3%).
Outlook
| Day | Date | Outlook | Temp | Max wind | Flight windows | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) |
| Sat | 14 Nov 26 | Poor | 19–33°C | 12 kts ENE, g 18 | 1800–2100L (Marginal, 4 h) ☾ | 72% | 13% interpolated |
| Sun | 15 Nov 26 | Marginal | 19–34°C | 12 kts ENE, g 18 | 0001–0700L (Marginal, 8 h) ☾; 1800–2100L (Marginal, 4 h) ☾ | 73% | 15% interpolated |
| Mon | 16 Nov 26 | Marginal | 19–35°C | 11 kts ENE, g 17 | 0001–0600L (Marginal, 7 h) ☾; 1800–2300L (Marginal, 6 h) ☾ | 73% | 17% interpolated |
| Tue | 17 Nov 26 | Very Poor | 19–35°C | 11 kts ENE, g 17 | 0001–0600L (Marginal, 7 h) ☾ | 71% | 27% interpolated |
| Wed | 18 Nov 26 | Very Poor | 19–34°C | 11 kts ENE, g 17 | 0300–0400L (Marginal, 2 h) ☾ | 71% | 26% interpolated |
| Thu | 19 Nov 26 | Very Poor | 19–34°C | 10 kts ENE, g 17 | none | 70% | 15% interpolated |
| Fri | 20 Nov 26 | Very Poor | 20–34°C | 11 kts ENE, g 18 | 0300–0400L (Marginal, 2 h) ☾ | 71% | 15% interpolated |
| Sat | 21 Nov 26 | Unacceptable | 20–34°C | 12 kts ENE, g 21 | none | 70% | 15% interpolated |
| Sun | 22 Nov 26 | Unacceptable | 20–34°C | 12 kts NE, g 20 | none | 69% | 16% interpolated |
| Mon | 23 Nov 26 | Very Poor | 19–34°C | 10 kts ENE, g 20 | 0001–0400L (Marginal, 5 h) ☾ | 69% | 8% interpolated |
| Tue | 24 Nov 26 | Poor | 19–35°C | 8 kts NNE, g 16 | 0001–0100L (Marginal, 2 h) ☾ | 69% | |
| Wed | 25 Nov 26 | Very Poor | 19–35°C | 7 kts E, g 16 | 1600–1700L (Marginal, 2 h) | 68% | |
| Thu | 26 Nov 26 | Poor | 20–35°C | 8 kts NE, g 15 | none | 69% | |
| Fri | 27 Nov 26 | Poor | 20–36°C | 8 kts ENE, g 15 | 0300–0400L (Marginal, 2 h) ☾; 2200–2300L (Marginal, 2 h) ☾ | 69% |
Today — Sat 14 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Poor: partly cloudy, winds up to 12 kts ENE, gusting 18 kts and temperatures 19–33°C. Flyable windows: 1800–2100L (Marginal, 4 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L.
| 00–06L | 06–12L | 12–18L | 18–24L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind | F | G | G | E |
| Visibility | A | A | A | A |
| Cloud / ceiling | G | E | B | A |
| Precipitation | A | A | A | A |
| Thunderstorm | D | D | D | D |
| Fog | A | A | · | · |
A Excellent · B Good · C Fair · D Marginal (flyable) · E Poor · F Very Poor · G Unacceptable · (worst condition in each period)
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 21°C | Overcast (100%) | 5 kts ENE | 14 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 100% · visibility not forecast
| ⚠ cloud cover, wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 22 (19–20)°C | Cloudy (74%) | 6 (4–6) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1018 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 74% · visibility not forecast
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 3. | 0200 | 21 (18–20)°C | Partly cloudy (53%) | 6 (4–6) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | cloud 53% · visibility not forecast
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 4. | 0300 | 21 (18–19)°C | Cloudy (72%) | 7 (5–6) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 72% · visibility not forecast
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 5. | 0400 | 20 (17–19)°C | Cloudy (78%) | 7 (5–7) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 78%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 6. | 0500 | 20 (17–18)°C | Cloudy (65%) | 7 (5–7) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1017 | F - Very Poor | cloud 65%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 19 (16–18)°C | Partly cloudy (53%) | 8 (5–8) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | cloud 53% · gust 12 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 19 (17–19)°C | Partly cloudy (41%) | 8 (5–8) kts ENE | 13 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 21 (19–21)°C | Partly cloudy (36%) | 8 (6–9) kts ENE | 14 kts | 1018 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 10. | 0900 | 24 (22–23)°C | Partly cloudy (33%) | 9 (7–9) kts ENE | 16 kts | 1020 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 11. | 1000 | 27 (25–26)°C | Mostly clear (31%) | 10 (7–9) kts ENE | 17 kts | 1020 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 12. | 1100 | 29 (27–28)°C | Mostly clear (28%) | 9 (7–9) kts ENE | 18 kts | 1020 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 13. | 1200 | 32 (29–30)°C | Mostly clear (21%) | 12 (6–9) kts ENE | 18 kts | 1019 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt
| gusts, strong wind, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 14. | 1300 | 33 (30–31)°C | Mostly clear (28%) | 11 (5–9) kts E | 16 kts | 1018 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 33 (30–32)°C | Mostly clear (17%) | 10 (4–8) kts E | 16 kts | 1017 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 16. | 1500 | 33 (30–32)°C | Clear (8%) | 9 (3–8) kts ENE | 15 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 17. | 1600 | 33 (30–32)°C | Clear (5%) | 9 (2–7) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 18. | 1700 | 32 (28–30)°C | Clear (1%) | 8 (3–6) kts NE | 12 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 19. | 1800 | 29 (26–27)°C | Clear (1%) | 6 (4–6) kts NE | 9 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 20. | 1900 | 28 (24–25)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (5–6) kts NNE | 9 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 21. | 2000 | 26 (23–24)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (4–6) kts NNE | 10 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 22. | 2100 | 25 (22–23)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (4–7) kts NE | 11 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 23. | 2200 | 25 (21–23)°C | Clear (0%) | 8 (4–7) kts NE | 12 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 24 (20–22)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (4–7) kts NE | 11 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
Confidence: 72% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 13% of readings interpolated · first light 0603L · last light 1826L · Moon 23 % illuminated, rises 10:37, sets 22:21.
Tomorrow — Sun 15 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: clear, winds up to 12 kts ENE, gusting 18 kts and temperatures 19–34°C. Flyable windows: 0001–0700L (Marginal, 8 h) and 1800–2100L (Marginal, 4 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall an improvement on the previous day.
| 00–06L | 06–12L | 12–18L | 18–24L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind | D | G | G | E |
| Visibility | A | A | A | A |
| Cloud / ceiling | A | A | A | A |
| Precipitation | A | A | A | A |
| Thunderstorm | D | D | D | D |
| Fog | A | A | · | · |
A Excellent · B Good · C Fair · D Marginal (flyable) · E Poor · F Very Poor · G Unacceptable · (worst condition in each period)
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 23 (20–21)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (4–6) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 2. | 0100 | 21 (19–20)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (4–6) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 3. | 0200 | 21 (18–20)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (4–6) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 4. | 0300 | 20 (18–19)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (4–6) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 5. | 0400 | 20 (18–19)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (4–6) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 6. | 0500 | 20 (17–18)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (4–6) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 19 (17–18)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (4–7) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 19 (17–18)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (5–7) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 21 (20–21)°C | Clear (0%) | 8 (6–8) kts ENE | 13 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 10. | 0900 | 25 (23–24)°C | Clear (0%) | 9 (7–9) kts ENE | 15 kts | 1019 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 11. | 1000 | 28 (26–27)°C | Clear (0%) | 10 (7–9) kts ENE | 17 kts | 1019 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 12. | 1100 | 30 (28–29)°C | Clear (0%) | 10 (7–10) kts ENE | 18 kts | 1019 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 13. | 1200 | 32 (30–31)°C | Clear (0%) | 12 (7–10) kts ENE | 18 kts | 1018 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt
| gusts, strong wind, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 14. | 1300 | 34 (31–33)°C | Clear (0%) | 11 (6–10) kts ENE | 17 kts | 1017 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 34 (31–34)°C | Clear (0%) | 11 (5–9) kts ENE | 17 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 16. | 1500 | 34 (31–34)°C | Clear (0%) | 10 (5–8) kts ENE | 16 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 17. | 1600 | 34 (31–33)°C | Clear (0%) | 10 (4–8) kts NE | 14 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 18. | 1700 | 32 (29–31)°C | Clear (0%) | 9 (4–7) kts NE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 19. | 1800 | 30 (26–28)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (4–6) kts NNE | 11 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 20. | 1900 | 28 (24–26)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (4–6) kts NNE | 9 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 21. | 2000 | 27 (23–25)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (4–6) kts NNE | 10 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 22. | 2100 | 26 (22–24)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (4–6) kts NNE | 11 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 23. | 2200 | 25 (21–23)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (4–7) kts NE | 14 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +6 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 24 (21–22)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (4–6) kts NE | 11 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
Confidence: 73% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 15% of readings interpolated · first light 0603L · last light 1826L · Moon 31 % illuminated, rises 11:22, sets 23:10.
Extended Outlook
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind | F | F | F | F | G | G | G | G | G | F | G | F |
| Visibility | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A |
| Cloud / ceiling | A | A | A | F | F | F | G | E | E | E | F | G |
| Precipitation | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A |
| Thunderstorm | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
| Fog | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A |
| Overall | F | F | F | F | G | G | G | G | G | F | G | G |
A Excellent · B Good · C Fair · D Marginal (flyable) · E Poor · F Very Poor · G Unacceptable · (worst condition in each period)
Mon 16 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: clear, winds up to 11 kts ENE, gusting 17 kts and temperatures 19–35°C. Flyable windows: 0001–0600L (Marginal, 7 h) and 1800–2300L (Marginal, 6 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 23 (20–21)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (4–6) kts NE | 10 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 2. | 0100 | 22 (19–21)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (4–6) kts NE | 9 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 3. | 0200 | 22 (19–20)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (3–6) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 4. | 0300 | 21 (18–20)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (4–6) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 5. | 0400 | 20 (18–19)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (4–6) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 6. | 0500 | 20 (17–19)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (4–7) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 19 (17–18)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (4–7) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 19 (17–19)°C | Clear (0%) | 8 (4–8) kts ENE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 22 (20–21)°C | Clear (0%) | 8 (4–8) kts ENE | 14 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 10. | 0900 | 25 (23–24)°C | Clear (0%) | 9 (5–9) kts ENE | 16 kts | 1017 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 11. | 1000 | 28 (26–27)°C | Clear (0%) | 9 (6–10) kts ENE | 17 kts | 1017 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 12. | 1100 | 30 (28–30)°C | Clear (0%) | 9 (6–10) kts ENE | 17 kts | 1017 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 13. | 1200 | 33 (30–32)°C | Clear (0%) | 11 (6–10) kts ENE | 17 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 14. | 1300 | 34 (31–34)°C | Clear (0%) | 11 (5–9) kts ENE | 16 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 35 (32–34)°C | Clear (0%) | 10 (5–9) kts ENE | 17 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 16. | 1500 | 35 (32–35)°C | Clear (0%) | 10 (5–8) kts ENE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 17. | 1600 | 34 (31–34)°C | Clear (0%) | 9 (5–7) kts NE | 13 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 18. | 1700 | 33 (29–32)°C | Clear (0%) | 9 (4–7) kts NE | 12 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 19. | 1800 | 30 (27–28)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (4–6) kts NNE | 10 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 20. | 1900 | 28 (25–26)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (4–6) kts NNE | 9 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 21. | 2000 | 27 (23–25)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (4–6) kts NNE | 10 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 22. | 2100 | 26 (22–24)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (3–6) kts NNE | 10 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 23. | 2200 | 25 (22–23)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (3–6) kts NE | 10 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 24. | 2300 | 24 (21–22)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (3–6) kts NE | 10 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
Confidence: 73% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 17% of readings interpolated · first light 0603L · last light 1826L · Moon 40 % illuminated, rises 12:04, sets 23:58.
Tue 17 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Very Poor: clear, winds up to 11 kts ENE, gusting 17 kts and temperatures 19–35°C. Flyable windows: 0001–0600L (Marginal, 7 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall a deterioration from the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 23 (20–21)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (2–6) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 2. | 0100 | 22 (19–21)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (2–6) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 3. | 0200 | 22 (19–20)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (2–6) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 4. | 0300 | 21 (18–20)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (2–7) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 5. | 0400 | 21 (18–19)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (2–7) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 6. | 0500 | 20 (17–19)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (2–7) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 19 (17–18)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (3–8) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 19 (17–19)°C | Clear (0%) | 8 (3–8) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 21 (19–21)°C | Clear (0%) | 8 (3–9) kts ENE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 10. | 0900 | 25 (23–25)°C | Clear (0%) | 9 (3–9) kts ENE | 14 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 11. | 1000 | 28 (26–28)°C | Clear (0%) | 9 (3–9) kts ENE | 13 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 12. | 1100 | 30 (28–30)°C | Clear (0%) | 9 (3–9) kts ENE | 15 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 13. | 1200 | 33 (30–32)°C | Clear (0%) | 11 (3–9) kts ENE | 16 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 14. | 1300 | 34 (31–34)°C | Clear (0%) | 10 (4–8) kts ENE | 15 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 35 (31–34)°C | Clear (0%) | 10 (4–8) kts NE | 16 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 16. | 1500 | 35 (31–34)°C | Clear (0%) | 9 (4–7) kts NE | 17 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 17. | 1600 | 34 (31–33)°C | Clear (0%) | 9 (4–7) kts NE | 16 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 18. | 1700 | 32 (29–31)°C | Clear (0%) | 9 (4–6) kts NE | 15 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 19. | 1800 | 30 (26–28)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (3–6) kts NNE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 28 (24–26)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (3–5) kts NNE | 15 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 27 (23–25)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (4–6) kts NNE | 14 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 26 (22–24)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (4–6) kts NE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 23. | 2200 | 25 (21–23)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (4–6) kts NE | 14 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +6 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 24 (20–22)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (4–6) kts NE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
Confidence: 71% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 27% of readings interpolated · first light 0604L · last light 1826L · Moon 50 % illuminated, rises 12:44.
Wed 18 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Very Poor: clear, winds up to 11 kts ENE, gusting 17 kts and temperatures 19–34°C. Flyable windows: 0300–0400L (Marginal, 2 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 23 (19–21)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (4–6) kts NE | 12 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 2. | 0100 | 22 (19–20)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (3–6) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 3. | 0200 | 21 (18–20)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (3–6) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 4. | 0300 | 21 (18–19)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (3–6) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 5. | 0400 | 20 (17–19)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (3–7) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 6. | 0500 | 20 (17–18)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (3–7) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 19 (16–18)°C | Clear (0%) | 8 (3–8) kts ENE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 19 (17–18)°C | Clear (0%) | 8 (4–8) kts ENE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 22 (19–21)°C | Clear (0%) | 9 (4–9) kts ENE | 17 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 10. | 0900 | 25 (23–24)°C | Clear (0%) | 9 (5–9) kts ENE | 16 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 11. | 1000 | 27 (26–27)°C | Clear (0%) | 9 (5–9) kts ENE | 16 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 12. | 1100 | 29 (28–30)°C | Clear (0%) | 9 (5–9) kts ENE | 16 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 13. | 1200 | 33 (29–32)°C | Clear (0%) | 11 (5–9) kts ENE | 16 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 14. | 1300 | 34 (31–33)°C | Clear (0%) | 10 (4–9) kts ENE | 17 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 15. | 1400 | 34 (31–34)°C | Clear (2%) | 10 (4–9) kts NE | 17 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 16. | 1500 | 34 (31–34)°C | Clear (7%) | 9 (4–8) kts NE | 17 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 17. | 1600 | 34 (31–33)°C | Clear (7%) | 9 (4–8) kts NE | 17 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 18. | 1700 | 32 (29–31)°C | Clear (6%) | 9 (4–7) kts NE | 16 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 19. | 1800 | 30 (26–28)°C | Clear (5%) | 7 (4–6) kts NNE | 16 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt · gust spread +9 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 28 (24–26)°C | Clear (1%) | 7 (4–6) kts NNE | 15 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 26 (23–25)°C | Clear (1%) | 7 (4–6) kts NNE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 26 (22–24)°C | Clear (0%) | 8 (4–7) kts NE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 25 (21–23)°C | Clear (0%) | 8 (5–7) kts NE | 14 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 24. | 2300 | 24 (20–22)°C | Clear (2%) | 8 (4–7) kts NE | 14 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
Confidence: 71% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 26% of readings interpolated · first light 0604L · last light 1826L · Moon 60 % illuminated, rises 13:22, sets 00:46.
Thu 19 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Very Poor: partly cloudy, winds up to 10 kts ENE, gusting 17 kts and temperatures 19–34°C. No flyable windows (Marginal or better, ≥2 consecutive hrs) are forecast. Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 23 (19–21)°C | Clear (1%) | 7 (4–7) kts NE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 2. | 0100 | 22 (19–21)°C | Clear (3%) | 7 (3–7) kts NE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 3. | 0200 | 22 (18–20)°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 7 (4–7) kts NE | 12 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 4. | 0300 | 21 (18–20)°C | Mostly clear (26%) | 7 (4–7) kts ENE | 13 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 5. | 0400 | 21 (17–19)°C | Mostly clear (28%) | 7 (4–7) kts ENE | 13 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 6. | 0500 | 20 (17–19)°C | Partly cloudy (35%) | 7 (4–8) kts ENE | 13 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 19 (16–18)°C | Partly cloudy (41%) | 8 (4–8) kts ENE | 14 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 19 (17–19)°C | Partly cloudy (46%) | 9 (4–8) kts ENE | 14 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt
| gusts, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 21 (19–21)°C | Partly cloudy (43%) | 9 (4–9) kts ENE | 15 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 10. | 0900 | 24 (23–24)°C | Partly cloudy (40%) | 9 (5–9) kts ENE | 16 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 11. | 1000 | 27 (26–27)°C | Partly cloudy (39%) | 9 (5–9) kts ENE | 16 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 12. | 1100 | 29 (28–30)°C | Partly cloudy (53%) | 8 (5–9) kts ENE | 17 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt · gust spread +9 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 13. | 1200 | 33 (30–32)°C | Partly cloudy (55%) | 10 (4–9) kts ENE | 17 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, cloud cover, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 14. | 1300 | 34 (31–34)°C | Cloudy (62%) | 9 (4–9) kts ENE | 17 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | cloud 62% · gust 17 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 15. | 1400 | 34 (31–34)°C | Partly cloudy (59%) | 9 (3–8) kts NE | 16 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, cloud cover, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 16. | 1500 | 34 (30–34)°C | Cloudy (61%) | 8 (3–8) kts NE | 16 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | cloud 61% · gust 16 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 17. | 1600 | 34 (29–33)°C | Cloudy (61%) | 8 (2–7) kts NE | 16 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | cloud 61% · gust 16 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 18. | 1700 | 32 (28–31)°C | Cloudy (60%) | 8 (3–7) kts NNE | 16 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, cloud cover, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 19. | 1800 | 30 (26–28)°C | Partly cloudy (59%) | 7 (4–7) kts NNE | 16 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt · gust spread +9 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 28 (25–26)°C | Cloudy (63%) | 7 (4–6) kts NNE | 15 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | cloud 63% · gust 15 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 28 (23–25)°C | Partly cloudy (59%) | 7 (4–6) kts NNE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, cloud cover, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 27 (22–24)°C | Cloudy (60%) | 7 (4–6) kts NE | 14 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | cloud 60% · gust 14 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 25 (22–23)°C | Partly cloudy (59%) | 7 (4–6) kts NE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | cloud 59% · gust 13 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 24. | 2300 | 24 (21–22)°C | Cloudy (60%) | 7 (3–6) kts NE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | cloud 60% · gust 13 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
Confidence: 70% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 15% of readings interpolated · first light 0604L · last light 1826L · Moon 69 % illuminated, rises 14:00, sets 01:33.
Fri 20 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Very Poor: mostly clear, winds up to 11 kts ENE, gusting 18 kts and temperatures 20–34°C. Flyable windows: 0300–0400L (Marginal, 2 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 23 (20–22)°C | Cloudy (60%) | 6 (3–6) kts NE | 12 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | cloud 60% · gust 12 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 2. | 0100 | 23 (19–21)°C | Cloudy (64%) | 7 (2–7) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | cloud 64%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 3. | 0200 | 22 (19–20)°C | Partly cloudy (52%) | 7 (3–7) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | cloud 52%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 4. | 0300 | 21 (18–20)°C | Partly cloudy (43%) | 7 (3–7) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · cloud 43%
| ⚠ cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 5. | 0400 | 21 (17–19)°C | Partly cloudy (34%) | 7 (3–7) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 6. | 0500 | 20 (17–19)°C | Mostly clear (25%) | 7 (3–8) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 20 (17–19)°C | Mostly clear (16%) | 8 (3–8) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 20 (17–19)°C | Clear (9%) | 8 (4–8) kts ENE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 22 (19–21)°C | Clear (12%) | 8 (4–9) kts ENE | 14 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 10. | 0900 | 24 (22–24)°C | Mostly clear (15%) | 9 (5–9) kts ENE | 15 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 11. | 1000 | 26 (25–27)°C | Mostly clear (17%) | 9 (6–10) kts ENE | 15 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 12. | 1100 | 29 (27–30)°C | Mostly clear (17%) | 9 (5–10) kts ENE | 16 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 13. | 1200 | 33 (30–32)°C | Mostly clear (15%) | 11 (5–10) kts ENE | 17 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 14. | 1300 | 34 (31–34)°C | Clear (11%) | 11 (5–10) kts ENE | 17 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 34 (31–35)°C | Clear (12%) | 10 (4–10) kts NE | 17 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 16. | 1500 | 34 (30–35)°C | Clear (10%) | 10 (4–9) kts NE | 17 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 17. | 1600 | 33 (29–34)°C | Clear (7%) | 10 (4–9) kts NE | 17 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 18. | 1700 | 32 (28–32)°C | Clear (6%) | 10 (4–8) kts NE | 17 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 19. | 1800 | 30 (27–28)°C | Clear (4%) | 8 (4–8) kts NNE | 18 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt · gust spread +10 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 29 (25–26)°C | Clear (0%) | 8 (4–8) kts NNE | 18 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt · gust spread +10 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 28 (24–25)°C | Clear (2%) | 7 (4–7) kts NNE | 17 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +10 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 27 (23–25)°C | Clear (2%) | 7 (4–7) kts NE | 16 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt · gust spread +9 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 26 (22–24)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (4–7) kts NE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 25 (21–23)°C | Clear (1%) | 7 (4–7) kts NE | 14 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 71% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 15% of readings interpolated · first light 0605L · last light 1826L · Moon 79 % illuminated, rises 14:39, sets 02:21.
Sat 21 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Unacceptable: mostly clear, winds up to 12 kts ENE, gusting 21 kts and temperatures 20–34°C. No flyable windows (Marginal or better, ≥2 consecutive hrs) are forecast. Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall a deterioration from the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 24 (20–22)°C | Clear (1%) | 7 (4–7) kts NE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 2. | 0100 | 23°C | Clear (2%) | 7 kts ENE | 14 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 22°C | Clear (4%) | 7 kts ENE | 14 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 21 (spread 21–22)°C | Clear (5%) | 7 kts ENE | 14 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 5. | 0400 | 21°C | Clear (6%) | 7 kts ENE | 14 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 6. | 0500 | 21 (spread 20–21)°C | Clear (7%) | 7 (spread 7–8) kts ENE | 15 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 20°C | Clear (7%) | 8 kts ENE | 16 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 20°C | Clear (6%) | 8 (spread 8–9) kts ENE | 16 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 22°C | Clear (12%) | 9 kts ENE | 17 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 10. | 0900 | 24 (spread 24–25)°C | Mostly clear (18%) | 9 (spread 9–10) kts ENE | 17 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 11. | 1000 | 27°C | Mostly clear (24%) | 10 kts ENE | 18 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 12. | 1100 | 29°C | Mostly clear (31%) | 10 kts ENE | 18 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 13. | 1200 | 33 (spread 32–33)°C | Partly cloudy (38%) | 12 (spread 12–13) kts ENE | 18 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt
| gusts, strong wind, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 14. | 1300 | 34 (spread 34–35)°C | Partly cloudy (43%) | 12 (spread 12–13) kts ENE | 18 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt
| gusts, strong wind, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 34 (spread 34–35)°C | Partly cloudy (41%) | 12 (spread 11–12) kts NE | 19 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt
| gusts, strong wind, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 16. | 1500 | 34°C | Partly cloudy (36%) | 12 (spread 11–12) kts NE | 19 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt
| gusts, strong wind, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 17. | 1600 | 33°C | Mostly clear (30%) | 11 (spread 10–11) kts NE | 19 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 18. | 1700 | 32°C | Mostly clear (25%) | 11 (spread 10–11) kts NE | 20 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 20 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 19. | 1800 | 30 (spread 29–30)°C | Mostly clear (21%) | 8 kts NE | 21 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 21 kt · gust spread +12 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 28 (spread 28–29)°C | Mostly clear (19%) | 8 kts NE | 21 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 21 kt · gust spread +13 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 27 (spread 27–28)°C | Mostly clear (28%) | 8 kts NE | 21 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 21 kt · gust spread +13 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 26 (spread 26–27)°C | Partly cloudy (39%) | 8 kts NE | 20 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 20 kt · gust spread +13 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 25 (spread 25–26)°C | Partly cloudy (52%) | 8 kts NE | 19 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt · gust spread +12 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 25 (spread 24–25)°C | Cloudy (65%) | 8 kts NE | 18 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt · gust spread +11 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 70% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 15% of readings interpolated · first light 0605L · last light 1826L · Moon 87 % illuminated, rises 15:21, sets 03:11.
Sun 22 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Unacceptable: partly cloudy, winds up to 12 kts NE, gusting 20 kts and temperatures 20–34°C. No flyable windows (Marginal or better, ≥2 consecutive hrs) are forecast. Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 24 (spread 23–24)°C | Cloudy (76%) | 7 kts NE | 17 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 76% · gust spread +11 kt
| cloud cover, wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 23 (spread 22–23)°C | Cloudy (84%) | 7 kts ENE | 17 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 84% · gust spread +10 kt
| cloud cover, wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 22 (spread 22–23)°C | Cloudy (76%) | 7 (spread 7–8) kts ENE | 17 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 76% · gust spread +10 kt
| cloud cover, wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 22 (spread 21–22)°C | Cloudy (64%) | 7 (spread 7–8) kts ENE | 18 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt · gust spread +10 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 5. | 0400 | 21 (spread 21–22)°C | Partly cloudy (51%) | 8 kts ENE | 18 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt · gust spread +11 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 6. | 0500 | 21°C | Partly cloudy (37%) | 8 kts ENE | 19 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt · gust spread +11 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 20°C | Mostly clear (26%) | 9 kts ENE | 19 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt · gust spread +10 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 20 (spread 20–21)°C | Mostly clear (17%) | 9 (spread 9–10) kts ENE | 20 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 20 kt · gust spread +10 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 22°C | Mostly clear (22%) | 10 kts ENE | 20 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 20 kt · gust spread +10 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 10. | 0900 | 24 (spread 24–25)°C | Mostly clear (30%) | 10 (spread 10–11) kts ENE | 19 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 11. | 1000 | 27 (spread 26–27)°C | Partly cloudy (40%) | 10 (spread 10–11) kts NE | 19 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 12. | 1100 | 29°C | Partly cloudy (50%) | 10 (spread 10–11) kts NE | 19 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 13. | 1200 | 32 (spread 32–33)°C | Partly cloudy (59%) | 12 (spread 12–13) kts NE | 19 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt
| gusts, cloud cover, strong wind, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 14. | 1300 | 34 (spread 33–35)°C | Cloudy (64%) | 12 (spread 11–12) kts NE | 18 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt
| gusts, cloud cover, strong wind, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 34°C | Cloudy (63%) | 11 (spread 11–12) kts NE | 18 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt
| gusts, cloud cover, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 16. | 1500 | 33 (spread 33–34)°C | Partly cloudy (59%) | 11 (spread 10–11) kts NE | 18 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt
| gusts, cloud cover, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 17. | 1600 | 33°C | Partly cloudy (54%) | 10 (spread 9–11) kts NE | 18 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt
| gusts, cloud cover, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 18. | 1700 | 31 (spread 31–32)°C | Partly cloudy (49%) | 10 (spread 9–10) kts NE | 18 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 19. | 1800 | 29 (spread 29–30)°C | Partly cloudy (43%) | 7 (spread 6–8) kts NE | 19 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt · gust spread +12 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 28 (spread 28–29)°C | Partly cloudy (39%) | 7 (spread 6–7) kts NE | 19 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt · gust spread +13 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 27 (spread 27–28)°C | Partly cloudy (38%) | 7 (spread 6–7) kts NE | 19 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt · gust spread +12 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 26 (spread 26–27)°C | Partly cloudy (37%) | 7 kts NE | 17 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +10 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 25 (spread 25–26)°C | Partly cloudy (37%) | 7 (spread 7–8) kts NE | 16 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 24 (spread 24–25)°C | Partly cloudy (36%) | 7 (spread 6–8) kts NE | 14 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +6 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 69% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 16% of readings interpolated · first light 0606L · last light 1826L · Moon 93 % illuminated, rises 16:07, sets 04:05.
Mon 23 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Very Poor: partly cloudy, winds up to 10 kts ENE, gusting 20 kts and temperatures 19–34°C. Flyable windows: 0001–0400L (Marginal, 5 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall an improvement on the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 23 (spread 23–24)°C | Partly cloudy (35%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts NE | 11 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 2. | 0100 | 22 (spread 22–23)°C | Partly cloudy (33%) | 7 (spread 5–7) kts NE | 10 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 3. | 0200 | 22°C | Mostly clear (31%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 4. | 0300 | 21 (spread 21–22)°C | Mostly clear (28%) | 7 (spread 6–8) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 5. | 0400 | 21 (spread 20–21)°C | Mostly clear (24%) | 7 (spread 6–8) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 6. | 0500 | 20 (spread 20–21)°C | Mostly clear (21%) | 7 (spread 7–8) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 19 (spread 19–20)°C | Mostly clear (18%) | 8 kts ENE | 13 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 19 (spread 19–20)°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 8 kts ENE | 14 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 21 (spread 21–22)°C | Mostly clear (16%) | 8 kts ENE | 15 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 10. | 0900 | 24 (spread 23–24)°C | Mostly clear (18%) | 8 kts ENE | 15 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 11. | 1000 | 26 (spread 26–27)°C | Mostly clear (20%) | 8 kts ENE | 16 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 12. | 1100 | 29 (spread 28–29)°C | Mostly clear (23%) | 8 kts ENE | 16 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 13. | 1200 | 32 (spread 32–33)°C | Mostly clear (27%) | 10 (spread 9–10) kts ENE | 16 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 14. | 1300 | 34°C | Mostly clear (29%) | 9 (spread 9–10) kts ENE | 15 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 34°C | Partly cloudy (39%) | 9 kts ENE | 20 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 20 kt · gust spread +10 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 16. | 1500 | 33°C | Partly cloudy (46%) | 9 kts NE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 17. | 1600 | 33°C | Partly cloudy (51%) | 8 kts NE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 18. | 1700 | 31°C | Partly cloudy (56%) | 8 kts NE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, cloud cover, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 19. | 1800 | 29°C | Partly cloudy (57%) | 6 kts NNE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt · gust spread +10 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 28°C | Partly cloudy (58%) | 6 kts NNE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt · gust spread +10 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 27°C | Partly cloudy (57%) | 6 kts NE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt · gust spread +10 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 26°C | Partly cloudy (54%) | 6 kts NE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt · gust spread +9 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 25°C | Partly cloudy (52%) | 6 kts NE | 14 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | cloud 52% · gust 14 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 24°C | Partly cloudy (51%) | 6 kts ENE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 69% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 8% of readings interpolated · first light 0606L · last light 1826L · Moon 98 % illuminated, rises 16:59, sets 05:03.
Tue 24 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Poor: partly cloudy, winds up to 8 kts NNE, gusting 16 kts and temperatures 19–35°C. Flyable windows: 0001–0100L (Marginal, 2 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall an improvement on the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 23°C | Partly cloudy (50%) | 5 kts ENE | 11 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · cloud 50%
| ⚠ cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 2. | 0100 | 22°C | Partly cloudy (51%) | 5 kts ENE | 10 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · cloud 51%
| ⚠ cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 3. | 0200 | 21°C | Partly cloudy (52%) | 5 kts ENE | 10 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | cloud 52%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 4. | 0300 | 21°C | Partly cloudy (54%) | 6 kts ENE | 10 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | cloud 54%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 5. | 0400 | 20°C | Partly cloudy (56%) | 6 kts ENE | 10 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | cloud 56%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 6. | 0500 | 20°C | Partly cloudy (57%) | 6 kts ENE | 11 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | cloud 57%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 19°C | Partly cloudy (57%) | 7 kts ENE | 12 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | cloud 57% · gust 12 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 19°C | Partly cloudy (55%) | 7 kts ENE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | cloud 55% · gust 13 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 21°C | Partly cloudy (50%) | 7 kts ENE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 10. | 0900 | 24°C | Partly cloudy (44%) | 7 kts ENE | 14 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 11. | 1000 | 27°C | Partly cloudy (37%) | 7 kts ENE | 14 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 12. | 1100 | 29°C | Mostly clear (28%) | 6 kts ENE | 14 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 13. | 1200 | 33°C | Mostly clear (21%) | 8 kts ENE | 14 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 14. | 1300 | 35°C | Mostly clear (16%) | 8 kts NE | 13 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 35°C | Mostly clear (16%) | 8 kts NE | 13 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 16. | 1500 | 34°C | Mostly clear (15%) | 8 kts NE | 12 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 17. | 1600 | 33°C | Mostly clear (14%) | 8 kts NNE | 12 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 18. | 1700 | 32°C | Mostly clear (15%) | 8 kts NNE | 13 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 19. | 1800 | 30°C | Mostly clear (16%) | 7 kts NNE | 14 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 28°C | Mostly clear (17%) | 7 kts NNE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 27°C | Mostly clear (16%) | 7 kts NNE | 15 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 26°C | Mostly clear (15%) | 7 kts NE | 16 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt · gust spread +9 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 25°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 6 kts NE | 16 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +9 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 24°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 7 kts ENE | 15 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 69% — data for 24 of 24 hours · first light 0606L · last light 1827L · Moon 100 % illuminated, rises 17:58, sets 06:06.
Wed 25 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Very Poor: partly cloudy, winds up to 7 kts E, gusting 16 kts and temperatures 19–35°C. Flyable windows: 1600–1700L (Marginal, 2 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall a deterioration from the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 23°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 6 kts ENE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt · gust spread +9 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 22°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 6 kts ENE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt · gust spread +9 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 21°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 6 kts ENE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt · gust spread +9 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 20°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 6 kts ENE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt · gust spread +9 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 5. | 0400 | 20°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 6 kts ENE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt · gust spread +9 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 6. | 0500 | 19°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 6 kts ENE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt · gust spread +9 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 19°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 7 kts ENE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 19°C | Mostly clear (14%) | 7 kts ENE | 16 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt · gust spread +9 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 21°C | Mostly clear (19%) | 7 kts ENE | 15 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 10. | 0900 | 24°C | Mostly clear (27%) | 6 kts ENE | 15 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 11. | 1000 | 27°C | Partly cloudy (36%) | 6 kts ENE | 14 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 12. | 1100 | 29°C | Partly cloudy (46%) | 5 kts ENE | 14 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust spread +8 kt
| wind shear, gusts, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 13. | 1200 | 33°C | Partly cloudy (54%) | 7 kts E | 13 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | cloud 54% · gust 13 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 14. | 1300 | 35°C | Partly cloudy (59%) | 7 kts E | 12 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | cloud 59% · gust 12 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 35°C | Partly cloudy (55%) | 6 kts E | 11 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | cloud 55%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 16. | 1500 | 34°C | Partly cloudy (47%) | 6 kts ENE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 17. | 1600 | 34°C | Partly cloudy (39%) | 6 kts NE | 10 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 18. | 1700 | 32°C | Mostly clear (32%) | 6 kts NNE | 10 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 19. | 1800 | 30°C | Mostly clear (29%) | 4 kts NNE | 11 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust spread +7 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 20. | 1900 | 29°C | Mostly clear (29%) | 5 kts NNE | 12 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 28°C | Partly cloudy (33%) | 5 kts NNE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 27°C | Partly cloudy (41%) | 5 kts NNE | 14 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust spread +9 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 26°C | Partly cloudy (49%) | 6 kts NE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt · gust spread +9 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 25°C | Partly cloudy (58%) | 6 kts NE | 15 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt · gust spread +9 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 68% — data for 24 of 24 hours · first light 0607L · last light 1827L · Moon 99 % illuminated, rises 19:02, sets 07:13.
Thu 26 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Poor: partly cloudy, winds up to 8 kts NE, gusting 15 kts and temperatures 20–35°C. No flyable windows (Marginal or better, ≥2 consecutive hrs) are forecast. Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall an improvement on the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 24°C | Cloudy (64%) | 5 kts NE | 15 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +10 kt
| wind shear, cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 23°C | Cloudy (68%) | 5 kts ENE | 15 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +10 kt
| wind shear, cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 22°C | Cloudy (68%) | 5 kts ENE | 15 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +10 kt
| wind shear, cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 22°C | Cloudy (67%) | 5 kts ENE | 15 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +9 kt
| wind shear, cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 5. | 0400 | 21°C | Cloudy (65%) | 5 kts ENE | 14 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | cloud 65% · gust spread +9 kt
| cloud cover, wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 6. | 0500 | 20°C | Cloudy (62%) | 5 kts ENE | 14 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | cloud 62% · gust spread +9 kt
| cloud cover, wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 20°C | Partly cloudy (59%) | 6 kts ENE | 14 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | cloud 59% · gust 14 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 20°C | Partly cloudy (56%) | 6 kts ENE | 14 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | cloud 56% · gust 14 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 22°C | Partly cloudy (50%) | 6 kts ENE | 13 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 10. | 0900 | 24°C | Partly cloudy (44%) | 6 kts ENE | 13 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 11. | 1000 | 27°C | Partly cloudy (38%) | 6 kts ENE | 13 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 12. | 1100 | 30°C | Mostly clear (32%) | 5 kts ENE | 13 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 13. | 1200 | 33°C | Mostly clear (28%) | 8 kts ENE | 12 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 14. | 1300 | 35°C | Mostly clear (24%) | 7 kts ENE | 12 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 35°C | Mostly clear (23%) | 7 kts ENE | 11 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 16. | 1500 | 35°C | Mostly clear (23%) | 7 kts NE | 12 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 17. | 1600 | 34°C | Mostly clear (24%) | 7 kts NE | 12 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 18. | 1700 | 33°C | Mostly clear (25%) | 8 kts NE | 12 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 19. | 1800 | 31°C | Mostly clear (26%) | 6 kts NE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 29°C | Mostly clear (28%) | 6 kts NE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 28°C | Mostly clear (31%) | 6 kts NE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 27°C | Partly cloudy (35%) | 6 kts NE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 26°C | Partly cloudy (40%) | 6 kts ENE | 12 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 24. | 2300 | 25°C | Partly cloudy (45%) | 5 kts ENE | 12 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · gust spread +6 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 69% — data for 24 of 24 hours · first light 0607L · last light 1827L · Moon 95 % illuminated, rises 20:09, sets 08:20.
Fri 27 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Poor: partly cloudy, winds up to 8 kts ENE, gusting 15 kts and temperatures 20–36°C. Flyable windows: 0300–0400L (Marginal, 2 h) and 2200–2300L (Marginal, 2 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 24°C | Partly cloudy (49%) | 4 kts ENE | 12 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 23°C | Partly cloudy (51%) | 4 kts ENE | 11 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust spread +7 kt
| wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 3. | 0200 | 22°C | Partly cloudy (52%) | 4 kts ENE | 11 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | cloud 52% · gust spread +7 kt
| cloud cover, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 4. | 0300 | 22°C | Partly cloudy (51%) | 5 kts ENE | 11 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · cloud 51%
| ⚠ cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 5. | 0400 | 21°C | Partly cloudy (49%) | 5 kts ENE | 11 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · cloud 49%
| ⚠ cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 6. | 0500 | 21°C | Partly cloudy (47%) | 5 kts ENE | 12 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · gust spread +6 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 20°C | Partly cloudy (46%) | 6 kts ENE | 12 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, wind shear, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 20°C | Partly cloudy (47%) | 7 kts ENE | 13 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, wind shear, fog risk 14 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 22°C | Partly cloudy (51%) | 7 kts ENE | 13 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 10. | 0900 | 25°C | Partly cloudy (58%) | 7 kts ENE | 13 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | cloud 58% · gust 13 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 11. | 1000 | 28°C | Cloudy (66%) | 7 kts ENE | 14 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | cloud 66%
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 12. | 1100 | 30°C | Cloudy (73%) | 6 kts ENE | 14 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 73%
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 13. | 1200 | 34°C | Cloudy (78%) | 8 kts ENE | 13 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 78%
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 14. | 1300 | 36°C | Cloudy (79%) | 8 kts ENE | 13 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 79%
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 36°C | Cloudy (73%) | 8 kts ENE | 13 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 73%
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 16. | 1500 | 35°C | Cloudy (63%) | 7 kts NE | 13 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | cloud 63%
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 17. | 1600 | 34°C | Partly cloudy (52%) | 7 kts NE | 12 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | cloud 52% · gust 12 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 18. | 1700 | 33°C | Partly cloudy (41%) | 8 kts NE | 12 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 19. | 1800 | 31°C | Partly cloudy (34%) | 6 kts NNE | 11 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 20. | 1900 | 29°C | Mostly clear (29%) | 6 kts NNE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt · gust spread +9 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 28°C | Mostly clear (29%) | 6 kts NNE | 14 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 27°C | Mostly clear (32%) | 6 kts NE | 14 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 26°C | Partly cloudy (38%) | 6 kts NE | 11 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 24. | 2300 | 25°C | Partly cloudy (45%) | 7 kts NE | 11 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · cloud 45%
| ⚠ cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
Confidence: 69% — data for 24 of 24 hours · first light 0608L · last light 1827L · Moon 88 % illuminated, rises 21:16, sets 09:25.
TAF
No current TAF — last issued 10 Nov 11:00Z, expired 11 Nov 18:00Z
Imagery
Source panel
| Source | Accuracy | Skill n | Temp °C | Wind kt | Visibility | Storm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) |
| Open-Meteo Ensemble (ECMWF IFS + GEFS) | ≈ 1.1 | 2868 | 17–19 | 5–6 | — | 0 % |
| Met.no (Yr) | ▲ 1.1 | 2159 | 20–21 | 7–8 | — | 0 % |
| Open-Meteo | ▲ 1.1 | 6401 | 19–21 | 7–8 | 10+ km | 0 % |
| OpenWeather | ≈ 1.1 | 998 | 18–19 | 5 | 10+ km | 0 % |
| Visual Crossing | ▲ 1.1 | 5635 | 19–20 | 7–8 | 10+ km | 0 % |
Each source's own raw values, min–max over the next 6 hours from the issue hour (before any weighting or bias correction). — means the source does not publish that metric in the window. Wide gaps between rows are real disagreement; the forecast above weights sources by measured skill.
Reading this report
Grades: each hour carries one grade, set by its WORST factor. The bands below are the thresholds in force for this report (Settings); a value in a band earns that grade, and "-" means the factor never produces that grade. Cloud is graded on the worse of cover and ceiling. The Driver column names the limiting factor with its value; open it in the web report for the boundary and sources.
| Grade | Cloud cover | Cloud ceiling | Visibility | Wind | Gust | Rain chance | Thunderstorm probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) |
| A Excellent | ≤ 17.1% | ≥ 30000 ft | ≥ 8000 m | < 3 kt | < 3 kt | < 5% | 0% |
| B Good | 17.1–34.3% | 26000–30000 ft | 6666.7–8000 m | 3–6 kt | 3–6 kt | 5–10% | - |
| C Fair | 34.3–42.9% | 24000–26000 ft | 5333.3–6666.7 m | 6–9 kt | 6–9 kt | 10–15% | - |
| D Marginal | 42.9–51.4% | 22000–24000 ft | 4000–5333.3 m | 9–12 kt | 9–12 kt | 15–20% | >0–15% |
| E Poor | 51.4–60% | 16000–22000 ft | 2666.7–4000 m | 12–15 kt | 12–15 kt | 20–25% | 15–30% |
| F Very Poor | 60–68.6% | 10000–16000 ft | 1333.3–2666.7 m | 15–18 kt | 15–18 kt | 25–30% | 30–60% |
| G Unacceptable | > 68.6% | < 10000 ft | < 1333.3 m | ≥ 18 kt | ≥ 18 kt | ≥ 30% | > 60% |
Flight windows: a window is at least 2 consecutive hours graded Marginal or better; an hour with insufficient data never counts toward one. ☾ marks a window outside first-to-last light.
Time: hours are local time (WAT, UTC+1) unless suffixed Z, which is UTC (TAF, METAR and issue times). Local midnight is labelled 0001.
Units: temperature °C · wind and gusts knots · visibility metres (km in text) · cloud ceiling feet · cloud cover % · rain chance and thunderstorm probability % · QNH hPa (altimeter setting at the field) · CAPE J/kg. A figure like "28 (26–30)°C" gives the p10–p90 range; "spread" marks disagreement between sources.
Symbols: ▲ better than the pool · ▽ worse (only when the 95% interval excludes the pool) · ≈ not distinguishable from the pool · unmarked = unproven (accuracy is measured against METAR and SYNOP observations). ⚠ on a remark means a low-confidence hour; a ⚠ paragraph on the first page is a convective-warning or data-age advisory. ⚡ is lightning observed by satellite near the field (©EUMETSAT).
Hourly glyphs: the wind arrow points the way the air moves (a north wind is ↓, an east wind ←); cloud cover shows as ☀ ◔ ◑ ◕ ☁ (clear, few, scattered, broken, overcast); a shaded hour label is wholly before first light or after last light.
Terms: "No data" - no source forecast the hour, or a core group (cloud, visibility, wind) is missing and the hour could still be flyable; missing data is never given a good grade. "Low-confidence" - few or weak sources behind the load-bearing metrics; treat the grade as indicative. "Insufficient data" - too little to grade at all. "Estimated" (est.) - the value is derived, not reported by a source (dust visibility, cloud base, gusts); it is declared where used and weighted at half. "Derived" - an hour interpolated from a coarser (3-hourly or daily) source, weighted at half and never used to score accuracy.
Data provenance
| Source | Fetched (Z) | Age | Skill n | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) |
| Aviation Weather Center (aviationweather.gov) | 14 Nov 01:29Z | 2 min | 287 | ≈ 1.0 |
| Open-Meteo Ensemble (ECMWF IFS + GEFS) | 14 Nov 01:30Z | 2 min | 2868 | ≈ 1.1 |
| Met.no (Yr) | 14 Nov 01:30Z | 1 min | 2159 | ▲ 1.1 |
| Open-Meteo | 14 Nov 01:30Z | 1 min | 6401 | ▲ 1.1 |
| OpenWeather | 14 Nov 01:29Z | 2 min | 998 | ≈ 1.1 |
| Visual Crossing | 14 Nov 01:29Z | 2 min | 5635 | ▲ 1.1 |
Corrections applied (detailed under Learned corrections on the first page): skill weighting, bias correction, hour-of-day bias, cloud-base estimate, probability calibration, fog risk, climatology bounds, skill blend.
How accurate have we been
Measured against observations (METAR/SYNOP), kaduna only. Verification table computed 2026-11-14. Mean absolute error (MAE): lower is better; "beats persistence" compares the best source with "it will stay as it is now" on the same hours.
| Metric | Best source | Best MAE | Typical MAE | Persistence MAE | Beats persistence by | Pairs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) |
| Temperature (°C) | foreca | 1.0 | 1.5 | 5.2 | 84 % | 196 |
| Dew point (°C) | accuweather | 0.9 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 52 % | 28 |
| Wind speed (kt) | ukmo | 2.1 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 21 % | 845 |
| Visibility (m) | aviationweather | 727 | 1052 | 1276 | 3 % | 121 |
| Cloud cover (%) | accuweather | 21 | 48 | 10 | - | 28 |
Learned bias (forecast minus observed; positive = sources run high), mean over scored sources, by local time of day. These are corrected for before sources are averaged.
| Metric | Overall | Night | Morning | Afternoon | Evening | Pairs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) |
| Temperature (°C) | -0.7 | -0.5 | -0.0 | -1.2 | -0.9 | 17435 |
| Dew point (°C) | -2.2 | -0.3 | -2.5 | -2.2 | -2.3 | 16368 |
| Wind speed (kt) | -2.1 | -0.3 | -1.3 | -3.3 | -1.7 | 17559 |
Not yet available: Scores are decayed over the verification window (half-life 14 days); separate last-7-day and last-30-day windows are not stored. Bias is the current learned value; the history needed for a trend over time is not stored. Flight-window hit / bust / miss is not yet recorded.