Kaduna — 14-Day Forecast
DNKA · issued 10 Nov 26 00:23Z
Sources used (19): ECMWF AIFS≈ 1.1 Aviation Weather Center (aviationweather.gov)≈ 1.0 Copernicus CAMS (via Open-Meteo) ECMWF▲ 1.1 Open-Meteo Ensemble (ECMWF IFS + GEFS)≈ 1.0 Foreca▲ 1.1 Canada GEM≈ 1.0 NOAA GFS≈ 1.0 DWD ICON▲ 1.1 JMA GSM▽ 0.9 MetCheck▽ 0.8 Météo-France▲ 1.2 Met.no (Yr)≈ 1.1 Open-Meteo▲ 1.1 OpenWeather≈ 1.1 Tomorrow.io▲ 1.1 UK Met Office▲ 1.1 Visual Crossing▲ 1.1 wttr.in≈ 0.9
▲ better than the pool · ▽ worse (only when the 95% interval excludes the pool) · ≈ not distinguishable from the pool · unmarked = unproven (accuracy is measured against METAR and SYNOP observations)
Best window (highest confidence, then grade, then length): Sun 15 Nov 26 0001–0700L (Marginal, 8 h) ☾, confidence 86%.
Learned corrections (METAR-verified): skill weighting — pooled all-field scores for 206; bias corrections — JMA GSM wind +3.9 kt, MetCheck wind +3.7 kt, meteoblue wind +3.3 kt, ECMWF AIFS wind +3.1 kt, meteoblue QNH −3.0 hPa, Open-Meteo dewpoint +3.0 °C (+67 more); hour-of-day bias (local time, shrunk toward the all-hours bias) — JMA GSM afternoon wind +5.0 kt, MetCheck afternoon wind +4.7 kt, meteoblue afternoon wind +4.0 kt, ECMWF AIFS afternoon wind +3.8 kt, Open-Meteo afternoon wind +3.5 kt, meteoblue evening wind +3.4 kt (+284 more); cloud base estimated as 410 ft per °C of dewpoint spread for sources that report no ceiling (≥60% cloud cover; flagged estimated, weighted ×0.5); probability calibration — rain chance: meteoblue, Open-Meteo, Foreca, MetCheck, OpenWeather, Visual Crossing, Tomorrow.io, wttr.in, ECMWF, NOAA GFS, DWD ICON, UK Met Office, Canada GEM, Open-Meteo Ensemble (ECMWF IFS + GEFS); storm: Open-Meteo, Met.no (Yr), Foreca, OpenWeather, Visual Crossing, Tomorrow.io, wttr.in, ECMWF, NOAA GFS, DWD ICON, Météo-France, Aviation Weather Center (aviationweather.gov), UK Met Office, JMA GSM, Canada GEM, Open-Meteo Ensemble (ECMWF IFS + GEFS), ECMWF AIFS (each source's stated probability mapped to its verified frequency by an isotonic fit on ≥200 pairs, proven on the holdout); fog risk (n=1096): observed fog frequency by dewpoint spread, wind, local hour and season for the forecast conditions (shown from 10 %), proven on the holdout; plausibility bounds from ERA5 climatology 2016-2025 (mean ± 5 sd; screening only, not observed truth); skill blend 1 auto-tuned over 9864 holdout pairs (consensus beat the best single source, DWD ICON, by 14%); correction gates (newest-7-day holdout; pooled skill is always on) — regional skill: off this week (did not improve holdout); place skill: off this week (did not improve holdout); lead-time skill: off this week (did not improve holdout); small-sample skill shrinkage: off this week (did not improve holdout); bias correction: on (improved holdout by 27.2%); place bias: on (improved holdout by 10.7%); hour-of-day bias: on (improved holdout by 6.4%); QNH bias: on (improved holdout by 55.9%); gust estimates: off this week (did not improve holdout); cloud-base coefficient: off this week (insufficient holdout: 84 of 200 items); recent-form skill: off this week (did not improve holdout); probability calibration: on (improved holdout by 42.4%); nowcast anchor horizon: off this week (did not improve holdout); dust-visibility estimate: off this week (did not improve holdout); fog risk: on (improved holdout by 3.1%).
Outlook
| Day | Date | Outlook | Temp | Max wind | Flight windows | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) |
| Tue | 10 Nov 26 | Unacceptable | 22–36°C | 11 kts ENE, g 18 | 0100–0500L (Marginal, 5 h) ☾ | 79% | 12% interpolated |
| Wed | 11 Nov 26 | Unacceptable | 21–36°C | 12 kts ENE, g 19 | 1900–2100L (Marginal, 3 h) ☾ | 79% | 12% interpolated |
| Thu | 12 Nov 26 | Marginal | 20–35°C | 8 kts NNE, g 12 | 1400–2300L (Marginal, 10 h) ☾ | 80% | 14% interpolated |
| Fri | 13 Nov 26 | Marginal | 19–34°C | 7 kts NE, g 12 | 0001–0300L (Marginal, 4 h) ☾; 1400–2300L (Marginal, 10 h) ☾ | 80% | 13% interpolated |
| Sat | 14 Nov 26 | Marginal | 18–34°C | 10 kts ENE, g 16 | 0001–0700L (Marginal, 8 h) ☾; 1700–2300L (Marginal, 7 h) ☾ | 83% | 16% interpolated |
| Sun | 15 Nov 26 | Marginal | 18–35°C | 10 kts ENE, g 17 | 0001–0700L (Marginal, 8 h) ☾; 2200–2300L (Marginal, 2 h) ☾ | 86% | 20% interpolated |
| Mon | 16 Nov 26 | Marginal | 19–35°C | 10 kts ENE, g 16 | 0001–0700L (Marginal, 8 h) ☾ | 86% | 19% interpolated |
| Tue | 17 Nov 26 | Poor | 19–35°C | 8 kts ENE, g 15 | none | 79% | 26% interpolated |
| Wed | 18 Nov 26 | Poor | 19–35°C | 8 kts NE, g 13 | none | 78% | 26% interpolated |
| Thu | 19 Nov 26 | Unacceptable | 19–35°C | 10 kts ENE, g 16 | 0001–0700L (Marginal, 8 h) ☾ | 77% | 21% interpolated |
| Fri | 20 Nov 26 | Very Poor | 20–35°C | 11 kts ENE, g 19 | none | 69% | 1% interpolated |
| Sat | 21 Nov 26 | Unacceptable | 21–35°C | 12 kts ENE, g 19 | none | 69% | |
| Sun | 22 Nov 26 | Very Poor | 20–35°C | 11 kts NE, g 17 | 0100–0300L (Marginal, 3 h) ☾ | 69% | |
| Mon | 23 Nov 26 | Very Poor | 21–35°C | 11 kts ENE, g 17 | 0300–0500L (Marginal, 3 h) ☾ | 69% |
Today — Tue 10 Nov 26
| 00–06L | 06–12L | 12–18L | 18–24L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind | C | F | G | E |
| Visibility | A | A | A | A |
| Cloud / ceiling | D | G | G | G |
| Precipitation | A | A | A | A |
| Thunderstorm | D | D | D | D |
| Fog | A | A | · | · |
A Excellent · B Good · C Fair · D Marginal (flyable) · E Poor · F Very Poor · G Unacceptable · (worst condition in each period)
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 25°C | Clear (0%) | 5 kts SE | 7 kts | 1017 | · - No data | storm 0% · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 25 (22–24)°C | Clear (5%) | 5 (2–5) kts ESE | 6 kts | 1018 | D - Marginal | storm 5%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 24 (22–23)°C | Clear (8%) | 4 (2–4) kts ESE | 6 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 5%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 24 (22–23)°C | Mostly clear (21%) | 4 (2–4) kts ESE | 5 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 5%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 5. | 0400 | 23 (21–23)°C | Partly cloudy (40%) | 3 (1–4) kts ESE | 4 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 5%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 6. | 0500 | 23 (21–22)°C | Partly cloudy (50%) | 4 (1–3) kts ESE | 4 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · cloud 50%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 22 (20–22)°C | Cloudy (60%) | 5 (1–3) kts ESE | 4 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | cloud 60%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 22 (21–22)°C | Cloudy (68%) | 4 (1–3) kts E | 5 kts | 1018 | F - Very Poor | cloud 68%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 24 (23–24)°C | Cloudy (68%) | 4 (1–4) kts ENE | 5 kts | 1019 | F - Very Poor | cloud 68%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 10. | 0900 | 27 (26–27)°C | Cloudy (72%) | 4 (1–6) kts ENE | 7 kts | 1020 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 72%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 11. | 1000 | 30 (28–30)°C | Cloudy (87%) | 5 (1–7) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1020 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 87%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 12. | 1100 | 32 (30–32)°C | Cloudy (66%) | 8 (2–8) kts ENE | 15 kts | 1020 | F - Very Poor | cloud 66% · gust 15 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 13. | 1200 | 35 (31–34)°C | Overcast (96%) | 10 (5–9) kts ENE | 17 kts | 1019 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 96%
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 14. | 1300 | 36 (32–35)°C | Overcast (97%) | 11 (6–9) kts ENE | 17 kts | 1018 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 97%
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 36 (33–35)°C | Overcast (97%) | 11 (6–10) kts ENE | 18 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 97% · gust 18 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 16. | 1500 | 36 (33–35)°C | Overcast (97%) | 11 (6–10) kts ENE | 18 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 97% · gust 18 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 17. | 1600 | 36 (32–35)°C | Overcast (93%) | 11 (6–10) kts ENE | 17 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 93%
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 18. | 1700 | 34 (31–33)°C | Overcast (97%) | 10 (5–9) kts ENE | 15 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 97%
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 19. | 1800 | 31 (28–30)°C | Overcast (99%) | 7 (4–7) kts NE | 13 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 99%
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 20. | 1900 | 30 (26–28)°C | Overcast (99%) | 7 (3–6) kts NE | 10 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 99%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 21. | 2000 | 28 (25–26)°C | Overcast (94%) | 6 (2–6) kts NE | 9 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 94%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 22. | 2100 | 27 (24–26)°C | Overcast (94%) | 6 (2–6) kts ENE | 8 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 94%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 26 (23–25)°C | Overcast (97%) | 6 (3–5) kts E | 8 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 97%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 25 (22–24)°C | Overcast (96%) | 6 (3–5) kts SE | 7 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 96%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 79% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 12% of readings interpolated · first light 0601L · last light 1826L · Moon 2 % illuminated, rises 07:14, sets 18:56.
Tomorrow — Wed 11 Nov 26
| 00–06L | 06–12L | 12–18L | 18–24L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind | C | F | G | E |
| Visibility | A | A | A | A |
| Cloud / ceiling | G | G | E | G |
| Precipitation | A | A | A | A |
| Thunderstorm | D | D | D | D |
| Fog | A | A | · | · |
A Excellent · B Good · C Fair · D Marginal (flyable) · E Poor · F Very Poor · G Unacceptable · (worst condition in each period)
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 25 (22–24)°C | Overcast (93%) | 4 (2–5) kts SE | 6 kts | 1018 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 93%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 24 (21–23)°C | Overcast (94%) | 4 (2–5) kts SSE | 6 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 94%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 23 (20–23)°C | Overcast (95%) | 5 (2–5) kts S | 6 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 95%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 23 (20–22)°C | Overcast (95%) | 4 (1–4) kts SSE | 6 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 95%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 5. | 0400 | 23 (20–22)°C | Overcast (96%) | 4 (1–4) kts SSE | 6 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 96%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 6. | 0500 | 22 (19–21)°C | Cloudy (86%) | 3 (1–3) kts SE | 5 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 86%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 21 (19–21)°C | Cloudy (70%) | 4 (1–4) kts ENE | 5 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 70%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 22 (19–22)°C | Partly cloudy (56%) | 4 (2–5) kts ENE | 5 kts | 1018 | E - Poor | cloud 56%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 24 (21–24)°C | Partly cloudy (58%) | 4 (2–5) kts ENE | 7 kts | 1019 | E - Poor | cloud 58%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 10. | 0900 | 26 (25–27)°C | Partly cloudy (58%) | 6 (3–7) kts E | 9 kts | 1020 | E - Poor | cloud 58%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 11. | 1000 | 29 (27–29)°C | Partly cloudy (57%) | 7 (3–8) kts E | 12 kts | 1020 | E - Poor | cloud 57% · gust 12 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 12. | 1100 | 31 (29–31)°C | Partly cloudy (47%) | 9 (3–9) kts E | 17 kts | 1020 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 13. | 1200 | 34 (31–33)°C | Partly cloudy (38%) | 12 (4–10) kts E | 19 kts | 1018 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt
| gusts, strong wind, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 14. | 1300 | 35 (32–34)°C | Partly cloudy (43%) | 12 (5–11) kts ENE | 19 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt
| gusts, strong wind, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 15. | 1400 | 35 (32–34)°C | Partly cloudy (44%) | 11 (4–11) kts ENE | 18 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 16. | 1500 | 36 (32–35)°C | Partly cloudy (48%) | 11 (4–10) kts NE | 17 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 17. | 1600 | 35 (32–34)°C | Partly cloudy (49%) | 11 (4–10) kts NE | 17 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 18. | 1700 | 33 (30–32)°C | Partly cloudy (57%) | 11 (4–8) kts NE | 15 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 19. | 1800 | 30 (27–29)°C | Partly cloudy (37%) | 8 (3–7) kts NE | 12 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 28 (25–27)°C | Partly cloudy (40%) | 7 (3–6) kts NNE | 10 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 10 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 21. | 2000 | 27 (24–25)°C | Partly cloudy (45%) | 7 (2–6) kts NE | 9 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · cloud 45%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 22. | 2100 | 26 (23–25)°C | Partly cloudy (46%) | 7 (2–6) kts NE | 8 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · cloud 46%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 25 (22–24)°C | Partly cloudy (57%) | 7 (3–6) kts NE | 9 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | cloud 57%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 24. | 2300 | 25 (21–23)°C | Cloudy (73%) | 7 (3–6) kts ENE | 8 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 73%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 79% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 12% of readings interpolated · first light 0602L · last light 1826L · Moon 5 % illuminated, rises 08:07, sets 19:46.
Extended Outlook
| Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | Mon | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind | E | E | F | F | F | F | F | G | G | G | G | G |
| Visibility | A | A | A | A | A | · | A | A | A | A | A | A |
| Cloud / ceiling | G | G | B | A | A | A | B | G | G | B | B | B |
| Precipitation | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A |
| Thunderstorm | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
| Fog | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A |
| Overall | G | G | F | F | F | F | F | G | G | G | G | G |
A Excellent · B Good · C Fair · D Marginal (flyable) · E Poor · F Very Poor · G Unacceptable · (worst condition in each period)
Thu 12 Nov 26
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 24 (20–23)°C | Cloudy (82%) | 5 (3–5) kts ENE | 8 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 82%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 23 (20–22)°C | Cloudy (86%) | 5 (2–5) kts E | 7 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 86%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 22 (19–22)°C | Overcast (91%) | 5 (2–5) kts E | 6 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 91%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 22 (19–21)°C | Overcast (92%) | 5 (2–5) kts E | 6 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 92%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 5. | 0400 | 21 (18–21)°C | Cloudy (86%) | 5 (2–5) kts E | 6 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 86%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 6. | 0500 | 21 (18–20)°C | Cloudy (84%) | 5 (1–6) kts ENE | 5 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 84%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 20 (17–20)°C | Cloudy (77%) | 5 (1–6) kts ENE | 5 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 77%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 20 (17–21)°C | Cloudy (72%) | 5 (1–6) kts E | 6 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 72%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 22 (20–23)°C | Cloudy (68%) | 5 (1–6) kts E | 7 kts | 1018 | F - Very Poor | cloud 68%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 10. | 0900 | 26 (24–26)°C | Cloudy (62%) | 5 (2–7) kts E | 9 kts | 1019 | F - Very Poor | cloud 62%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 11. | 1000 | 28 (27–29)°C | Cloudy (61%) | 6 (2–7) kts E | 11 kts | 1019 | F - Very Poor | cloud 61%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 12. | 1100 | 30 (29–31)°C | Partly cloudy (51%) | 6 (2–7) kts E | 12 kts | 1019 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 13. | 1200 | 33 (30–33)°C | Partly cloudy (35%) | 8 (1–6) kts E | 12 kts | 1018 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 14. | 1300 | 34 (31–34)°C | Partly cloudy (46%) | 7 (2–6) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 35 (31–34)°C | Partly cloudy (37%) | 7 (2–7) kts NE | 11 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 11 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 16. | 1500 | 35 (31–34)°C | Mostly clear (24%) | 8 (3–7) kts NE | 11 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 11 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 17. | 1600 | 34 (30–33)°C | Mostly clear (16%) | 8 (4–7) kts NNE | 11 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 11 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 18. | 1700 | 33 (29–31)°C | Mostly clear (22%) | 8 (3–6) kts NNE | 10 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 10 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 19. | 1800 | 30 (27–28)°C | Mostly clear (22%) | 6 (2–5) kts NE | 8 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 5%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 28 (25–27)°C | Mostly clear (22%) | 6 (1–4) kts NE | 6 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 5%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 27 (23–25)°C | Mostly clear (19%) | 5 (1–4) kts NE | 5 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 25 (22–24)°C | Mostly clear (22%) | 6 (2–5) kts NE | 6 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 24 (21–23)°C | Mostly clear (31%) | 6 (3–6) kts ENE | 7 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 23 (20–22)°C | Partly cloudy (44%) | 6 (2–6) kts ENE | 8 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · cloud 44%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 80% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 14% of readings interpolated · first light 0602L · last light 1826L · Moon 9 % illuminated, rises 08:59, sets 20:38.
Fri 13 Nov 26
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 22 (19–22)°C | Partly cloudy (39%) | 5 (2–6) kts E | 7 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 22 (19–21)°C | Partly cloudy (40%) | 5 (2–5) kts E | 7 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 21 (18–21)°C | Partly cloudy (41%) | 4 (1–6) kts E | 7 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 21 (18–20)°C | Partly cloudy (43%) | 4 (1–6) kts E | 6 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · cloud 43%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 5. | 0400 | 20 (17–20)°C | Partly cloudy (59%) | 4 (1–6) kts E | 6 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | cloud 59%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 6. | 0500 | 19 (17–20)°C | Partly cloudy (59%) | 4 (1–6) kts E | 5 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | cloud 59%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 19 (16–19)°C | Cloudy (64%) | 5 (1–6) kts E | 5 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | cloud 64%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 19 (17–20)°C | Cloudy (69%) | 5 (2–6) kts E | 5 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 69%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 21 (19–22)°C | Cloudy (60%) | 5 (2–7) kts E | 7 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | cloud 60%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 10. | 0900 | 25 (23–25)°C | Cloudy (65%) | 6 (2–7) kts E | 9 kts | 1018 | F - Very Poor | cloud 65%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 11. | 1000 | 28 (26–27)°C | Cloudy (61%) | 6 (2–7) kts E | 11 kts | 1019 | F - Very Poor | cloud 61%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 12. | 1100 | 30 (28–30)°C | Partly cloudy (58%) | 6 (2–7) kts E | 12 kts | 1018 | E - Poor | cloud 58% · gust 12 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 13. | 1200 | 32 (29–32)°C | Partly cloudy (56%) | 7 (1–6) kts E | 11 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | cloud 56%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 14. | 1300 | 33 (30–34)°C | Partly cloudy (57%) | 6 (2–5) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | cloud 57%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 34 (30–34)°C | Partly cloudy (50%) | 6 (2–5) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · cloud 50%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 16. | 1500 | 34 (30–33)°C | Partly cloudy (38%) | 7 (2–5) kts NE | 11 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 11 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 17. | 1600 | 33 (29–32)°C | Mostly clear (29%) | 7 (2–5) kts NE | 11 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 11 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 18. | 1700 | 32 (28–30)°C | Mostly clear (23%) | 7 (3–5) kts NE | 10 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 10 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 19. | 1800 | 29 (26–27)°C | Mostly clear (16%) | 6 (3–5) kts NNE | 9 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 9 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 20. | 1900 | 27 (24–25)°C | Clear (11%) | 6 (3–5) kts NNE | 9 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 9 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 21. | 2000 | 26 (22–24)°C | Clear (7%) | 6 (3–5) kts NNE | 8 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 25 (21–23)°C | Clear (3%) | 6 (2–6) kts NE | 8 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 24 (20–23)°C | Clear (3%) | 7 (3–6) kts NE | 9 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 9 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 24. | 2300 | 23 (20–22)°C | Clear (4%) | 7 (2–6) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 10 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
Confidence: 80% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 13% of readings interpolated · first light 0602L · last light 1826L · Moon 15 % illuminated, rises 09:49, sets 21:29.
Sat 14 Nov 26
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 22 (19–21)°C | Clear (5%) | 6 (2–6) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 9 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 2. | 0100 | 21 (18–20)°C | Clear (4%) | 6 (3–6) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 9 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 3. | 0200 | 20 (17–20)°C | Clear (3%) | 6 (3–6) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 4. | 0300 | 20 (17–19)°C | Clear (4%) | 6 (3–6) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 5. | 0400 | 19 (16–19)°C | Clear (4%) | 6 (3–6) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 9 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 6. | 0500 | 19 (16–18)°C | Clear (5%) | 6 (3–6) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 18 (15–18)°C | Clear (4%) | 7 (3–6) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 18 (16–18)°C | Clear (2%) | 7 (3–7) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 10 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 21 (19–21)°C | Clear (10%) | 8 (4–7) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 10. | 0900 | 24 (22–24)°C | Mostly clear (17%) | 8 (4–8) kts ENE | 14 kts | 1018 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 11. | 1000 | 27 (25–27)°C | Mostly clear (21%) | 9 (5–9) kts ENE | 16 kts | 1019 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 12. | 1100 | 29 (27–29)°C | Mostly clear (21%) | 9 (5–8) kts ENE | 16 kts | 1018 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 13. | 1200 | 32 (29–31)°C | Mostly clear (25%) | 10 (5–8) kts ENE | 16 kts | 1017 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 14. | 1300 | 33 (30–32)°C | Mostly clear (30%) | 9 (4–7) kts ENE | 15 kts | 1017 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 34 (30–33)°C | Mostly clear (28%) | 9 (3–7) kts ENE | 15 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 16. | 1500 | 34 (30–33)°C | Mostly clear (30%) | 8 (3–6) kts ENE | 14 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 17. | 1600 | 33 (30–32)°C | Mostly clear (19%) | 8 (3–6) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 18. | 1700 | 32 (28–30)°C | Mostly clear (20%) | 8 (3–6) kts NE | 11 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 19. | 1800 | 29 (26–28)°C | Mostly clear (14%) | 6 (4–6) kts NE | 10 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 20. | 1900 | 27 (24–25)°C | Clear (7%) | 7 (4–6) kts NNE | 11 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 11 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 21. | 2000 | 26 (22–24)°C | Mostly clear (15%) | 7 (4–6) kts NE | 11 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 22. | 2100 | 25 (22–23)°C | Clear (10%) | 7 (4–6) kts NE | 11 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 23. | 2200 | 24 (21–23)°C | Clear (10%) | 7 (4–7) kts NE | 10 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 10 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 24. | 2300 | 23 (20–22)°C | Clear (10%) | 7 (4–7) kts NE | 11 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
Confidence: 83% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 16% of readings interpolated · first light 0603L · last light 1826L · Moon 23 % illuminated, rises 10:37, sets 22:21.
Sun 15 Nov 26
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 22 (19–21)°C | Clear (9%) | 7 (4–6) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 2. | 0100 | 22 (19–20)°C | Clear (7%) | 7 (4–6) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 10 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 3. | 0200 | 21 (18–20)°C | Clear (7%) | 6 (3–6) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 4. | 0300 | 20 (18–19)°C | Clear (8%) | 6 (3–6) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 5. | 0400 | 20 (17–19)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (4–6) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 6. | 0500 | 19 (17–18)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (4–6) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 18 (16–18)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (4–7) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 19 (17–19)°C | Clear (0%) | 8 (4–8) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 21 (19–21)°C | Clear (0%) | 8 (5–8) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 10. | 0900 | 25 (23–24)°C | Clear (0%) | 9 (6–8) kts ENE | 15 kts | 1017 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 11. | 1000 | 28 (26–27)°C | Clear (0%) | 10 (6–9) kts ENE | 16 kts | 1018 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 12. | 1100 | 30 (28–30)°C | Clear (0%) | 10 (6–9) kts ENE | 17 kts | 1017 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 13. | 1200 | 33 (30–32)°C | Clear (0%) | 10 (5–9) kts ENE | 17 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 14. | 1300 | 34 (31–33)°C | Clear (0%) | 10 (4–9) kts ENE | 16 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 35 (31–34)°C | Clear (0%) | 10 (4–8) kts ENE | 16 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 16. | 1500 | 34 (30–34)°C | Clear (0%) | 10 (3–8) kts ENE | 16 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 17. | 1600 | 34 (29–33)°C | Clear (0%) | 9 (3–7) kts NE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 18. | 1700 | 32 (28–31)°C | Clear (0%) | 9 (3–6) kts NE | 14 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 19. | 1800 | 30 (26–28)°C | Clear (1%) | 7 (4–6) kts NNE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 20. | 1900 | 28 (24–26)°C | Clear (1%) | 7 (4–6) kts NNE | 12 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 21. | 2000 | 27 (23–25)°C | Clear (1%) | 7 (4–5) kts NNE | 12 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 22. | 2100 | 26 (22–24)°C | Clear (1%) | 7 (3–5) kts NE | 12 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 23. | 2200 | 25 (21–23)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (3–5) kts NE | 10 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 24. | 2300 | 24 (20–22)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (3–6) kts NE | 10 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
Confidence: 86% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 20% of readings interpolated · first light 0603L · last light 1826L · Moon 31 % illuminated, rises 11:22, sets 23:10.
Mon 16 Nov 26
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 23 (20–21)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (3–6) kts NE | 9 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 2. | 0100 | 22 (19–21)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (2–6) kts ENE | 8 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 5%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 21 (18–20)°C | Clear (1%) | 7 (2–6) kts ENE | 8 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 21 (17–20)°C | Clear (1%) | 7 (2–6) kts ENE | 8 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 5. | 0400 | 20 (17–19)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (3–7) kts ENE | 8 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 5%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 6. | 0500 | 20 (16–19)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (3–7) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 19 (16–18)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (3–7) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 19 (17–19)°C | Clear (0%) | 8 (3–8) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 22 (19–21)°C | Clear (0%) | 8 (3–8) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 10. | 0900 | 25 (22–25)°C | Clear (0%) | 9 (3–8) kts ENE | 14 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 11. | 1000 | 28 (24–28)°C | Clear (0%) | 9 (4–8) kts ENE | 16 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 12. | 1100 | 30 (27–31)°C | Clear (0%) | 9 (4–8) kts ENE | 16 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 13. | 1200 | 33 (29–33)°C | Clear (0%) | 10 (4–8) kts ENE | 16 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 14. | 1300 | 35 (31–34)°C | Clear (0%) | 10 (4–8) kts ENE | 16 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 35 (31–35)°C | Clear (0%) | 10 (3–8) kts ENE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 16. | 1500 | 35 (30–34)°C | Clear (0%) | 9 (3–7) kts NE | 14 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 17. | 1600 | 34 (29–34)°C | Clear (0%) | 8 (2–7) kts NE | 14 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 18. | 1700 | 33 (28–32)°C | Clear (0%) | 8 (2–6) kts NE | 12 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 19. | 1800 | 30 (26–29)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (3–5) kts NNE | 12 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 20. | 1900 | 28 (24–26)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (3–5) kts NNE | 12 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 21. | 2000 | 27 (23–25)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (2–5) kts NNE | 12 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 22. | 2100 | 26 (22–24)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (2–5) kts NE | 11 kts | 1013 | · - No data | storm 4% · gust 11 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 23. | 2200 | 25 (21–23)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (3–5) kts NE | 10 kts | 1014 | · - No data | storm 5% · gust 10 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 24. | 2300 | 24 (20–22)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (2–5) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1014 | · - No data | storm 4% · gust 9 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
Confidence: 86% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 19% of readings interpolated · first light 0603L · last light 1826L · Moon 40 % illuminated, rises 12:04, sets 23:58.
Tue 17 Nov 26
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 23 (19–22)°C | Clear (0%) | 5 (2–5) kts ENE | 7 kts | 1014 | · - No data | storm 4% · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 21 (spread 21–22)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (spread 5–6) kts ENE | 7 kts | 1013 | · - No data | storm 5% · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 21 (spread 20–21)°C | Clear (0%) | 5 (spread 4–6) kts ENE | 7 kts | 1013 | · - No data | storm 4% · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 20 (spread 19–21)°C | Clear (0%) | 5 (spread 4–7) kts ENE | 7 kts | 1013 | · - No data | storm 4% · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk |
| 5. | 0400 | 20 (spread 19–20)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (spread 4–7) kts ENE | 7 kts | 1013 | · - No data | storm 5% · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk |
| 6. | 0500 | 19 (spread 18–20)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (spread 4–7) kts ENE | 8 kts | 1013 | · - No data | storm 4% · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 19 (spread 18–19)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (spread 5–8) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1013 | · - No data | storm 4% · gust 9 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 19 (spread 18–20)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (spread 5–8) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1013 | · - No data | storm 5% · gust 9 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 21 (spread 20–22)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (spread 5–8) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1013 | · - No data | storm 4% · gust 10 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 10. | 0900 | 24 (spread 23–26)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (spread 6–8) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1014 | · - No data | storm 4% · gust 11 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 11. | 1000 | 27 (spread 26–29)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (spread 6–8) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1014 | · - No data | storm 5% · gust 11 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 12. | 1100 | 30 (spread 28–31)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (spread 6–8) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 13. | 1200 | 33 (spread 32–34)°C | Clear (0%) | 8 (spread 8–9) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 14. | 1300 | 35 (spread 34–35)°C | Clear (0%) | 8 (spread 7–9) kts ENE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 15. | 1400 | 35 (spread 34–36)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (spread 7–8) kts ENE | 13 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 16. | 1500 | 34 (spread 33–35)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (spread 6–8) kts ENE | 13 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 17. | 1600 | 33 (spread 32–35)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts NE | 12 kts | 1012 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 18. | 1700 | 32 (spread 31–33)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (spread 4–7) kts NNE | 12 kts | 1012 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 19. | 1800 | 29 (spread 28–30)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts NNE | 12 kts | 1012 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · gust spread +8 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 27 (spread 27–28)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (spread 3–5) kts N | 12 kts | 1012 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · gust spread +8 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 26 (spread 26–27)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts NNE | 11 kts | 1012 | E - Poor | gust spread +7 kt · visibility not forecast
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 22. | 2100 | 25°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (spread 3–5) kts NNE | 10 kts | 1012 | · - No data | storm 4% · gust 10 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 23. | 2200 | 24 (spread 24–25)°C | Clear (0%) | 5 (spread 4–6) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1013 | · - No data | storm 5% · gust 9 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 24. | 2300 | 23 (spread 23–24)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (spread 5–6) kts ENE | 8 kts | 1012 | · - No data | storm 4% · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 79% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 26% of readings interpolated · first light 0604L · last light 1826L · Moon 50 % illuminated, rises 12:44.
Wed 18 Nov 26
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 22 (spread 22–23)°C | Clear (0%) | 5 (spread 4–6) kts ENE | 8 kts | 1012 | · - No data | storm 4% · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 21 (spread 21–23)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (spread 4–7) kts ENE | 8 kts | 1012 | · - No data | storm 5% · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 21 (spread 20–21)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1012 | · - No data | storm 4% · gust 9 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 4. | 0300 | 20 (spread 19–22)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts ENE | 8 kts | 1012 | · - No data | storm 4% · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk |
| 5. | 0400 | 20 (spread 18–21)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts ENE | 8 kts | 1012 | · - No data | storm 5% · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk |
| 6. | 0500 | 19 (spread 18–21)°C | Clear (1%) | 6 (spread 4–7) kts ENE | 7 kts | 1012 | · - No data | storm 4% · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 19 (spread 17–20)°C | Clear (1%) | 6 (spread 4–8) kts E | 8 kts | 1012 | · - No data | storm 4% · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 19 (spread 18–20)°C | Clear (1%) | 6 (spread 5–8) kts E | 8 kts | 1012 | · - No data | storm 5% · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 21 (spread 20–22)°C | Clear (1%) | 6 (spread 4–8) kts E | 9 kts | 1013 | · - No data | storm 4% · gust 9 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 10. | 0900 | 24 (spread 23–25)°C | Clear (2%) | 6 (spread 4–8) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1014 | · - No data | storm 4% · gust 9 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 11. | 1000 | 27 (spread 26–29)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (spread 4–8) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1014 | · - No data | storm 5% · gust 10 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 12. | 1100 | 30 (spread 29–31)°C | Clear (3%) | 6 (spread 5–8) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1014 | · - No data | storm 4% · gust 11 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 13. | 1200 | 33 (spread 32–33)°C | Clear (3%) | 8 (spread 7–9) kts NE | 11 kts | 1014 | · - No data | storm 4% · gust 11 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 14. | 1300 | 35 (spread 34–35)°C | Clear (2%) | 8 (spread 6–9) kts NE | 12 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 15. | 1400 | 35 (spread 34–36)°C | Clear (4%) | 8 (spread 6–9) kts NE | 13 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 16. | 1500 | 34 (spread 34–35)°C | Clear (3%) | 7 (spread 6–7) kts NE | 13 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 17. | 1600 | 34 (spread 33–35)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (spread 6–7) kts NNE | 12 kts | 1012 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 18. | 1700 | 32 (spread 31–33)°C | Clear (4%) | 6 (spread 6–7) kts NNE | 12 kts | 1012 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 19. | 1800 | 29 (spread 29–30)°C | Clear (5%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts NNE | 12 kts | 1012 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 28 (spread 27–28)°C | Clear (6%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts N | 12 kts | 1012 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 27 (spread 26–27)°C | Clear (11%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts NNE | 13 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust spread +8 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 26 (spread 25–26)°C | Mostly clear (16%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts NE | 12 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 25 (spread 24–25)°C | Mostly clear (21%) | 5 kts ENE | 12 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · gust spread +6 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 24 (spread 23–24)°C | Mostly clear (25%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
Confidence: 78% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 26% of readings interpolated · first light 0604L · last light 1826L · Moon 60 % illuminated, rises 13:22, sets 00:46.
Thu 19 Nov 26
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 22 (spread 22–23)°C | Mostly clear (28%) | 5 (spread 4–6) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 2. | 0100 | 21 (spread 21–22)°C | Mostly clear (30%) | 6 (spread 4–7) kts ENE | 8 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 5%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 21 (spread 20–22)°C | Mostly clear (26%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts ENE | 8 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 20 (spread 20–21)°C | Mostly clear (21%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 5. | 0400 | 20 (spread 19–21)°C | Mostly clear (15%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts ENE | 8 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 5%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 6. | 0500 | 19 (spread 18–20)°C | Clear (11%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 19 (spread 18–19)°C | Clear (8%) | 7 (spread 6–7) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 19 (spread 18–20)°C | Clear (5%) | 7 kts ENE | 11 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 21 (spread 20–22)°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 7 (spread 7–8) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 10. | 0900 | 25 (spread 23–26)°C | Mostly clear (19%) | 8 kts ENE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 11. | 1000 | 28 (spread 26–30)°C | Mostly clear (26%) | 8 (spread 8–9) kts ENE | 13 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 12. | 1100 | 30 (spread 29–32)°C | Partly cloudy (38%) | 8 (spread 8–9) kts ENE | 13 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 13. | 1200 | 33 (spread 33–34)°C | Partly cloudy (53%) | 10 (spread 9–11) kts ENE | 13 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | cloud 53% · gust 13 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 14. | 1300 | 35 (spread 34–36)°C | Cloudy (60%) | 9 (spread 9–10) kts ENE | 14 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | cloud 60% · gust 14 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 35 (spread 34–36)°C | Cloudy (68%) | 9 (spread 9–10) kts ENE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | cloud 68% · gust 15 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 16. | 1500 | 35 (spread 34–36)°C | Cloudy (73%) | 9 (spread 8–10) kts NE | 15 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 73%
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 17. | 1600 | 34 (spread 33–35)°C | Cloudy (77%) | 8 (spread 7–10) kts NE | 14 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 77%
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 18. | 1700 | 32 (spread 32–33)°C | Cloudy (89%) | 8 (spread 7–10) kts NE | 14 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 89%
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 19. | 1800 | 30 (spread 29–30)°C | Overcast (92%) | 6 (spread 5–8) kts NNE | 16 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 92% · gust spread +9 kt
| cloud cover, wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 28 (spread 27–28)°C | Overcast (94%) | 6 (spread 5–8) kts NNE | 16 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 94% · gust spread +10 kt
| cloud cover, wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 26 (spread 26–27)°C | Overcast (93%) | 6 (spread 5–8) kts NNE | 16 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 93% · gust spread +10 kt
| cloud cover, wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 26 (spread 25–26)°C | Cloudy (78%) | 7 (spread 5–8) kts NE | 15 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 78%
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 25 (spread 24–26)°C | Cloudy (81%) | 7 (spread 5–8) kts NE | 14 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 81%
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 24 (spread 24–25)°C | Cloudy (74%) | 8 (spread 7–8) kts ENE | 15 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 74%
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 77% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 21% of readings interpolated · first light 0604L · last light 1826L · Moon 69 % illuminated, rises 14:00, sets 01:33.
Fri 20 Nov 26
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 23 (spread 22–24)°C | Cloudy (77%) | 6 (spread 6–7) kts ENE | 14 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 77%
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 22 (spread 22–23)°C | Cloudy (73%) | 6 (spread 6–7) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 73%
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 3. | 0200 | 22°C | Partly cloudy (57%) | 7 kts ENE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | cloud 57% · gust 13 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 4. | 0300 | 21°C | Partly cloudy (47%) | 7 kts ENE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 5. | 0400 | 20°C | Partly cloudy (36%) | 7 kts ENE | 14 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 6. | 0500 | 20°C | Mostly clear (27%) | 7 kts ENE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 20°C | Mostly clear (21%) | 8 kts ENE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 20°C | Mostly clear (16%) | 8 kts ENE | 16 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 22°C | Mostly clear (14%) | 9 kts ENE | 16 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 10. | 0900 | 25°C | Mostly clear (14%) | 9 kts ENE | 17 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 11. | 1000 | 27°C | Mostly clear (14%) | 9 kts ENE | 17 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 12. | 1100 | 30°C | Mostly clear (15%) | 9 kts ENE | 17 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 13. | 1200 | 33°C | Mostly clear (16%) | 11 kts ENE | 17 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 14. | 1300 | 35°C | Mostly clear (16%) | 11 kts ENE | 17 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 35°C | Mostly clear (14%) | 10 kts ENE | 17 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 16. | 1500 | 34°C | Clear (12%) | 10 kts NE | 16 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 17. | 1600 | 34°C | Clear (11%) | 10 kts NE | 17 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 18. | 1700 | 32°C | Clear (11%) | 9 kts NNE | 17 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 19. | 1800 | 29°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 7 kts NNE | 18 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt · gust spread +11 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 28°C | Mostly clear (14%) | 7 kts NNE | 19 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt · gust spread +12 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 27°C | Mostly clear (15%) | 7 kts NNE | 19 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt · gust spread +12 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 26°C | Mostly clear (16%) | 7 kts NNE | 19 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt · gust spread +11 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 25°C | Mostly clear (17%) | 7 kts NE | 18 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt · gust spread +11 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 24°C | Mostly clear (18%) | 7 kts NE | 16 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt · gust spread +9 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 69% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 1% of readings interpolated · first light 0605L · last light 1826L · Moon 79 % illuminated, rises 14:39, sets 02:21.
Sat 21 Nov 26
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 23°C | Mostly clear (18%) | 6 kts NE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 23°C | Mostly clear (18%) | 6 kts NE | 14 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 22°C | Mostly clear (16%) | 7 kts NE | 14 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 22°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 7 kts NE | 14 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 5. | 0400 | 21°C | Clear (10%) | 7 kts NE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 6. | 0500 | 21°C | Clear (9%) | 8 kts NE | 16 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 21°C | Clear (10%) | 9 kts NE | 17 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 21°C | Clear (11%) | 9 kts NE | 17 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 23°C | Clear (11%) | 9 kts ENE | 18 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 10. | 0900 | 25°C | Clear (11%) | 10 kts ENE | 18 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 11. | 1000 | 28°C | Clear (11%) | 10 kts ENE | 18 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 12. | 1100 | 30°C | Clear (11%) | 10 kts ENE | 18 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 13. | 1200 | 33°C | Clear (12%) | 12 kts ENE | 18 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt
| gusts, strong wind, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 14. | 1300 | 35°C | Clear (12%) | 12 kts ENE | 18 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt
| gusts, strong wind, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 35°C | Clear (12%) | 12 kts NE | 18 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt
| gusts, strong wind, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 16. | 1500 | 34°C | Clear (12%) | 11 kts NE | 18 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 17. | 1600 | 34°C | Clear (12%) | 11 kts NE | 19 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 18. | 1700 | 32°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 10 kts NE | 19 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 19. | 1800 | 29°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 8 kts NNE | 19 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt · gust spread +11 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 28°C | Mostly clear (14%) | 8 kts NNE | 19 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt · gust spread +11 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 27°C | Mostly clear (15%) | 7 kts NNE | 18 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt · gust spread +11 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 26°C | Mostly clear (17%) | 7 kts NNE | 16 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt · gust spread +9 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 25°C | Mostly clear (17%) | 7 kts NE | 14 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 24°C | Mostly clear (17%) | 7 kts NE | 13 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
Confidence: 69% — data for 24 of 24 hours · first light 0605L · last light 1826L · Moon 87 % illuminated, rises 15:21, sets 03:11.
Sun 22 Nov 26
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 23°C | Mostly clear (15%) | 6 kts NE | 12 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 2. | 0100 | 22°C | Mostly clear (15%) | 6 kts NE | 11 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 3. | 0200 | 22°C | Mostly clear (15%) | 6 kts ENE | 11 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 4. | 0300 | 21°C | Mostly clear (17%) | 7 kts ENE | 11 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 5. | 0400 | 21°C | Mostly clear (18%) | 7 kts ENE | 12 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 6. | 0500 | 20°C | Mostly clear (18%) | 7 kts ENE | 13 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 20°C | Mostly clear (19%) | 8 kts ENE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 20°C | Mostly clear (20%) | 8 kts ENE | 16 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 22°C | Mostly clear (21%) | 9 kts ENE | 16 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 10. | 0900 | 25°C | Mostly clear (23%) | 9 kts ENE | 16 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 11. | 1000 | 27°C | Mostly clear (25%) | 9 kts ENE | 17 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 12. | 1100 | 30°C | Mostly clear (26%) | 9 kts NE | 17 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 13. | 1200 | 33°C | Mostly clear (28%) | 11 kts NE | 17 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 14. | 1300 | 35°C | Mostly clear (28%) | 11 kts NE | 16 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 35°C | Mostly clear (25%) | 11 kts NE | 16 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 16. | 1500 | 35°C | Mostly clear (21%) | 10 kts NE | 16 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 17. | 1600 | 34°C | Mostly clear (17%) | 10 kts NE | 16 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 18. | 1700 | 32°C | Mostly clear (16%) | 9 kts NNE | 16 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 19. | 1800 | 30°C | Mostly clear (16%) | 7 kts NNE | 17 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +10 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 28°C | Mostly clear (16%) | 7 kts NNE | 17 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +10 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 27°C | Mostly clear (14%) | 7 kts NNE | 16 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt · gust spread +10 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 26°C | Clear (12%) | 7 kts NE | 15 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 25°C | Clear (11%) | 7 kts NE | 14 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 24°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 7 kts NE | 12 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
Confidence: 69% — data for 24 of 24 hours · first light 0606L · last light 1826L · Moon 93 % illuminated, rises 16:07, sets 04:05.
Mon 23 Nov 26
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 24°C | Mostly clear (15%) | 6 kts NE | 11 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 2. | 0100 | 23°C | Mostly clear (17%) | 6 kts NE | 12 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 3. | 0200 | 22°C | Mostly clear (17%) | 7 kts NE | 12 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 4. | 0300 | 22°C | Mostly clear (17%) | 7 kts ENE | 10 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 5. | 0400 | 21°C | Mostly clear (16%) | 7 kts ENE | 10 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 6. | 0500 | 21°C | Mostly clear (17%) | 7 kts ENE | 11 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 21°C | Mostly clear (18%) | 8 kts ENE | 12 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 21°C | Mostly clear (19%) | 8 kts ENE | 13 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 23°C | Mostly clear (20%) | 8 kts ENE | 14 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 10. | 0900 | 25°C | Mostly clear (22%) | 9 kts ENE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 11. | 1000 | 28°C | Mostly clear (23%) | 9 kts ENE | 16 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 12. | 1100 | 30°C | Mostly clear (23%) | 9 kts ENE | 17 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 13. | 1200 | 34°C | Mostly clear (23%) | 11 kts ENE | 17 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 14. | 1300 | 35°C | Mostly clear (23%) | 11 kts ENE | 17 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 35°C | Mostly clear (23%) | 10 kts ENE | 17 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 16. | 1500 | 35°C | Mostly clear (23%) | 10 kts NE | 17 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 17. | 1600 | 34°C | Mostly clear (22%) | 10 kts NE | 17 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 18. | 1700 | 32°C | Mostly clear (20%) | 10 kts NNE | 17 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 19. | 1800 | 30°C | Mostly clear (17%) | 8 kts NNE | 17 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt · gust spread +10 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 28°C | Mostly clear (15%) | 8 kts NNE | 17 kts | 1012 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt · gust spread +10 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 27°C | Mostly clear (15%) | 7 kts NNE | 17 kts | 1012 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +9 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 27°C | Mostly clear (17%) | 7 kts NNE | 16 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 26°C | Mostly clear (19%) | 7 kts NE | 15 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 25°C | Mostly clear (22%) | 7 kts NE | 13 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
Confidence: 69% — data for 24 of 24 hours · first light 0606L · last light 1826L · Moon 98 % illuminated, rises 16:59, sets 05:03.
TAF
No current TAF — last issued 6 Nov 17:00Z, expired 8 Nov 00:00Z
Imagery
Source panel
| Source | Accuracy | Skill n | Temp °C | Wind kt | Visibility | Storm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) |
| ECMWF AIFS | ≈ 1.1 | 447 | 21–22 | 3–5 | — | 0 % |
| ECMWF | ▲ 1.1 | 2729 | 22–23 | 2–4 | — | 0 % |
| Open-Meteo Ensemble (ECMWF IFS + GEFS) | ≈ 1.0 | 2500 | 21–23 | 2–3 | — | 0 % |
| Canada GEM | ≈ 1.0 | 2531 | 22–25 | 5–6 | — | 0 % |
| NOAA GFS | ≈ 1.0 | 4582 | 21–23 | 2–5 | 10+ km | 0 % |
| DWD ICON | ▲ 1.1 | 4154 | 22–25 | 1–3 | — | 0 % |
| JMA GSM | ▽ 0.9 | 2531 | 18–23 | 0–1 | — | 0 % |
| MetCheck | ▽ 0.8 | 2901 | 21–23 | 1–2 | — | — |
| Météo-France | ▲ 1.2 | 3159 | 21–24 | 1–2 | — | 0 % |
| Met.no (Yr) | ≈ 1.1 | 1933 | 23–24 | 3–5 | — | 0 % |
| Open-Meteo | ▲ 1.1 | 5609 | 23–25 | 2–4 | 10+ km | 0 % |
| OpenWeather | ≈ 1.1 | 888 | 23–24 | 2 | 10+ km | 0 % |
| Tomorrow.io | ▲ 1.1 | 2533 | 22–25 | 2–6 | 10+ km | 0 % |
| UK Met Office | ▲ 1.1 | 2394 | 19–21 | 3–4 | 10+ km | 0 % |
| Visual Crossing | ▲ 1.1 | 4849 | 22–24 | 3–4 | 10+ km | 0 % |
| wttr.in | ≈ 0.9 | 489 | 22–25 | 3–4 | 9–10+ km | 0 % |
Each source's own raw values, min–max over the next 6 hours from the issue hour (before any weighting or bias correction). — means the source does not publish that metric in the window. Wide gaps between rows are real disagreement; the forecast above weights sources by measured skill.
Reading this report
Grades: each hour carries one grade, set by its WORST factor. The bands below are the thresholds in force for this report (Settings); a value in a band earns that grade, and "-" means the factor never produces that grade. Cloud is graded on the worse of cover and ceiling. The Driver column names the limiting factor with its value; open it in the web report for the boundary and sources.
| Grade | Cloud cover | Cloud ceiling | Visibility | Wind | Gust | Rain chance | Thunderstorm probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) |
| A Excellent | ≤ 17.1% | ≥ 30000 ft | ≥ 8000 m | < 3 kt | < 3 kt | < 5% | 0% |
| B Good | 17.1–34.3% | 26000–30000 ft | 6666.7–8000 m | 3–6 kt | 3–6 kt | 5–10% | - |
| C Fair | 34.3–42.9% | 24000–26000 ft | 5333.3–6666.7 m | 6–9 kt | 6–9 kt | 10–15% | - |
| D Marginal | 42.9–51.4% | 22000–24000 ft | 4000–5333.3 m | 9–12 kt | 9–12 kt | 15–20% | >0–15% |
| E Poor | 51.4–60% | 16000–22000 ft | 2666.7–4000 m | 12–15 kt | 12–15 kt | 20–25% | 15–30% |
| F Very Poor | 60–68.6% | 10000–16000 ft | 1333.3–2666.7 m | 15–18 kt | 15–18 kt | 25–30% | 30–60% |
| G Unacceptable | > 68.6% | < 10000 ft | < 1333.3 m | ≥ 18 kt | ≥ 18 kt | ≥ 30% | > 60% |
Flight windows: a window is at least 2 consecutive hours graded Marginal or better; an hour with insufficient data never counts toward one. ☾ marks a window outside first-to-last light.
Time: hours are local time (WAT, UTC+1) unless suffixed Z, which is UTC (TAF, METAR and issue times). Local midnight is labelled 0001.
Units: temperature °C · wind and gusts knots · visibility metres (km in text) · cloud ceiling feet · cloud cover % · rain chance and thunderstorm probability % · QNH hPa (altimeter setting at the field) · CAPE J/kg. A figure like "28 (26–30)°C" gives the p10–p90 range; "spread" marks disagreement between sources.
Symbols: ▲ better than the pool · ▽ worse (only when the 95% interval excludes the pool) · ≈ not distinguishable from the pool · unmarked = unproven (accuracy is measured against METAR and SYNOP observations). ⚠ on a remark means a low-confidence hour; a ⚠ paragraph on the first page is a convective-warning or data-age advisory. ⚡ is lightning observed by satellite near the field (©EUMETSAT).
Hourly glyphs: the wind arrow points the way the air moves (a north wind is ↓, an east wind ←); cloud cover shows as ☀ ◔ ◑ ◕ ☁ (clear, few, scattered, broken, overcast); a shaded hour label is wholly before first light or after last light.
Terms: "No data" - no source forecast the hour, or a core group (cloud, visibility, wind) is missing and the hour could still be flyable; missing data is never given a good grade. "Low-confidence" - few or weak sources behind the load-bearing metrics; treat the grade as indicative. "Insufficient data" - too little to grade at all. "Estimated" (est.) - the value is derived, not reported by a source (dust visibility, cloud base, gusts); it is declared where used and weighted at half. "Derived" - an hour interpolated from a coarser (3-hourly or daily) source, weighted at half and never used to score accuracy.
Data provenance
| Source | Fetched (Z) | Age | Skill n | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) |
| ECMWF AIFS | 10 Nov 00:18Z | 5 min | 447 | ≈ 1.1 |
| Aviation Weather Center (aviationweather.gov) | 10 Nov 00:19Z | 4 min | 248 | ≈ 1.0 |
| Copernicus CAMS (via Open-Meteo) | 10 Nov 00:19Z | 4 min | - | - |
| ECMWF | 10 Nov 00:20Z | 3 min | 2729 | ▲ 1.1 |
| Open-Meteo Ensemble (ECMWF IFS + GEFS) | 10 Nov 00:20Z | 3 min | 2500 | ≈ 1.0 |
| Foreca | 10 Nov 00:20Z | 3 min | 425 | ▲ 1.1 |
| Canada GEM | 10 Nov 00:19Z | 4 min | 2531 | ≈ 1.0 |
| NOAA GFS | 10 Nov 00:20Z | 3 min | 4582 | ≈ 1.0 |
| DWD ICON | 10 Nov 00:18Z | 5 min | 4154 | ▲ 1.1 |
| JMA GSM | 10 Nov 00:18Z | 4 min | 2531 | ▽ 0.9 |
| MetCheck | 10 Nov 00:18Z | 5 min | 2901 | ▽ 0.8 |
| Météo-France | 10 Nov 00:20Z | 3 min | 3159 | ▲ 1.2 |
| Met.no (Yr) | 10 Nov 00:19Z | 4 min | 1933 | ≈ 1.1 |
| Open-Meteo | 10 Nov 00:20Z | 3 min | 5609 | ▲ 1.1 |
| OpenWeather | 10 Nov 00:18Z | 5 min | 888 | ≈ 1.1 |
| Tomorrow.io | 10 Nov 00:19Z | 4 min | 2533 | ▲ 1.1 |
| UK Met Office | 10 Nov 00:20Z | 3 min | 2394 | ▲ 1.1 |
| Visual Crossing | 10 Nov 00:20Z | 3 min | 4849 | ▲ 1.1 |
| wttr.in | 10 Nov 00:20Z | 3 min | 489 | ≈ 0.9 |
Corrections applied (detailed under Learned corrections on the first page): skill weighting, bias correction, hour-of-day bias, cloud-base estimate, probability calibration, fog risk, climatology bounds, skill blend.
How accurate have we been
Measured against observations (METAR/SYNOP), kaduna only. Verification table computed 2026-11-09. Mean absolute error (MAE): lower is better; "beats persistence" compares the best source with "it will stay as it is now" on the same hours.
| Metric | Best source | Best MAE | Typical MAE | Persistence MAE | Beats persistence by | Pairs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) |
| Temperature (°C) | foreca | 1.0 | 1.5 | 5.4 | 85 % | 174 |
| Dew point (°C) | accuweather | 0.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 52 % | 28 |
| Wind speed (kt) | ukmo | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 15 % | 704 |
| Visibility (m) | aviationweather | 864 | 1255 | 1235 | 4 % | 93 |
| Cloud cover (%) | accuweather | 21 | 51 | 10 | - | 28 |
Learned bias (forecast minus observed; positive = sources run high), mean over scored sources, by local time of day. These are corrected for before sources are averaged.
| Metric | Overall | Night | Morning | Afternoon | Evening | Pairs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) |
| Temperature (°C) | -0.7 | +0.2 | -0.2 | -1.3 | -0.5 | 15039 |
| Dew point (°C) | -2.4 | -1.0 | -2.2 | -2.7 | -2.7 | 14126 |
| Wind speed (kt) | -2.3 | -0.7 | -1.5 | -3.4 | -2.0 | 15135 |
Not yet available: Scores are decayed over the verification window (half-life 14 days); separate last-7-day and last-30-day windows are not stored. Bias is the current learned value; the history needed for a trend over time is not stored. Flight-window hit / bust / miss is not yet recorded.