Maiduguri — 14-Day Forecast

DNMA · issued 12 Nov 26 00:51Z

Sources used (9): Aviation Weather Center (aviationweather.gov)≈ 1.0 Copernicus CAMS (via Open-Meteo) ECMWF▲ 1.2 Canada GEM▲ 1.2 NOAA GFS▽ 0.9 DWD ICON▲ 1.3 JMA GSM▽ 0.9 UK Met Office▲ 1.1 wttr.in▽ 0.9

▲ better than the pool · ▽ worse (only when the 95% interval excludes the pool) · ≈ not distinguishable from the pool · unmarked = unproven (accuracy is measured against METAR and SYNOP observations)

Thu12 Nov 26

BDDDDDDDDDEEEEEEEDDDDDDD

0001–0900L (Good, 10 h) ☾ 1700–2300L (Marginal, 7 h) ☾

73%

Fri13 Nov 26

DDDDDDDDDDEEEDDDDDDDDDDD

0001–0900L (Marginal, 10 h) ☾ 1300–2300L (Marginal, 11 h) ☾

72%

Sat14 Nov 26

DDDDDDDDDDDEEEEDDDDDDDDD

0001–1000L (Marginal, 11 h) ☾ 1500–2300L (Marginal, 9 h) ☾

73%

Sun15 Nov 26

DDDDDDDDDDDEEEEEEDDDDDDD

0001–1000L (Marginal, 11 h) ☾ 1700–2300L (Marginal, 7 h) ☾

72%

Mon16 Nov 26

DDDDDDDDDDEEEEEEEDDDDDDD

0001–0900L (Marginal, 10 h) ☾ 1700–2300L (Marginal, 7 h) ☾

74%

Tue17 Nov 26

DDDDDDDDDDEEEEEEEDDDDDDD

best window: 0001–0900L (Marginal, 10 h) ☾ 1700–2300L (Marginal, 7 h) ☾

76%

Wed18 Nov 26

DDDDDDDDDDEEFFFEEE······

0001–0900L (Marginal, 10 h) ☾

75%

Thu19 Nov 26

···E·EEEEEEEEFFFFFFGGEEE

no windows

64%

Fri20 Nov 26

E·EE·EFEFFFFFGGGGFGGGFEE

no windows

64%

Sat21 Nov 26

EEE··EGFGFFFFFFGGGGGGGFG

no windows

62%

Sun22 Nov 26

F·······················

no windows

A ExcellentB GoodC FairD MarginalE PoorF Very PoorG Unacceptable· No data

Best window (highest confidence, then grade, then length): Tue 17 Nov 26 0001–0900L (Marginal, 10 h) ☾, confidence 76%.

Learned corrections (METAR-verified): skill weighting — pooled all-field scores for 206; bias corrections — openweather wind −4.5 kt, wttr.in wind −4.1 kt, meteoblue dewpoint +3.0 °C, openmeteo dewpoint +3.0 °C, metno dewpoint +3.0 °C, foreca dewpoint +3.0 °C (+67 more); hour-of-day bias (local time, shrunk toward the all-hours bias) — openweather afternoon wind −5.0 kt, wttr.in evening wind −4.4 kt, wttr.in afternoon wind −3.9 kt, openweather evening wind −3.8 kt, openweather night wind −3.7 kt, NOAA GFS afternoon wind −3.7 kt (+284 more); cloud base estimated as 410 ft per °C of dewpoint spread for sources that report no ceiling (≥60% cloud cover; flagged estimated, weighted ×0.5); probability calibration — rain chance: meteoblue, openmeteo, foreca, metcheck, openweather, visualcrossing, tomorrowio, wttr.in, ECMWF, NOAA GFS, DWD ICON, UK Met Office, Canada GEM, ecmwfens; storm: openmeteo, metno, foreca, openweather, visualcrossing, tomorrowio, wttr.in, ECMWF, NOAA GFS, DWD ICON, meteofrance, Aviation Weather Center (aviationweather.gov), UK Met Office, JMA GSM, Canada GEM, ecmwfens, aifs (each source's stated probability mapped to its verified frequency by an isotonic fit on ≥200 pairs, proven on the holdout); fog risk (n=1834): observed fog frequency by dewpoint spread, wind, local hour and season for the forecast conditions (shown from 10 %), proven on the holdout; plausibility bounds from ERA5 climatology 2016-2025 (mean ± 5 sd; screening only, not observed truth); skill blend 1 auto-tuned over 10419 holdout pairs (consensus beat the best single source, tomorrowio, by 15%); correction gates (newest-7-day holdout; pooled skill is always on) — regional skill: off this week (did not improve holdout); place skill: off this week (did not improve holdout); lead-time skill: off this week (did not improve holdout); small-sample skill shrinkage: off this week (did not improve holdout); bias correction: on (improved holdout by 22.8%); place bias: on (improved holdout by 9.6%); hour-of-day bias: on (improved holdout by 6.4%); QNH bias: on (improved holdout by 57.3%); gust estimates: off this week (did not improve holdout); cloud-base coefficient: off this week (insufficient holdout: 78 of 200 items); recent-form skill: off this week (did not improve holdout); probability calibration: on (improved holdout by 22.5%); nowcast anchor horizon: off this week (did not improve holdout); dust-visibility estimate: off this week (did not improve holdout); fog risk: on (improved holdout by 11.0%).

Outlook

Day	Date	Outlook	Temp	Max wind	Flight windows	Confidence	Notes
(a)	(b)	(c)	(d)	(e)	(f)	(g)	(h)
Thu	12 Nov 26	Marginal	18–34°C	7 kts ENE, g 13	0001–0900L (Good, 10 h) ☾; 1700–2300L (Marginal, 7 h) ☾	73%	16% interpolated
Fri	13 Nov 26	Marginal	16–33°C	7 kts ENE, g 12	0001–0900L (Marginal, 10 h) ☾; 1300–2300L (Marginal, 11 h) ☾	72%	17% interpolated
Sat	14 Nov 26	Marginal	16–35°C	7 kts NE, g 13	0001–1000L (Marginal, 11 h) ☾; 1500–2300L (Marginal, 9 h) ☾	73%	17% interpolated
Sun	15 Nov 26	Marginal	17–37°C	7 kts ENE, g 14	0001–1000L (Marginal, 11 h) ☾; 1700–2300L (Marginal, 7 h) ☾	72%	6% interpolated
Mon	16 Nov 26	Marginal	18–37°C	8 kts NE, g 14	0001–0900L (Marginal, 10 h) ☾; 1700–2300L (Marginal, 7 h) ☾	74%	7% interpolated
Tue	17 Nov 26	Marginal	18–36°C	8 kts NE, g 14	0001–0900L (Marginal, 10 h) ☾; 1700–2300L (Marginal, 7 h) ☾	76%	8% interpolated
Wed	18 Nov 26	Marginal	18–36°C	8 kts NNE, g 15	0001–0900L (Marginal, 10 h) ☾	75%	9% interpolated
Thu	19 Nov 26	Poor	18–36°C	9 kts NE, g 16	none	64%	22% interpolated
Fri	20 Nov 26	Very Poor	19–36°C	10 kts NE, g 19	none	64%	23% interpolated
Sat	21 Nov 26	Unacceptable	18–36°C	11 kts NE, g 19	none	62%	21% interpolated
Sun	22 Nov 26	Very Poor	20–20°C	7 kts N, g 16	none	2%

Today — Thu 12 Nov 26

Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: clear, winds up to 7 kts ENE, gusting 13 kts and temperatures 18–34°C. Flyable windows: 0001–0900L (Good, 10 h) and 1700–2300L (Marginal, 7 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0100–2300L.

Weather effects
	00–06L	06–12L	12–18L	18–24L
Wind	C	E	E	D
Visibility	A	A	A	A
Cloud / ceiling	A	A	B	A
Precipitation	A	A	A	A
Thunderstorm	D	D	D	D
Fog	·	·	·	·

A Excellent · B Good · C Fair · D Marginal (flyable) · E Poor · F Very Poor · G Unacceptable · (worst condition in each period)

Meteogram — hourly forecast; shaded = before first light / after last light. Gaps mean no data.

Ser	Hrs	Temp	Cloud	Wind	Gust	QNH	Assessment	Driver	Remarks
(a)	(b)	(c)	(d)	(e)	(f)	(g)	(h)	(i)	(j)
1.	0001	-	Clear (0%)	3 kts ENE	-	-	B - Good	wind 3 kt Good: wind 3 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — aviationweather Excellent: vis 10 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — aviationweather Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — aviationweather	⚠ low confidence
2.	0100	21 (spread 20–22)°C	Clear (3%)	5 (spread 3–7) kts NE	7 kts	1016	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Fair: gust 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 11.7 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — aviationweather, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 3% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — aviationweather, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
3.	0200	20 (spread 19–21)°C	Clear (5%)	4 (spread 3–6) kts NE	6 kts	1016	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 4 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 11.8 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — aviationweather, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 5% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — aviationweather, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
4.	0300	19 (spread 18–21)°C	Clear (9%)	4 (spread 3–6) kts NE	6 kts	1016	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 4 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 11.7 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — aviationweather, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 9% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
5.	0400	19 (spread 18–20)°C	Clear (11%)	4 (spread 3–6) kts NE	7 kts	1016	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Fair: gust 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 4 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 11.4 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — aviationweather, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 11% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
6.	0500	18 (spread 17–19)°C	Clear (12%)	4 (spread 3–5) kts NE	6 kts	1016	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 4 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 11.5 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — aviationweather, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 12% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
7.	0600	18 (spread 16–19)°C	Clear (9%)	4 (spread 3–6) kts NE	5 kts	1016	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 4 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 11.3 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — aviationweather, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 9% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: gust spread +0 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
8.	0700	19°C	Clear (12%)	4 (spread 3–6) kts ENE	5 kts	1017	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Good: gust 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 4 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 11.4 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — aviationweather, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 12% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: gust spread +0 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
9.	0800	22 (spread 21–23)°C	Clear (8%)	5 (spread 3–6) kts ENE	7 kts	1018	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 11.5 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — aviationweather, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 8% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
10.	0900	25 (spread 23–27)°C	Clear (4%)	7 (spread 5–8) kts ENE	11 kts	1018	D - Marginal	storm 6% · gust 11 kt Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust 11 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Fair: gust spread +5 kt [Fair: 3.3–5 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Fair: wind 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 3 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 11.3 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — aviationweather, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 4% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk, gusts
11.	1000	28 (spread 26–30)°C	Clear (1%)	7 (spread 5–8) kts ENE	13 kts	1019	E - Poor	gust 13 kt Poor: gust 13 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Marginal: gust spread +6 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Fair: wind 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon Excellent: vis 11.3 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — aviationweather, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 1% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear
12.	1100	30 (spread 28–32)°C	Clear (8%)	7 (spread 5–8) kts ENE	13 kts	1018	E - Poor	gust 13 kt Poor: gust 13 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust spread +6 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Fair: wind 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 13 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 11.6 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — aviationweather, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 8% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear
13.	1200	33°C	Mostly clear (20%)	6 (spread 4–7) kts NE	13 kts	1017	E - Poor	gust 13 kt · gust spread +7 kt Poor: gust 13 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo, wttrin Poor: gust spread +7 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Good: cloud 20% [Good: 17.1–34.3%] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 26 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 11.7 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — aviationweather, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
14.	1300	34°C	Mostly clear (27%)	6 (spread 4–7) kts NE	13 kts	1016	E - Poor	gust 13 kt · gust spread +7 kt Poor: gust 13 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo, wttrin Poor: gust spread +7 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Good: cloud 27% [Good: 17.1–34.3%] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 7 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon Excellent: vis 11.8 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — aviationweather, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
15.	1400	34°C	Clear (8%)	6 (spread 4–7) kts NNE	13 kts	1015	E - Poor	gust 13 kt · gust spread +7 kt Poor: gust 13 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, icon, ukmo, wttrin Poor: gust spread +7 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 42 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 12 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — aviationweather, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 8% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — aviationweather, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
16.	1500	34 (spread 33–34)°C	Mostly clear (13%)	7 (spread 6–8) kts NNE	12 kts	1014	E - Poor	gust 12 kt Poor: gust 12 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo, wttrin Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust spread +5 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Fair: wind 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 42 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 12.1 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — aviationweather, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 13% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear
17.	1600	33 (spread 32–34)°C	Mostly clear (15%)	7 (spread 6–8) kts NNE	12 kts	1014	E - Poor	gust 12 kt Poor: gust 12 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo, wttrin Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Marginal: gust spread +5 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Fair: wind 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 3 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon Excellent: vis 11.9 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — aviationweather, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 15% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear
18.	1700	31 (spread 30–32)°C	Clear (10%)	6 (spread 5–7) kts NNE	11 kts	1014	D - Marginal	storm 6% · gust 11 kt Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust 11 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo, wttrin Marginal: gust spread +5 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 12 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — aviationweather, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 10% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear
19.	1800	28 (spread 27–30)°C	Clear (8%)	6 (spread 5–7) kts NNE	9 kts	1015	D - Marginal	storm 6% · gust 9 kt Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust 9 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo, wttrin Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 12 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — aviationweather, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 8% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk, gusts
20.	1900	26 (spread 25–28)°C	Clear (4%)	6 (spread 5–8) kts NNE	8 kts	1015	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Fair: gust 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo, wttrin Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust spread +1 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 11.8 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — aviationweather, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 4% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
21.	2000	24 (spread 24–25)°C	Clear (2%)	6 (spread 5–7) kts NNE	7 kts	1016	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo, wttrin Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 12 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — aviationweather, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 2% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: gust spread +1 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
22.	2100	24 (spread 23–25)°C	Clear (2%)	6 (spread 5–7) kts NNE	7 kts	1016	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo, wttrin Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 11.9 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — aviationweather, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 2% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: gust spread +1 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
23.	2200	23 (spread 22–24)°C	Clear (9%)	6 (spread 5–7) kts NNE	8 kts	1017	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Fair: gust 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 11.8 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — aviationweather, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 9% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
24.	2300	22 (spread 21–24)°C	Clear (11%)	6 (spread 4–8) kts NNE	8 kts	1017	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 12.1 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — aviationweather, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 11% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk

Confidence: 73% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 16% of readings interpolated · first light 0541L · last light 1802L · Moon 9 % illuminated, rises 08:38, sets 20:11.

Tomorrow — Fri 13 Nov 26

Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: clear, winds up to 7 kts ENE and temperatures 16–33°C. Flyable windows: 0001–0900L (Marginal, 10 h) and 1300–2300L (Marginal, 11 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.

Weather effects
	00–06L	06–12L	12–18L	18–24L
Wind	C	E	E	C
Visibility	A	A	A	A
Cloud / ceiling	A	A	A	A
Precipitation	A	A	A	A
Thunderstorm	D	D	D	D
Fog	·	·	·	·

A Excellent · B Good · C Fair · D Marginal (flyable) · E Poor · F Very Poor · G Unacceptable · (worst condition in each period)

Meteogram — hourly forecast; shaded = before first light / after last light. Gaps mean no data.

Ser	Hrs	Temp	Cloud	Wind	Gust	QNH	Assessment	Driver	Remarks
(a)	(b)	(c)	(d)	(e)	(f)	(g)	(h)	(i)	(j)
1.	0001	20 (spread 19–22)°C	Clear (2%)	5 (spread 3–7) kts NNE	7 kts	1016	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — aviationweather, ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 12.4 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — aviationweather, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 2% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — aviationweather, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
2.	0100	20 (spread 19–21)°C	Clear (2%)	5 (spread 3–7) kts N	8 kts	1016	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Fair: gust 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: gust spread +3 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 14.1 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 2% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
3.	0200	19 (spread 18–20)°C	Clear (2%)	5 (spread 3–6) kts N	7 kts	1016	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 14.5 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 2% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
4.	0300	18 (spread 17–19)°C	Clear (3%)	4 (spread 4–5) kts NNE	6 kts	1016	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: gust spread +1 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 4 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 13.5 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 3% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
5.	0400	17 (spread 16–17)°C	Clear (3%)	5 (spread 4–5) kts NNE	6 kts	1016	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Fair: gust 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 12.3 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 3% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, wttrin Excellent: gust spread +2 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
6.	0500	16 (spread 16–17)°C	Clear (4%)	4 (spread 4–5) kts NE	5 kts	1016	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 4 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 12.7 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 4% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, wttrin Excellent: gust spread +1 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
7.	0600	16 (spread 15–18)°C	Clear (4%)	5 (spread 4–6) kts NE	5 kts	1016	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 12.7 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 4% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, wttrin Excellent: gust spread +0 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
8.	0700	18 (spread 17–19)°C	Clear (4%)	4 (spread 3–6) kts NE	5 kts	1017	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Good: gust 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 4 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 12.4 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 4% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, wttrin Excellent: gust spread +1 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
9.	0800	20 (spread 20–21)°C	Clear (10%)	4 (spread 3–5) kts ENE	7 kts	1018	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 4 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 12.9 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 10% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
10.	0900	24 (spread 22–25)°C	Mostly clear (15%)	6 (spread 5–6) kts ENE	10 kts	1018	D - Marginal	storm 6% · gust 10 kt Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust 10 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Fair: gust spread +4 kt [Fair: 3.3–5 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 3 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 12.6 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 15% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk, gusts
11.	1000	27 (spread 25–28)°C	Clear (12%)	6 (spread 4–8) kts ENE	12 kts	1019	E - Poor	gust 12 kt Poor: gust 12 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Marginal: gust spread +6 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon Excellent: vis 12.2 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 12% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear
12.	1100	29 (spread 27–31)°C	Clear (3%)	7 (spread 4–9) kts ENE	12 kts	1018	E - Poor	gust 12 kt Poor: gust 12 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust spread +6 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Fair: wind 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 16 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 13 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 3% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear
13.	1200	32 (spread 32–33)°C	Clear (5%)	5 (spread 2–6) kts ENE	12 kts	1017	E - Poor	gust 12 kt · gust spread +7 kt Poor: gust 12 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo, wttrin Poor: gust spread +7 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 26 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 13.5 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 5% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
14.	1300	33 (spread 33–34)°C	Clear (4%)	4 (spread 0–5) kts NE	10 kts	1016	D - Marginal	storm 6% · gust 10 kt Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Marginal: gust 10 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Marginal: gust spread +6 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 4 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 3 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon Excellent: vis 13.1 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 4% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear
15.	1400	33 (spread 33–34)°C	Clear (3%)	3 (spread 0–5) kts NE	8 kts	1015	D - Marginal	storm 6% · gust spread +5 kt Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust spread +5 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Fair: gust 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 3 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 29 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 14 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 3% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk, wind shear
16.	1500	33 (spread 33–34)°C	Clear (3%)	3 (spread 0–5) kts N	7 kts	1014	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Fair: gust spread +4 kt [Fair: 3.3–5 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 3 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 26 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 14.1 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 3% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
17.	1600	33 (spread 32–34)°C	Clear (0%)	3 (spread 0–5) kts N	7 kts	1014	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Fair: gust 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Fair: gust spread +4 kt [Fair: 3.3–5 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 3 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 12 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 13.5 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
18.	1700	31 (spread 31–32)°C	Clear (0%)	3 (spread 0–6) kts N	6 kts	1014	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: gust spread +3 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 3 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 14.3 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
19.	1800	28 (spread 27–29)°C	Clear (0%)	5 (spread 5–6) kts N	6 kts	1015	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 14.3 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: gust spread +0 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
20.	1900	26 (spread 25–27)°C	Clear (0%)	5 (spread 4–6) kts N	6 kts	1015	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Fair: gust 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 13.6 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: gust spread +0 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
21.	2000	24 (spread 23–25)°C	Clear (1%)	5 (spread 4–6) kts N	5 kts	1016	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 14.4 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 1% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: gust spread +0 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
22.	2100	23 (spread 22–24)°C	Clear (1%)	5 (spread 4–6) kts N	5 kts	1016	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 14.3 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 1% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: gust spread +0 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
23.	2200	22 (spread 21–23)°C	Clear (1%)	5 (spread 4–6) kts N	6 kts	1016	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Fair: gust 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 13.5 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 1% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: gust spread +1 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
24.	2300	21 (spread 20–22)°C	Clear (1%)	5 (spread 4–7) kts N	6 kts	1016	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 14 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 1% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: gust spread +1 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk

Confidence: 72% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 17% of readings interpolated · first light 0541L · last light 1802L · Moon 15 % illuminated, rises 09:29, sets 21:03.

Extended Outlook

Weather effects by day
	Sat	Sun	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun
Wind	E	E	E	E	F	G	G	G	F
Visibility	A	A	A	A	A	·	·	·	·
Cloud / ceiling	A	A	A	A	A	C	D	G	C
Precipitation	A	A	A	A	A	A	A	A	A
Thunderstorm	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D
Fog	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·
Overall	E	E	E	E	F	G	G	G	F

A Excellent · B Good · C Fair · D Marginal (flyable) · E Poor · F Very Poor · G Unacceptable · (worst condition in each period)

Sat 14 Nov 26

Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: clear, winds up to 7 kts NE, gusting 13 kts and temperatures 16–35°C. Flyable windows: 0001–1000L (Marginal, 11 h) and 1500–2300L (Marginal, 9 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.

Meteogram — hourly forecast; shaded = before first light / after last light. Gaps mean no data.

Ser	Hrs	Temp	Cloud	Wind	Gust	QNH	Assessment	Driver	Remarks
(a)	(b)	(c)	(d)	(e)	(f)	(g)	(h)	(i)	(j)
1.	0001	20 (spread 18–21)°C	Clear (0%)	5 (spread 3–6) kts N	6 kts	1016	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 13.8 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: gust spread +2 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
2.	0100	19 (spread 18–20)°C	Clear (0%)	5 (spread 3–6) kts NNW	7 kts	1016	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Fair: gust 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 12.9 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
3.	0200	18 (spread 17–20)°C	Clear (1%)	5 (spread 2–6) kts N	6 kts	1016	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 13.2 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 1% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: gust spread +2 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
4.	0300	17 (spread 16–19)°C	Clear (0%)	4 (spread 2–6) kts N	6 kts	1015	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 4 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 12.8 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
5.	0400	17 (spread 16–18)°C	Clear (0%)	4 (spread 2–5) kts N	7 kts	1016	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Fair: gust 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: gust spread +3 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 4 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 12 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
6.	0500	17 (spread 15–18)°C	Clear (0%)	4 (spread 1–5) kts N	6 kts	1016	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 4 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 12.2 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
7.	0600	16 (spread 15–18)°C	Clear (0%)	4 (spread 1–6) kts NNE	5 kts	1017	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 4 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 12 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: gust spread +1 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
8.	0700	17 (spread 16–18)°C	Clear (0%)	4 (spread 1–6) kts NNE	4 kts	1017	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Good: gust 4 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 4 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 11.4 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: gust spread +1 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
9.	0800	20 (spread 19–21)°C	Clear (0%)	4 (spread 1–6) kts NE	6 kts	1018	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 4 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 11.8 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
10.	0900	24 (spread 22–25)°C	Clear (0%)	5 (spread 4–6) kts NE	9 kts	1019	D - Marginal	storm 6% · gust 9 kt Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust 9 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Fair: gust spread +4 kt [Fair: 3.3–5 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 3 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 11.8 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk, gusts
11.	1000	28 (spread 27–28)°C	Clear (0%)	6 (spread 6–7) kts NE	11 kts	1019	D - Marginal	storm 6% · gust 11 kt Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Marginal: gust 11 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Marginal: gust spread +4 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon Excellent: vis 11.5 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear
12.	1100	30 (spread 29–31)°C	Clear (0%)	7 (spread 6–7) kts NE	12 kts	1018	E - Poor	gust 12 kt Poor: gust 12 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust spread +5 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: wind 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 9 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 12.2 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear
13.	1200	33 (spread 33–35)°C	Clear (0%)	5 (spread 3–7) kts NE	13 kts	1017	E - Poor	gust 13 kt · gust spread +7 kt Poor: gust 13 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo, wttrin Poor: gust spread +7 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 16 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 12.6 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
14.	1300	35 (spread 34–36)°C	Clear (0%)	5 (spread 2–7) kts NE	12 kts	1016	E - Poor	gust 12 kt · gust spread +7 kt Poor: gust 12 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo, wttrin Poor: gust spread +7 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 3 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon Excellent: vis 12.4 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
15.	1400	35 (spread 35–36)°C	Clear (0%)	4 (spread 1–6) kts NE	11 kts	1015	E - Poor	gust spread +6 kt Poor: gust spread +6 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust 11 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 4 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 22 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 13.2 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts
16.	1500	35°C	Clear (0%)	4 (spread 3–6) kts NNE	9 kts	1014	D - Marginal	storm 6% · gust 9 kt Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust 9 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo, wttrin Marginal: gust spread +5 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 4 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 16 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 13.4 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear
17.	1600	34 (spread 33–35)°C	Clear (0%)	5 (spread 4–6) kts NNE	8 kts	1014	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Fair: gust 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, wttrin Good: gust spread +3 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 10 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 12.9 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
18.	1700	33 (spread 32–34)°C	Clear (0%)	5 (spread 2–6) kts NNE	8 kts	1014	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: gust spread +4 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 6 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 13.7 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
19.	1800	29 (spread 27–31)°C	Clear (0%)	6 (spread 5–7) kts NNE	8 kts	1015	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 3 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 13.8 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
20.	1900	27 (spread 26–28)°C	Clear (0%)	6 (spread 5–7) kts N	8 kts	1015	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Fair: gust 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 13.1 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
21.	2000	25 (spread 25–26)°C	Clear (0%)	6 (spread 5–6) kts N	7 kts	1015	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 13.9 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, wttrin Excellent: gust spread +2 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
22.	2100	24 (spread 23–25)°C	Clear (0%)	5 (spread 5–6) kts N	7 kts	1015	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: gust spread +1 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 13.9 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
23.	2200	23 (spread 23–24)°C	Clear (0%)	5 kts N	6 kts	1015	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, wttrin Fair: gust 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 13.2 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo, wttrin Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, wttrin Excellent: gust spread +1 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, wttrin	thunderstorm risk
24.	2300	22 (spread 22–24)°C	Clear (0%)	5 (spread 4–5) kts N	5 kts	1015	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 15 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma Excellent: gust spread +1 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk

Confidence: 73% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 17% of readings interpolated · first light 0542L · last light 1801L · Moon 23 % illuminated, rises 10:17, sets 21:54.

Sun 15 Nov 26

Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: clear, winds up to 7 kts ENE, gusting 14 kts and temperatures 17–37°C. Flyable windows: 0001–1000L (Marginal, 11 h) and 1700–2300L (Marginal, 7 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.

Meteogram — hourly forecast; shaded = before first light / after last light. Gaps mean no data.

Ser	Hrs	Temp	Cloud	Wind	Gust	QNH	Assessment	Driver	Remarks
(a)	(b)	(c)	(d)	(e)	(f)	(g)	(h)	(i)	(j)
1.	0001	21 (spread 20–22)°C	Clear (0%)	4 (spread 3–6) kts N	5 kts	1014	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Good: wind 4 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 15 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma Excellent: gust spread +1 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
2.	0100	20 (spread 19–21)°C	Clear (0%)	4 (spread 3–6) kts NNW	6 kts	1014	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, icon, ukmo Good: gust spread +1 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: wind 4 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 15 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
3.	0200	19 (spread 19–20)°C	Clear (0%)	4 (spread 4–5) kts NNW	6 kts	1014	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, icon, ukmo Good: gust spread +1 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Good: wind 4 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 15 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
4.	0300	19 (spread 18–19)°C	Clear (0%)	4 kts N	5 kts	1014	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo Good: wind 4 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 15 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: gust spread +0 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo, gem Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
5.	0400	18 (spread 17–19)°C	Clear (0%)	4 (spread 4–5) kts N	5 kts	1014	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo Good: wind 4 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 15 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: gust spread +1 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, gem Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
6.	0500	17 (spread 17–18)°C	Clear (0%)	4 kts N	5 kts	1015	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Good: wind 4 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 14.8 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: gust spread +1 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
7.	0600	17 (spread 16–19)°C	Clear (0%)	4 (spread 2–5) kts NNE	5 kts	1015	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Good: wind 4 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 14.6 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: gust spread +1 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
8.	0700	19 (spread 19–20)°C	Clear (0%)	4 (spread 2–5) kts NNE	5 kts	1016	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Good: wind 4 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 14.3 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: gust spread +1 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
9.	0800	21 (spread 21–23)°C	Clear (0%)	5 (spread 5–6) kts NE	7 kts	1016	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, gem Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 14 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
10.	0900	26 (spread 25–26)°C	Clear (0%)	6 kts NE	9 kts	1017	D - Marginal	storm 6% · gust 9 kt Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust 9 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gem, ukmo Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust spread +3 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 3 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 13.7 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts
11.	1000	29°C	Clear (0%)	7 kts ENE	11 kts	1017	D - Marginal	storm 6% · gust 11 kt Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust 11 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Fair: gust spread +4 kt [Fair: 3.3–5 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: wind 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon Excellent: vis 13.3 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts
12.	1100	31 (spread 31–32)°C	Clear (0%)	7 (spread 7–8) kts ENE	12 kts	1016	E - Poor	gust 12 kt Poor: gust 12 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust spread +4 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: wind 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 13 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 13.8 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear
13.	1200	35 (spread 34–36)°C	Clear (0%)	7 (spread 5–8) kts ENE	14 kts	1015	E - Poor	gust 14 kt · gust spread +7 kt Poor: gust 14 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo Poor: gust spread +7 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: wind 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 26 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 14.2 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
14.	1300	36 (spread 36–37)°C	Clear (0%)	7 (spread 5–8) kts NE	14 kts	1014	E - Poor	gust 14 kt · gust spread +7 kt Poor: gust 14 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo Poor: gust spread +7 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: wind 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 3 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon Excellent: vis 14.7 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
15.	1400	37 (spread 36–38)°C	Clear (0%)	7 (spread 5–8) kts NE	14 kts	1013	E - Poor	gust 14 kt · gust spread +7 kt Poor: gust 14 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo Poor: gust spread +7 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: wind 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 26 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 14.8 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
16.	1500	37 (spread 36–38)°C	Clear (0%)	7 (spread 6–8) kts NE	13 kts	1013	E - Poor	gust 13 kt Poor: gust 13 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust spread +6 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: wind 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 19 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 15 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear
17.	1600	36 (spread 35–37)°C	Clear (0%)	7 (spread 6–8) kts NE	12 kts	1012	E - Poor	gust 12 kt Poor: gust 12 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust spread +5 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: wind 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 10 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 15.2 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear
18.	1700	34 (spread 33–35)°C	Clear (0%)	6 (spread 6–7) kts NNE	11 kts	1013	D - Marginal	storm 6% · gust 11 kt Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust 11 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Marginal: gust spread +5 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo, gfs Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 10 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 15.1 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear
19.	1800	31 (spread 29–32)°C	Clear (0%)	7 (spread 6–8) kts NNE	9 kts	1014	D - Marginal	storm 6% · gust 9 kt Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust 9 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo Fair: wind 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 3 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 15.1 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts
20.	1900	28 (spread 27–29)°C	Clear (0%)	6 (spread 5–7) kts NNE	9 kts	1014	D - Marginal	storm 6% · gust 9 kt Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust 9 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust spread +3 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 15 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts
21.	2000	27 (spread 26–27)°C	Clear (0%)	6 (spread 5–7) kts NNE	8 kts	1014	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 15 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
22.	2100	26 (spread 25–26)°C	Clear (0%)	6 (spread 5–7) kts NNE	8 kts	1014	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 15 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
23.	2200	25 (spread 24–26)°C	Clear (0%)	5 (spread 5–6) kts NNE	8 kts	1014	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Good: gust spread +3 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 15 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
24.	2300	24 (spread 23–25)°C	Clear (0%)	5 (spread 5–6) kts NNE	7 kts	1014	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 14.9 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk

Confidence: 72% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 6% of readings interpolated · first light 0542L · last light 1801L · Moon 31 % illuminated, rises 11:01, sets 22:45.

Mon 16 Nov 26

Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: clear, winds up to 8 kts NE, gusting 14 kts and temperatures 18–37°C. Flyable windows: 0001–0900L (Marginal, 10 h) and 1700–2300L (Marginal, 7 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.

Meteogram — hourly forecast; shaded = before first light / after last light. Gaps mean no data.

Ser	Hrs	Temp	Cloud	Wind	Gust	QNH	Assessment	Driver	Remarks
(a)	(b)	(c)	(d)	(e)	(f)	(g)	(h)	(i)	(j)
1.	0001	22°C	Clear (0%)	5 (spread 4–7) kts NNE	8 kts	1013	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 14.8 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
2.	0100	21 (spread 21–22)°C	Clear (0%)	5 (spread 4–6) kts NNE	8 kts	1013	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Good: gust spread +3 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 14.8 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
3.	0200	21 (spread 20–22)°C	Clear (0%)	5 (spread 4–6) kts NNE	7 kts	1013	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 14.4 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
4.	0300	20 (spread 20–21)°C	Clear (0%)	5 (spread 5–6) kts NNE	7 kts	1013	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo, gem Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 14 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
5.	0400	19 (spread 19–20)°C	Clear (0%)	5 kts NNE	7 kts	1013	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo, gem Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 13.6 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
6.	0500	19 (spread 18–20)°C	Clear (0%)	5 (spread 4–5) kts NNE	5 kts	1013	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 13.6 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: gust spread +0 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, gem Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
7.	0600	18 (spread 18–20)°C	Clear (0%)	4 (spread 3–6) kts NE	4 kts	1014	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust 4 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Good: wind 4 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 13.6 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: gust spread +0 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
8.	0700	19 (spread 18–20)°C	Clear (0%)	4 (spread 2–6) kts NE	6 kts	1014	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: wind 4 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 13.6 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
9.	0800	22 (spread 22–23)°C	Clear (0%)	6 (spread 5–7) kts NE	8 kts	1015	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, gem Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 13.7 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
10.	0900	26 (spread 25–27)°C	Clear (0%)	7 (spread 6–8) kts NE	10 kts	1015	D - Marginal	storm 6% · gust 10 kt Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust 10 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo Fair: wind 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust spread +3 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 3 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 13.8 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts
11.	1000	29 (spread 28–29)°C	Clear (0%)	8 (spread 7–8) kts NE	13 kts	1016	E - Poor	gust 13 kt Poor: gust 13 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust spread +5 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: wind 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon Excellent: vis 13.8 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear
12.	1100	31 (spread 31–32)°C	Clear (0%)	8 (spread 7–9) kts NE	14 kts	1015	E - Poor	gust 14 kt Poor: gust 14 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust spread +5 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: wind 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 9 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 14.4 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear
13.	1200	35 (spread 34–36)°C	Clear (0%)	7 (spread 7–8) kts NE	14 kts	1013	E - Poor	gust 14 kt · gust spread +7 kt Poor: gust 14 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo Poor: gust spread +7 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: wind 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 19 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 15 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
14.	1300	36 (spread 36–37)°C	Clear (0%)	7 (spread 7–8) kts NE	14 kts	1012	E - Poor	gust 14 kt · gust spread +7 kt Poor: gust 14 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo Poor: gust spread +7 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: wind 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 3 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon Excellent: vis 15.5 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
15.	1400	37 (spread 36–37)°C	Clear (0%)	7 (spread 7–8) kts NE	14 kts	1012	E - Poor	gust 14 kt · gust spread +6 kt Poor: gust 14 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo Poor: gust spread +6 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: wind 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 22 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 16.1 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
16.	1500	37 (spread 36–37)°C	Clear (0%)	8 (spread 7–8) kts NNE	13 kts	1011	E - Poor	gust 13 kt Poor: gust 13 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust spread +6 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: wind 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 16 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 16.6 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear
17.	1600	36 (spread 35–37)°C	Clear (0%)	8 (spread 7–9) kts NNE	13 kts	1011	E - Poor	gust 13 kt Poor: gust 13 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust spread +5 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: wind 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 10 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 17.1 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear
18.	1700	34 (spread 33–35)°C	Clear (0%)	7 (spread 6–8) kts NNE	11 kts	1011	D - Marginal	storm 6% · gust 11 kt Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust 11 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Fair: gust spread +4 kt [Fair: 3.3–5 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: wind 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 10 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 17 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts
19.	1800	30 (spread 29–32)°C	Clear (0%)	7 kts NNE	10 kts	1012	D - Marginal	storm 6% · gust 10 kt Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust 10 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Fair: wind 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust spread +3 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, ecmwf Excellent: CAPE 3 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 16.8 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts
20.	1900	28 (spread 28–29)°C	Clear (0%)	6 (spread 6–7) kts NNE	9 kts	1012	D - Marginal	storm 6% · gust 9 kt Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust 9 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust spread +3 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, ecmwf Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 16.6 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts
21.	2000	27 (spread 26–27)°C	Clear (0%)	6 (spread 5–6) kts NNE	8 kts	1013	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — gem, gfs, icon, ukmo, ecmwf Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 16.5 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
22.	2100	25 (spread 25–26)°C	Clear (0%)	5 (spread 5–6) kts N	7 kts	1013	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 16.4 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
23.	2200	24 (spread 23–25)°C	Clear (0%)	6 (spread 5–6) kts N	8 kts	1013	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 16.3 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
24.	2300	23 (spread 22–24)°C	Clear (0%)	6 kts N	7 kts	1013	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 15.8 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: gust spread +2 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo, gem Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk

Confidence: 74% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 7% of readings interpolated · first light 0542L · last light 1801L · Moon 40 % illuminated, rises 11:43, sets 23:33.

Tue 17 Nov 26

Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: clear, winds up to 8 kts NE, gusting 14 kts and temperatures 18–36°C. Flyable windows: 0001–0900L (Marginal, 10 h) and 1700–2300L (Marginal, 7 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.

Meteogram — hourly forecast; shaded = before first light / after last light. Gaps mean no data.

Ser	Hrs	Temp	Cloud	Wind	Gust	QNH	Assessment	Driver	Remarks
(a)	(b)	(c)	(d)	(e)	(f)	(g)	(h)	(i)	(j)
1.	0001	22 (spread 21–23)°C	Clear (0%)	6 (spread 4–7) kts N	6 kts	1013	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 15.3 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: gust spread +1 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
2.	0100	21°C	Clear (0%)	6 (spread 4–7) kts N	7 kts	1012	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 14.8 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: gust spread +1 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
3.	0200	20 (spread 20–21)°C	Clear (0%)	5 (spread 4–7) kts NNE	7 kts	1012	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, icon, ukmo Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 14.2 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
4.	0300	19 (spread 19–20)°C	Clear (0%)	6 (spread 5–7) kts NNE	7 kts	1012	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, icon, ukmo Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 13.5 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: gust spread +1 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
5.	0400	19 (spread 18–19)°C	Clear (0%)	5 (spread 5–6) kts NNE	7 kts	1012	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, icon, ukmo Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 12.9 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
6.	0500	18 (spread 18–19)°C	Clear (0%)	5 (spread 4–5) kts NNE	5 kts	1013	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 12.7 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: gust spread +0 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, gem Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
7.	0600	18 (spread 17–19)°C	Clear (0%)	4 (spread 3–7) kts NNE	5 kts	1013	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Good: wind 4 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 12.6 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: gust spread +1 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
8.	0700	19 (spread 18–20)°C	Clear (0%)	5 (spread 3–7) kts NNE	6 kts	1014	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 12.5 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: gust spread +2 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
9.	0800	22 (spread 21–22)°C	Clear (0%)	6 (spread 5–7) kts NE	8 kts	1014	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, gem Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 12.7 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
10.	0900	26°C	Clear (0%)	7 (spread 7–8) kts NE	11 kts	1014	D - Marginal	storm 6% · gust 11 kt Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust 11 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — gem, icon, ukmo Fair: gust spread +4 kt [Fair: 3.3–5 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: wind 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 3 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 12.9 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts
11.	1000	29 (spread 29–30)°C	Clear (0%)	8 (spread 7–10) kts NE	14 kts	1014	E - Poor	gust 14 kt Poor: gust 14 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — gfs, icon, ukmo Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust spread +6 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: wind 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon Excellent: vis 13.1 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear
12.	1100	31 (spread 30–33)°C	Clear (0%)	8 (spread 7–10) kts NE	14 kts	1013	E - Poor	gust 14 kt Poor: gust 14 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust spread +5 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: wind 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 16 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 13.6 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear
13.	1200	34 (spread 34–35)°C	Clear (0%)	8 (spread 6–9) kts NE	14 kts	1012	E - Poor	gust 14 kt Poor: gust 14 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust spread +7 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: wind 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 26 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 14 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear
14.	1300	36 (spread 35–36)°C	Clear (0%)	7 (spread 6–9) kts NE	14 kts	1012	E - Poor	gust 14 kt · gust spread +7 kt Poor: gust 14 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo Poor: gust spread +7 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: wind 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 3 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon Excellent: vis 14.5 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
15.	1400	36 (spread 35–37)°C	Clear (0%)	7 (spread 6–9) kts NNE	14 kts	1011	E - Poor	gust 14 kt · gust spread +6 kt Poor: gust 14 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo Poor: gust spread +6 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: wind 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 26 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 14.8 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
16.	1500	36 (spread 35–37)°C	Clear (0%)	7 (spread 6–9) kts NNE	13 kts	1011	E - Poor	gust 13 kt Poor: gust 13 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust spread +6 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: wind 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 19 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 15 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear
17.	1600	35 (spread 33–36)°C	Clear (0%)	7 (spread 6–8) kts NNE	13 kts	1011	E - Poor	gust 13 kt Poor: gust 13 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust spread +6 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: wind 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 12 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 15.3 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear
18.	1700	32 (spread 31–34)°C	Clear (0%)	6 (spread 5–8) kts NNE	11 kts	1011	D - Marginal	storm 6% · gust 11 kt Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust 11 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — gfs, icon, ukmo Marginal: gust spread +5 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 10 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 15.5 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear
19.	1800	30 (spread 28–31)°C	Clear (0%)	7 kts NNE	9 kts	1011	D - Marginal	storm 6% · gust 9 kt Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust 9 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Fair: wind 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust spread +3 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, ecmwf Excellent: CAPE 3 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 15.8 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts
20.	1900	28 (spread 26–28)°C	Clear (0%)	6 (spread 5–7) kts N	9 kts	1012	D - Marginal	storm 6% · gust 9 kt Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust 9 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust spread +3 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 16 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts
21.	2000	26 (spread 25–27)°C	Clear (0%)	6 (spread 5–7) kts N	9 kts	1012	D - Marginal	storm 6% · gust 9 kt Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust 9 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust spread +4 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 15.9 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts
22.	2100	25 (spread 24–26)°C	Clear (0%)	6 (spread 5–7) kts N	9 kts	1012	D - Marginal	storm 6% · gust 9 kt Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust 9 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust spread +4 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 15.7 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts
23.	2200	24 (spread 23–25)°C	Clear (0%)	6 (spread 5–8) kts N	8 kts	1012	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 15.5 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
24.	2300	23 (spread 22–24)°C	Clear (0%)	6 (spread 5–8) kts N	8 kts	1013	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 15.3 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk

Confidence: 76% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 8% of readings interpolated · first light 0543L · last light 1801L · Moon 50 % illuminated, rises 12:22.

Wed 18 Nov 26

Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: clear, winds up to 8 kts NNE, gusting 15 kts and temperatures 18–36°C. Flyable windows: 0001–0900L (Marginal, 10 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.

Meteogram — hourly forecast; shaded = before first light / after last light. Gaps mean no data.

Ser	Hrs	Temp	Cloud	Wind	Gust	QNH	Assessment	Driver	Remarks
(a)	(b)	(c)	(d)	(e)	(f)	(g)	(h)	(i)	(j)
1.	0001	21 (spread 21–22)°C	Clear (0%)	6 (spread 4–7) kts N	8 kts	1011	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 15.1 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
2.	0100	21 (spread 20–21)°C	Clear (0%)	6 (spread 4–7) kts N	7 kts	1012	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 14.9 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: gust spread +1 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
3.	0200	20 (spread 19–21)°C	Clear (0%)	6 (spread 5–7) kts N	6 kts	1011	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 14.4 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: gust spread +0 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, gem Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
4.	0300	19 (spread 19–20)°C	Clear (0%)	6 (spread 5–6) kts N	6 kts	1012	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 13.9 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: gust spread +1 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, gem Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
5.	0400	19 (spread 18–19)°C	Clear (0%)	5 (spread 5–6) kts N	7 kts	1012	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, gem Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 13.5 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
6.	0500	18 (spread 17–19)°C	Clear (0%)	5 (spread 4–5) kts N	6 kts	1013	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 13 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: gust spread +1 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, gem Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
7.	0600	18°C	Clear (0%)	5 (spread 4–6) kts NNE	7 kts	1013	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 12.5 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
8.	0700	19 (spread 18–19)°C	Clear (0%)	5 (spread 4–6) kts NNE	8 kts	1013	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Good: gust spread +3 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 12 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
9.	0800	21 (spread 20–22)°C	Clear (0%)	5 (spread 5–6) kts NNE	7 kts	1014	D - Marginal	storm 6% Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: gust 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo, gem Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 3 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 12.3 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk
10.	0900	25 (spread 23–26)°C	Clear (0%)	6 (spread 5–8) kts NNE	10 kts	1014	D - Marginal	storm 6% · gust 10 kt Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust 10 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Fair: gust spread +4 kt [Fair: 3.3–5 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 6 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 12.7 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts
11.	1000	28 (spread 26–30)°C	Clear (0%)	7 (spread 7–8) kts NE	12 kts	1014	E - Poor	gust 12 kt Poor: gust 12 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust spread +5 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: wind 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon Excellent: vis 13 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear
12.	1100	31 (spread 29–33)°C	Clear (0%)	8 kts NE	14 kts	1014	E - Poor	gust 14 kt Poor: gust 14 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: gust spread +6 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo, gfs Fair: wind 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 19 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 13.3 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear
13.	1200	34°C	Clear (0%)	8 (spread 7–9) kts NE	15 kts	1013	F - Very Poor	gust 15 kt Very Poor: gust 15 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo Poor: gust spread +7 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: wind 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 26 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon, ukmo Excellent: vis 13.7 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
14.	1300	35 (spread 35–36)°C	Clear (0%)	8 (spread 7–9) kts NE	15 kts	1012	F - Very Poor	gust 15 kt Very Poor: gust 15 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, ukmo Poor: gust spread +7 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Fair: wind 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma, ukmo Excellent: CAPE 3 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon Excellent: vis 14 km [Excellent: ≥ 8000 m] — ukmo Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, jma, ukmo Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
15.	1400	36 (spread 35–37)°C	Clear (1%)	8 (spread 8–9) kts NNE	15 kts	1012	F - Very Poor	gust 15 kt · visibility not forecast Very Poor: gust 15 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon Poor: gust spread +6 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma Fair: wind 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma Excellent: CAPE 5 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon Excellent: cloud 1% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, jma Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo visibility not forecast	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
16.	1500	36 (spread 34–37)°C	Clear (2%)	8 (spread 7–9) kts NNE	14 kts	1011	E - Poor	gust 14 kt · visibility not forecast Poor: gust 14 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma Marginal: gust spread +6 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma Fair: wind 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma Excellent: CAPE 5 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon Excellent: cloud 2% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, jma Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo visibility not forecast	gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear
17.	1600	35 (spread 33–36)°C	Clear (2%)	8 (spread 7–8) kts NNE	14 kts	1011	E - Poor	gust 14 kt · visibility not forecast Poor: gust 14 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma Marginal: gust spread +6 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — gem, gfs, icon, jma, ecmwf Fair: wind 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — gem, gfs, icon, jma Excellent: CAPE 3 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon Excellent: cloud 2% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, jma Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo visibility not forecast	gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear
18.	1700	32 (spread 31–34)°C	Clear (2%)	6 (spread 6–7) kts NNE	12 kts	1011	E - Poor	gust 12 kt · visibility not forecast Poor: gust 12 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma Marginal: gust spread +5 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma Excellent: CAPE 5 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon Excellent: cloud 2% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, jma Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo visibility not forecast	gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear
19.	1800	29 (spread 27–31)°C	Clear (1%)	6 (spread 6–7) kts NNE	10 kts	1012	· - No data	storm 6% · gust 10 kt · visibility not forecast Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma Marginal: gust 10 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon Fair: gust spread +3 kt [Fair: 3.3–5 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon Excellent: cloud 1% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, jma Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo visibility not forecast	thunderstorm risk, gusts
20.	1900	27 (spread 25–29)°C	Clear (5%)	6 kts NNE	9 kts	1012	· - No data	storm 6% · gust 9 kt · visibility not forecast Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma Marginal: gust 9 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma Good: gust spread +4 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon Excellent: cloud 5% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo visibility not forecast	thunderstorm risk, gusts
21.	2000	26 (spread 25–27)°C	Clear (3%)	5 (spread 5–6) kts NNE	10 kts	1012	· - No data	storm 6% · gust 10 kt · visibility not forecast Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma Marginal: gust 10 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gfs, icon Marginal: gust spread +4 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma, gfs Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon Excellent: cloud 3% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo visibility not forecast	thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear
22.	2100	25 (spread 24–25)°C	Clear (2%)	5 (spread 4–6) kts N	7 kts	1013	· - No data	storm 6% · visibility not forecast Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma Fair: gust 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon Excellent: cloud 2% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo visibility not forecast	thunderstorm risk
23.	2200	24°C	Clear (0%)	6 (spread 5–7) kts N	8 kts	1013	· - No data	storm 6% · visibility not forecast Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma Fair: gust 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs, icon Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo visibility not forecast	thunderstorm risk
24.	2300	23°C	Clear (0%)	6 (spread 5–7) kts N	7 kts	1013	· - No data	storm 6% · visibility not forecast Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma Fair: gust 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma Excellent: gust spread +1 kt [Excellent: < 1.7 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo visibility not forecast	thunderstorm risk

Confidence: 75% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 9% of readings interpolated · first light 0543L · last light 1801L · Moon 60 % illuminated, rises 12:59, sets 00:21.

Thu 19 Nov 26

Conditions are expected to be generally Poor: clear, winds up to 9 kts NE, gusting 16 kts and temperatures 18–36°C. No flyable windows (Marginal or better, ≥2 consecutive hrs) are forecast. Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall a deterioration from the previous day.

Meteogram — hourly forecast; shaded = before first light / after last light. Gaps mean no data.

Ser	Hrs	Temp	Cloud	Wind	Gust	QNH	Assessment	Driver	Remarks
(a)	(b)	(c)	(d)	(e)	(f)	(g)	(h)	(i)	(j)
1.	0001	22 (spread 21–22)°C	Clear (0%)	5 (spread 3–6) kts N	7 kts	1013	· - No data	storm 6% · visibility not forecast Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gem, gfs, icon, jma Fair: gust 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon Good: gust spread +2 kt [Good: 1.7–3.3 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, jma Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs, icon Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gem, icon, jma Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gem, gfs, icon, ukmo visibility not forecast	thunderstorm risk
2.	0100	21°C	Clear (0%)	6 kts N	10 kts	1012	· - No data	storm 6% · gust 10 kt · visibility not forecast Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: gust 10 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Fair: gust spread +5 kt [Fair: 3.3–5 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	thunderstorm risk, gusts
3.	0200	20°C	Clear (0%)	6 kts N	11 kts	1012	· - No data	storm 6% · gust 11 kt · visibility not forecast Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Marginal: gust 11 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: gust spread +6 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear
4.	0300	19°C	Clear (3%)	5 kts NNE	12 kts	1012	E - Poor	gust 12 kt · gust spread +7 kt · visibility not forecast Poor: gust 12 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Poor: gust spread +7 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: cloud 3% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
5.	0400	19°C	Clear (7%)	5 kts NNE	11 kts	1013	· - No data	storm 6% · gust 11 kt · visibility not forecast Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: gust 11 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: gust spread +6 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: cloud 7% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear
6.	0500	18°C	Mostly clear (21%)	5 kts NNE	13 kts	1013	E - Poor	gust 13 kt · gust spread +8 kt · visibility not forecast Poor: gust 13 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Poor: gust spread +8 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Good: cloud 21% [Good: 17.1–34.3%] — ecmwf, gfs Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
7.	0600	18°C	Partly cloudy (35%)	5 kts NNE	13 kts	1013	E - Poor	gust 13 kt · gust spread +8 kt · visibility not forecast Poor: gust 13 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Poor: gust spread +8 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Fair: cloud 35% [Fair: 34.3–42.9%] — ecmwf, gfs Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
8.	0700	20°C	Mostly clear (30%)	5 kts NNE	12 kts	1014	E - Poor	gust 12 kt · gust spread +6 kt · visibility not forecast Poor: gust 12 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Poor: gust spread +6 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gfs Good: cloud 30% [Good: 17.1–34.3%] — ecmwf, gfs Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
9.	0800	22°C	Partly cloudy (35%)	6 kts NE	13 kts	1014	E - Poor	gust 13 kt · gust spread +8 kt · visibility not forecast Poor: gust 13 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Poor: gust spread +8 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Fair: cloud 35% [Fair: 34.3–42.9%] — ecmwf, gfs Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
10.	0900	25°C	Mostly clear (22%)	8 kts NE	13 kts	1014	E - Poor	gust 13 kt · visibility not forecast Poor: gust 13 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Marginal: gust spread +6 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Fair: wind 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Good: cloud 22% [Good: 17.1–34.3%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear
11.	1000	28°C	Clear (8%)	8 kts NE	13 kts	1014	E - Poor	gust 13 kt · visibility not forecast Poor: gust 13 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: gust spread +4 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Fair: wind 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: cloud 8% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear
12.	1100	31°C	Clear (6%)	9 kts NE	13 kts	1014	E - Poor	gust 13 kt · visibility not forecast Poor: gust 13 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Marginal: wind 9 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Fair: gust spread +4 kt [Fair: 3.3–5 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: cloud 6% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind
13.	1200	35°C	Clear (3%)	8 kts NE	13 kts	1013	E - Poor	gust 13 kt · visibility not forecast Poor: gust 13 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Marginal: gust spread +5 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Fair: wind 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: cloud 3% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear
14.	1300	36°C	Clear (0%)	8 kts NE	15 kts	1013	F - Very Poor	gust 15 kt · visibility not forecast Very Poor: gust 15 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — ecmwf Poor: gust spread +7 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gfs Fair: wind 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
15.	1400	36°C	Clear (0%)	8 kts NE	15 kts	1012	F - Very Poor	gust 15 kt · visibility not forecast Very Poor: gust 15 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — ecmwf Poor: gust spread +7 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Fair: wind 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
16.	1500	35°C	Clear (0%)	8 kts NNE	16 kts	1012	F - Very Poor	gust 16 kt · visibility not forecast Very Poor: gust 16 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — ecmwf Poor: gust spread +7 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Fair: wind 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
17.	1600	34°C	Clear (0%)	8 kts NNE	16 kts	1012	F - Very Poor	gust 16 kt · visibility not forecast Very Poor: gust 16 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — ecmwf Poor: gust spread +8 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gfs Fair: wind 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
18.	1700	32°C	Clear (1%)	7 kts NNE	15 kts	1012	F - Very Poor	gust 15 kt · visibility not forecast Very Poor: gust 15 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Poor: gust spread +7 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Fair: wind 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: cloud 1% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
19.	1800	29°C	Clear (2%)	6 kts NNE	15 kts	1013	F - Very Poor	gust 15 kt · gust spread +9 kt · visibility not forecast Very Poor: gust 15 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Very Poor: gust spread +9 kt [Very Poor: 8.3–10 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: cloud 2% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
20.	1900	27°C	Clear (2%)	5 kts NNE	16 kts	1013	G - Unacceptable	gust spread +10 kt · visibility not forecast Unacceptable: gust spread +10 kt [Unacceptable: ≥ 10 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Very Poor: gust 16 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gfs Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: cloud 2% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk
21.	2000	26°C	Clear (5%)	5 kts NNE	15 kts	1013	G - Unacceptable	gust spread +10 kt · visibility not forecast Unacceptable: gust spread +10 kt [Unacceptable: ≥ 10 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Very Poor: gust 15 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: cloud 5% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk
22.	2100	25°C	Clear (8%)	5 kts N	13 kts	1014	E - Poor	gust 13 kt · gust spread +8 kt · visibility not forecast Poor: gust 13 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Poor: gust spread +8 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: cloud 8% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
23.	2200	25°C	Clear (7%)	5 kts N	12 kts	1014	E - Poor	gust 12 kt · gust spread +7 kt · visibility not forecast Poor: gust 12 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Poor: gust spread +7 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gfs Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: cloud 7% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
24.	2300	24°C	Clear (8%)	6 kts N	12 kts	1014	E - Poor	gust 12 kt · visibility not forecast Poor: gust 12 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Marginal: gust spread +6 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: cloud 8% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear

Confidence: 64% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 22% of readings interpolated · first light 0544L · last light 1801L · Moon 69 % illuminated, rises 13:37, sets 01:09.

Fri 20 Nov 26

Conditions are expected to be generally Very Poor: mostly clear, winds up to 10 kts NE, gusting 19 kts and temperatures 19–36°C. No flyable windows (Marginal or better, ≥2 consecutive hrs) are forecast. Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall a deterioration from the previous day.

Meteogram — hourly forecast; shaded = before first light / after last light. Gaps mean no data.

Ser	Hrs	Temp	Cloud	Wind	Gust	QNH	Assessment	Driver	Remarks
(a)	(b)	(c)	(d)	(e)	(f)	(g)	(h)	(i)	(j)
1.	0001	21°C	Clear (5%)	6 kts N	12 kts	1013	E - Poor	gust 12 kt · visibility not forecast Poor: gust 12 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Marginal: gust spread +6 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: cloud 5% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear
2.	0100	21°C	Clear (6%)	6 kts NNE	10 kts	1013	· - No data	storm 6% · gust 10 kt · visibility not forecast Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: gust 10 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Fair: gust spread +5 kt [Fair: 3.3–5 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: cloud 6% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	thunderstorm risk, gusts
3.	0200	20°C	Mostly clear (21%)	6 kts NNE	12 kts	1013	E - Poor	gust 12 kt · visibility not forecast Poor: gust 12 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Marginal: gust spread +6 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Good: cloud 21% [Good: 17.1–34.3%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear
4.	0300	20°C	Partly cloudy (39%)	5 kts NNE	12 kts	1013	E - Poor	gust 12 kt · gust spread +6 kt · visibility not forecast Poor: gust 12 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Poor: gust spread +6 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Fair: cloud 39% [Fair: 34.3–42.9%] — ecmwf, gfs Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
5.	0400	20°C	Partly cloudy (37%)	5 kts NNE	11 kts	1013	· - No data	storm 6% · gust 11 kt · visibility not forecast Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: gust 11 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: gust spread +6 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Fair: cloud 37% [Fair: 34.3–42.9%] — ecmwf, gfs Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear
6.	0500	19°C	Partly cloudy (47%)	5 kts NNE	13 kts	1013	E - Poor	gust 13 kt · gust spread +8 kt · visibility not forecast Poor: gust 13 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Poor: gust spread +8 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Marginal: cloud 47% [Marginal: 42.9–51.4%] — ecmwf, gfs Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk
7.	0600	19°C	Partly cloudy (39%)	5 kts NE	14 kts	1014	F - Very Poor	gust spread +9 kt · visibility not forecast Very Poor: gust spread +9 kt [Very Poor: 8.3–10 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Poor: gust 14 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Fair: cloud 39% [Fair: 34.3–42.9%] — ecmwf, gfs Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk
8.	0700	20°C	Mostly clear (21%)	6 kts NE	14 kts	1014	E - Poor	gust 14 kt · gust spread +8 kt · visibility not forecast Poor: gust 14 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Poor: gust spread +8 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gfs Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Good: cloud 21% [Good: 17.1–34.3%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
9.	0800	22°C	Mostly clear (20%)	6 kts NE	15 kts	1014	F - Very Poor	gust 15 kt · gust spread +9 kt · visibility not forecast Very Poor: gust 15 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Very Poor: gust spread +9 kt [Very Poor: 8.3–10 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Good: cloud 20% [Good: 17.1–34.3%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
10.	0900	26°C	Clear (10%)	8 kts NE	15 kts	1014	F - Very Poor	gust 15 kt · visibility not forecast Very Poor: gust 15 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Poor: gust spread +7 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Fair: wind 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: cloud 10% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
11.	1000	28°C	Clear (3%)	10 kts NE	15 kts	1014	F - Very Poor	gust 15 kt · visibility not forecast Very Poor: gust 15 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: gust spread +6 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: wind 10 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: cloud 3% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear
12.	1100	31°C	Clear (1%)	10 kts NE	15 kts	1014	F - Very Poor	gust 15 kt · visibility not forecast Very Poor: gust 15 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Marginal: gust spread +5 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: wind 10 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: cloud 1% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear
13.	1200	35°C	Clear (2%)	9 kts NE	17 kts	1013	F - Very Poor	gust 17 kt · visibility not forecast Very Poor: gust 17 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — ecmwf Poor: gust spread +8 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Marginal: wind 9 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: cloud 2% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind
14.	1300	36°C	Clear (2%)	9 kts NE	18 kts	1012	G - Unacceptable	gust 18 kt · visibility not forecast Unacceptable: gust 18 kt [Unacceptable: ≥ 18 kt] — ecmwf Very Poor: gust spread +9 kt [Very Poor: 8.3–10 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: wind 9 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: cloud 2% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind
15.	1400	36°C	Clear (3%)	10 kts NE	18 kts	1012	G - Unacceptable	gust 18 kt · visibility not forecast Unacceptable: gust 18 kt [Unacceptable: ≥ 18 kt] — ecmwf Poor: gust spread +9 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Marginal: wind 10 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: cloud 3% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind
16.	1500	35°C	Clear (4%)	10 kts NE	19 kts	1011	G - Unacceptable	gust 19 kt · visibility not forecast Unacceptable: gust 19 kt [Unacceptable: ≥ 18 kt] — ecmwf Very Poor: gust spread +9 kt [Very Poor: 8.3–10 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Marginal: wind 10 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: cloud 4% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind
17.	1600	34°C	Clear (3%)	9 kts NE	19 kts	1011	G - Unacceptable	gust 19 kt · gust spread +10 kt · visibility not forecast Unacceptable: gust 19 kt [Unacceptable: ≥ 18 kt] — ecmwf Unacceptable: gust spread +10 kt [Unacceptable: ≥ 10 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: wind 9 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: cloud 3% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind
18.	1700	32°C	Clear (3%)	8 kts NNE	16 kts	1011	F - Very Poor	gust 16 kt · visibility not forecast Very Poor: gust 16 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Poor: gust spread +8 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Fair: wind 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: cloud 3% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
19.	1800	29°C	Clear (1%)	7 kts NNE	17 kts	1012	G - Unacceptable	gust spread +10 kt · visibility not forecast Unacceptable: gust spread +10 kt [Unacceptable: ≥ 10 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Very Poor: gust 17 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Fair: wind 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: cloud 1% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk
20.	1900	27°C	Clear (0%)	6 kts NNE	17 kts	1012	G - Unacceptable	gust spread +11 kt · visibility not forecast Unacceptable: gust spread +11 kt [Unacceptable: ≥ 10 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Very Poor: gust 17 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gfs Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk
21.	2000	26°C	Clear (0%)	5 kts NNE	16 kts	1013	G - Unacceptable	gust spread +11 kt · visibility not forecast Unacceptable: gust spread +11 kt [Unacceptable: ≥ 10 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Very Poor: gust 16 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk
22.	2100	25°C	Clear (0%)	6 kts NNE	15 kts	1013	F - Very Poor	gust 15 kt · gust spread +10 kt · visibility not forecast Very Poor: gust 15 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Very Poor: gust spread +10 kt [Very Poor: 8.3–10 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
23.	2200	25°C	Clear (0%)	6 kts NNE	14 kts	1013	E - Poor	gust 14 kt · gust spread +8 kt · visibility not forecast Poor: gust 14 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Poor: gust spread +8 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gfs Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
24.	2300	24°C	Clear (0%)	6 kts NNE	14 kts	1013	E - Poor	gust 14 kt · gust spread +8 kt · visibility not forecast Poor: gust 14 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Poor: gust spread +8 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk

Confidence: 64% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 23% of readings interpolated · first light 0544L · last light 1802L · Moon 79 % illuminated, rises 14:16, sets 01:57.

Sat 21 Nov 26

Conditions are expected to be generally Unacceptable: mostly clear, winds up to 11 kts NE, gusting 19 kts and temperatures 18–36°C. No flyable windows (Marginal or better, ≥2 consecutive hrs) are forecast. Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall a deterioration from the previous day.

Meteogram — hourly forecast; shaded = before first light / after last light. Gaps mean no data.

Ser	Hrs	Temp	Cloud	Wind	Gust	QNH	Assessment	Driver	Remarks
(a)	(b)	(c)	(d)	(e)	(f)	(g)	(h)	(i)	(j)
1.	0001	22°C	Clear (0%)	6 kts NNE	13 kts	1013	E - Poor	gust 13 kt · gust spread +7 kt · visibility not forecast Poor: gust 13 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Poor: gust spread +7 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
2.	0100	21°C	Clear (0%)	6 kts NNE	12 kts	1013	E - Poor	gust 12 kt · visibility not forecast Poor: gust 12 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: gust spread +6 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear
3.	0200	20°C	Clear (0%)	6 kts NNE	12 kts	1013	E - Poor	gust 12 kt · visibility not forecast Poor: gust 12 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Marginal: gust spread +6 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear
4.	0300	20°C	Clear (0%)	6 kts NNE	11 kts	1013	· - No data	storm 6% · gust 11 kt · visibility not forecast Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Marginal: gust 11 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: gust spread +6 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear
5.	0400	19°C	Clear (0%)	6 kts NNE	11 kts	1013	· - No data	storm 6% · gust 11 kt · visibility not forecast Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: gust 11 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: gust spread +5 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear
6.	0500	19°C	Clear (0%)	5 kts NNE	13 kts	1013	E - Poor	gust 13 kt · gust spread +8 kt · visibility not forecast Poor: gust 13 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Poor: gust spread +8 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
7.	0600	18°C	Clear (0%)	5 kts NNE	15 kts	1013	G - Unacceptable	gust spread +10 kt · visibility not forecast Unacceptable: gust spread +10 kt [Unacceptable: ≥ 10 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Very Poor: gust 15 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk
8.	0700	19°C	Clear (0%)	6 kts NNE	15 kts	1014	F - Very Poor	gust 15 kt · gust spread +9 kt · visibility not forecast Very Poor: gust 15 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Very Poor: gust spread +9 kt [Very Poor: 8.3–10 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gfs Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: cloud 0% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
9.	0800	22°C	Clear (5%)	7 kts NE	17 kts	1014	G - Unacceptable	gust spread +10 kt · visibility not forecast Unacceptable: gust spread +10 kt [Unacceptable: ≥ 10 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Very Poor: gust 17 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Fair: wind 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: cloud 5% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk
10.	0900	25°C	Clear (10%)	9 kts NE	16 kts	1014	F - Very Poor	gust 16 kt · visibility not forecast Very Poor: gust 16 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Poor: gust spread +7 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Marginal: wind 9 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: cloud 10% [Excellent: ≤ 17.1%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind
11.	1000	28°C	Mostly clear (22%)	10 kts NE	16 kts	1014	F - Very Poor	gust 16 kt · visibility not forecast Very Poor: gust 16 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: gust spread +6 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: wind 10 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Good: cloud 22% [Good: 17.1–34.3%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear
12.	1100	30°C	Mostly clear (25%)	11 kts NE	16 kts	1013	F - Very Poor	gust 16 kt · visibility not forecast Very Poor: gust 16 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Marginal: gust spread +5 kt [Marginal: 5–6.7 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: wind 11 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Good: cloud 25% [Good: 17.1–34.3%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear
13.	1200	35°C	Partly cloudy (35%)	9 kts NE	16 kts	1013	F - Very Poor	gust 16 kt · visibility not forecast Very Poor: gust 16 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Poor: gust spread +7 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Marginal: wind 9 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Fair: cloud 35% [Fair: 34.3–42.9%] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind
14.	1300	36°C	Partly cloudy (54%)	9 kts NE	17 kts	1012	F - Very Poor	gust 17 kt · visibility not forecast Very Poor: gust 17 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Poor: cloud 54% [Poor: 51.4–60%] — ecmwf, gfs Poor: gust spread +8 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: wind 9 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, cloud cover, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind
15.	1400	36°C	Partly cloudy (59%)	9 kts NE	16 kts	1011	F - Very Poor	gust 16 kt · visibility not forecast Very Poor: gust 16 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Poor: cloud 59% [Poor: 51.4–60%] — ecmwf, gfs Poor: gust spread +7 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Marginal: wind 9 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, cloud cover, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind
16.	1500	35°C	Cloudy (72%)	9 kts NE	18 kts	1011	G - Unacceptable	cloud 72% · gust 18 kt · visibility not forecast Unacceptable: cloud 72% [Unacceptable: > 68.6%] — ecmwf, gfs Unacceptable: gust 18 kt [Unacceptable: ≥ 18 kt] — ecmwf Very Poor: gust spread +9 kt [Very Poor: 8.3–10 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Marginal: wind 9 kt [Marginal: 9–12 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind
17.	1600	34°C	Cloudy (67%)	8 kts NE	19 kts	1011	G - Unacceptable	gust 19 kt · gust spread +10 kt · visibility not forecast Unacceptable: gust 19 kt [Unacceptable: ≥ 18 kt] — ecmwf Unacceptable: gust spread +10 kt [Unacceptable: ≥ 10 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Very Poor: cloud 67% [Very Poor: 60–68.6%] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gfs Fair: wind 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk
18.	1700	32°C	Cloudy (69%)	8 kts NNE	16 kts	1011	G - Unacceptable	cloud 69% · visibility not forecast Unacceptable: cloud 69% [Unacceptable: > 68.6%] — ecmwf, gfs Very Poor: gust 16 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Poor: gust spread +8 kt [Poor: 6.7–8.3 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Fair: wind 8 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
19.	1800	28°C	Partly cloudy (53%)	6 kts NNE	16 kts	1011	G - Unacceptable	gust spread +10 kt · visibility not forecast Unacceptable: gust spread +10 kt [Unacceptable: ≥ 10 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Very Poor: gust 16 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Poor: cloud 53% [Poor: 51.4–60%] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Fair: wind 6 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	wind shear, gusts, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk
20.	1900	27°C	Mostly clear (29%)	5 kts NNE	17 kts	1012	G - Unacceptable	gust spread +12 kt · visibility not forecast Unacceptable: gust spread +12 kt [Unacceptable: ≥ 10 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Very Poor: gust 17 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gfs Good: cloud 29% [Good: 17.1–34.3%] — ecmwf, gfs Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk
21.	2000	25°C	Partly cloudy (38%)	5 kts NNE	16 kts	1012	G - Unacceptable	gust spread +11 kt · visibility not forecast Unacceptable: gust spread +11 kt [Unacceptable: ≥ 10 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Very Poor: gust 16 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Fair: cloud 38% [Fair: 34.3–42.9%] — ecmwf, gfs Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk
22.	2100	24°C	Partly cloudy (38%)	5 kts NNE	15 kts	1012	G - Unacceptable	gust spread +10 kt · visibility not forecast Unacceptable: gust spread +10 kt [Unacceptable: ≥ 10 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Very Poor: gust 15 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Fair: cloud 38% [Fair: 34.3–42.9%] — ecmwf, gfs Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk
23.	2200	24°C	Mostly clear (27%)	5 kts NNE	14 kts	1013	F - Very Poor	gust spread +9 kt · visibility not forecast Very Poor: gust spread +9 kt [Very Poor: 8.3–10 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Poor: gust 14 kt [Poor: 12–15 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — ecmwf, gfs Good: cloud 27% [Good: 17.1–34.3%] — ecmwf, gfs Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — ecmwf, gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — ecmwf, gfs visibility not forecast	wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk
24.	2300	23°C	Partly cloudy (51%)	5 kts N	15 kts	1013	G - Unacceptable	gust spread +10 kt · visibility not forecast Unacceptable: gust spread +10 kt [Unacceptable: ≥ 10 kt] — gfs Very Poor: gust 15 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Marginal: cloud 51% [Marginal: 42.9–51.4%] — gfs Good: wind 5 kt [Good: 3–6 kt] — gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — gfs visibility not forecast	⚠ wind shear, gusts, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk

Confidence: 62% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 21% of readings interpolated · first light 0544L · last light 1802L · Moon 87 % illuminated, rises 14:57, sets 02:48.

Sun 22 Nov 26

Conditions are expected to be generally Very Poor: partly cloudy, winds up to 7 kts N, gusting 16 kts and temperatures 20–20°C. No flyable windows (Marginal or better, ≥2 consecutive hrs) are forecast. Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001L. Overall an improvement on the previous day.

Meteogram — hourly forecast; shaded = before first light / after last light. Gaps mean no data.

Ser	Hrs	Temp	Cloud	Wind	Gust	QNH	Assessment	Driver	Remarks
(a)	(b)	(c)	(d)	(e)	(f)	(g)	(h)	(i)	(j)
1.	0001	20°C	Partly cloudy (41%)	7 kts N	16 kts	1013	F - Very Poor	gust 16 kt · gust spread +9 kt · visibility not forecast Very Poor: gust 16 kt [Very Poor: 15–18 kt] — gfs Very Poor: gust spread +9 kt [Very Poor: 8.3–10 kt] — gfs Marginal: storm 6% [Marginal: >0–15%] — gfs Fair: cloud 41% [Fair: 34.3–42.9%] — gfs Fair: wind 7 kt [Fair: 6–9 kt] — gfs Excellent: CAPE 0 J/kg [Excellent: < 1000 J/kg] — gfs Excellent: rain 0% [Excellent: < 5%] — gfs visibility not forecast	⚠ gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk
2.	0100	-	No data	-	-	-	· - No data	cloud, visibility, wind not forecast cloud, visibility, wind not forecast
3.	0200	-	No data	-	-	-	· - No data	cloud, visibility, wind not forecast cloud, visibility, wind not forecast
4.	0300	-	No data	-	-	-	· - No data	cloud, visibility, wind not forecast cloud, visibility, wind not forecast
5.	0400	-	No data	-	-	-	· - No data	cloud, visibility, wind not forecast cloud, visibility, wind not forecast
6.	0500	-	No data	-	-	-	· - No data	cloud, visibility, wind not forecast cloud, visibility, wind not forecast
7.	0600	-	No data	-	-	-	· - No data	cloud, visibility, wind not forecast cloud, visibility, wind not forecast
8.	0700	-	No data	-	-	-	· - No data	cloud, visibility, wind not forecast cloud, visibility, wind not forecast
9.	0800	-	No data	-	-	-	· - No data	cloud, visibility, wind not forecast cloud, visibility, wind not forecast
10.	0900	-	No data	-	-	-	· - No data	cloud, visibility, wind not forecast cloud, visibility, wind not forecast
11.	1000	-	No data	-	-	-	· - No data	cloud, visibility, wind not forecast cloud, visibility, wind not forecast
12.	1100	-	No data	-	-	-	· - No data	cloud, visibility, wind not forecast cloud, visibility, wind not forecast
13.	1200	-	No data	-	-	-	· - No data	cloud, visibility, wind not forecast cloud, visibility, wind not forecast
14.	1300	-	No data	-	-	-	· - No data	cloud, visibility, wind not forecast cloud, visibility, wind not forecast
15.	1400	-	No data	-	-	-	· - No data	cloud, visibility, wind not forecast cloud, visibility, wind not forecast
16.	1500	-	No data	-	-	-	· - No data	cloud, visibility, wind not forecast cloud, visibility, wind not forecast
17.	1600	-	No data	-	-	-	· - No data	cloud, visibility, wind not forecast cloud, visibility, wind not forecast
18.	1700	-	No data	-	-	-	· - No data	cloud, visibility, wind not forecast cloud, visibility, wind not forecast
19.	1800	-	No data	-	-	-	· - No data	cloud, visibility, wind not forecast cloud, visibility, wind not forecast
20.	1900	-	No data	-	-	-	· - No data	cloud, visibility, wind not forecast cloud, visibility, wind not forecast
21.	2000	-	No data	-	-	-	· - No data	cloud, visibility, wind not forecast cloud, visibility, wind not forecast
22.	2100	-	No data	-	-	-	· - No data	cloud, visibility, wind not forecast cloud, visibility, wind not forecast
23.	2200	-	No data	-	-	-	· - No data	cloud, visibility, wind not forecast cloud, visibility, wind not forecast
24.	2300	-	No data	-	-	-	· - No data	cloud, visibility, wind not forecast cloud, visibility, wind not forecast

Confidence: 2% — data for 1 of 24 hours · first light 0545L · last light 1802L · Moon 93 % illuminated, rises 15:42, sets 03:42.

TAF

Valid (day hh Z)	Type	Wind	Visibility	Weather	Cloud
(a)	(b)	(c)	(d)	(e)	(f)
11 18Z - 12 24Z	prevailing	wind 060 deg 6 kt	10 km or more	none	no significant cloud

Decoded for reading; the raw TAF below is authoritative.

TAF DNMA 111700Z 1118/1224 06006KT CAVOK

Imagery

Dust RGB (pink/magenta = airborne dust) — captured 12 Nov 01:47 WAT (4 min ago) · ©EUMETSAT (screenshot via EUMETView)

Convection RGB (yellow = vigorous storms) — captured 12 Nov 01:47 WAT (4 min ago) · ©EUMETSAT (screenshot via EUMETView)

Infrared 10.5 µm (cold tops = deep cloud) — captured 12 Nov 01:47 WAT (4 min ago) · ©EUMETSAT (screenshot via EUMETView)

Accumulated lightning flash area (MTG-LI) — captured 12 Nov 01:47 WAT (4 min ago) · ©EUMETSAT (screenshot via EUMETView)

Source panel

Source	Accuracy	Skill n	Temp °C	Wind kt	Visibility	Storm
(a)	(b)	(c)	(d)	(e)	(f)	(g)
Aviation Weather Center (aviationweather.gov)	≈ 1.0	1707	—	6	10+ km	—
ECMWF	▲ 1.2	5598	20–23	4–6	—	0 %
Canada GEM	▲ 1.2	6707	17–20	3	—	0 %
NOAA GFS	▽ 0.9	10812	20–23	6–8	10+ km	0 %
DWD ICON	▲ 1.3	9007	17–20	3	—	0 %
JMA GSM	▽ 0.9	6705	22–25	5–8	—	0 %
UK Met Office	▲ 1.1	6476	15–19	2–4	10+ km	0 %
wttr.in	▽ 0.9	1145	20–23	5–6	10+ km	0 %

Each source's own raw values, min–max over the next 6 hours from the issue hour (before any weighting or bias correction). — means the source does not publish that metric in the window. Wide gaps between rows are real disagreement; the forecast above weights sources by measured skill.

Reading this report

Grades: each hour carries one grade, set by its WORST factor. The bands below are the thresholds in force for this report (Settings); a value in a band earns that grade, and "-" means the factor never produces that grade. Cloud is graded on the worse of cover and ceiling. The Driver column names the limiting factor with its value; open it in the web report for the boundary and sources.

Grade	Cloud cover	Cloud ceiling	Visibility	Wind	Gust	Rain chance	Thunderstorm probability
(a)	(b)	(c)	(d)	(e)	(f)	(g)	(h)
A Excellent	≤ 17.1%	≥ 30000 ft	≥ 8000 m	< 3 kt	< 3 kt	< 5%	0%
B Good	17.1–34.3%	26000–30000 ft	6666.7–8000 m	3–6 kt	3–6 kt	5–10%	-
C Fair	34.3–42.9%	24000–26000 ft	5333.3–6666.7 m	6–9 kt	6–9 kt	10–15%	-
D Marginal	42.9–51.4%	22000–24000 ft	4000–5333.3 m	9–12 kt	9–12 kt	15–20%	>0–15%
E Poor	51.4–60%	16000–22000 ft	2666.7–4000 m	12–15 kt	12–15 kt	20–25%	15–30%
F Very Poor	60–68.6%	10000–16000 ft	1333.3–2666.7 m	15–18 kt	15–18 kt	25–30%	30–60%
G Unacceptable	> 68.6%	< 10000 ft	< 1333.3 m	≥ 18 kt	≥ 18 kt	≥ 30%	> 60%

Flight windows: a window is at least 2 consecutive hours graded Marginal or better; an hour with insufficient data never counts toward one. ☾ marks a window outside first-to-last light.

Time: hours are local time (WAT, UTC+1) unless suffixed Z, which is UTC (TAF, METAR and issue times). Local midnight is labelled 0001.

Units: temperature °C · wind and gusts knots · visibility metres (km in text) · cloud ceiling feet · cloud cover % · rain chance and thunderstorm probability % · QNH hPa (altimeter setting at the field) · CAPE J/kg. A figure like "28 (26–30)°C" gives the p10–p90 range; "spread" marks disagreement between sources.

Symbols: ▲ better than the pool · ▽ worse (only when the 95% interval excludes the pool) · ≈ not distinguishable from the pool · unmarked = unproven (accuracy is measured against METAR and SYNOP observations). ⚠ on a remark means a low-confidence hour; a ⚠ paragraph on the first page is a convective-warning or data-age advisory. ⚡ is lightning observed by satellite near the field (©EUMETSAT).

Hourly glyphs: the wind arrow points the way the air moves (a north wind is ↓, an east wind ←); cloud cover shows as ☀ ◔ ◑ ◕ ☁ (clear, few, scattered, broken, overcast); a shaded hour label is wholly before first light or after last light.

Terms: "No data" - no source forecast the hour, or a core group (cloud, visibility, wind) is missing and the hour could still be flyable; missing data is never given a good grade. "Low-confidence" - few or weak sources behind the load-bearing metrics; treat the grade as indicative. "Insufficient data" - too little to grade at all. "Estimated" (est.) - the value is derived, not reported by a source (dust visibility, cloud base, gusts); it is declared where used and weighted at half. "Derived" - an hour interpolated from a coarser (3-hourly or daily) source, weighted at half and never used to score accuracy.

Data provenance

Source	Fetched (Z)	Age	Skill n	Accuracy
(a)	(b)	(c)	(d)	(e)
Aviation Weather Center (aviationweather.gov)	12 Nov 00:49Z	3 min	1707	≈ 1.0
Copernicus CAMS (via Open-Meteo)	12 Nov 00:49Z	3 min	-	-
ECMWF	12 Nov 00:48Z	4 min	5598	▲ 1.2
Canada GEM	12 Nov 00:48Z	3 min	6707	▲ 1.2
NOAA GFS	12 Nov 00:48Z	3 min	10812	▽ 0.9
DWD ICON	12 Nov 00:48Z	3 min	9007	▲ 1.3
JMA GSM	12 Nov 00:48Z	3 min	6705	▽ 0.9
UK Met Office	12 Nov 00:48Z	3 min	6476	▲ 1.1
wttr.in	12 Nov 00:49Z	2 min	1145	▽ 0.9

Corrections applied (detailed under Learned corrections on the first page): skill weighting, bias correction, hour-of-day bias, cloud-base estimate, probability calibration, fog risk, climatology bounds, skill blend.

How accurate have we been

Measured against observations (METAR/SYNOP), maiduguri only. Verification table computed 2026-11-12. Mean absolute error (MAE): lower is better; "beats persistence" compares the best source with "it will stay as it is now" on the same hours.

Metric	Best source	Best MAE	Typical MAE	Persistence MAE	Beats persistence by	Pairs
(a)	(b)	(c)	(d)	(e)	(f)	(g)
Temperature (°C)	meteoblue	1.5	2.2	5.3	81 %	2039
Dew point (°C)	aifs	1.7	6.6	2.6	41 %	312
Wind speed (kt)	aifs	1.7	3.2	2.8	34 %	215
Visibility (m)	ukmo	445	542	1270	64 %	2039
Cloud cover (%)	accuweather	10	55	10	-	27

Thunderstorm probability: dots on the dashed line mean a stated probability matched how often it happened (237588 pairs, all places pooled).

Chance of rain: dots on the dashed line mean a stated probability matched how often it happened (223611 pairs, all places pooled).

Learned bias (forecast minus observed; positive = sources run high), mean over scored sources, by local time of day. These are corrected for before sources are averaged.

Metric	Overall	Night	Morning	Afternoon	Evening	Pairs
(a)	(b)	(c)	(d)	(e)	(f)	(g)
Temperature (°C)	+0.4	+1.7	+1.2	-0.9	+0.0	40262
Dew point (°C)	-6.3	-6.3	-6.0	-6.7	-6.4	35108
Wind speed (kt)	+0.2	+0.2	-0.1	+0.6	-0.0	25037

Not yet available: Scores are decayed over the verification window (half-life 14 days); separate last-7-day and last-30-day windows are not stored. Bias is the current learned value; the history needed for a trend over time is not stored. Flight-window hit / bust / miss is not yet recorded.