Kaduna — 14-Day Forecast
DNKA · issued 10 Nov 26 03:23Z
Sources used (7): Aviation Weather Center (aviationweather.gov)≈ 1.0 Foreca▲ 1.1 Met.no (Yr)≈ 1.1 Open-Meteo▲ 1.1 OpenWeather≈ 1.1 Tomorrow.io▲ 1.1 Visual Crossing▲ 1.1
▲ better than the pool · ▽ worse (only when the 95% interval excludes the pool) · ≈ not distinguishable from the pool · unmarked = unproven (accuracy is measured against METAR and SYNOP observations)
Best window (highest confidence, then grade, then length): Wed 11 Nov 26 1900–2100L (Marginal, 3 h) ☾, confidence 77%.
Learned corrections (METAR-verified): skill weighting — pooled all-field scores for 206; bias corrections — jma wind +3.9 kt, metcheck wind +3.7 kt, meteoblue wind +3.3 kt, aifs wind +3.1 kt, meteoblue QNH −3.0 hPa, Open-Meteo dewpoint +3.0 °C (+67 more); hour-of-day bias (local time, shrunk toward the all-hours bias) — jma afternoon wind +5.0 kt, metcheck afternoon wind +4.7 kt, meteoblue afternoon wind +4.0 kt, aifs afternoon wind +3.8 kt, Open-Meteo afternoon wind +3.5 kt, meteoblue evening wind +3.4 kt (+284 more); cloud base estimated as 410 ft per °C of dewpoint spread for sources that report no ceiling (≥60% cloud cover; flagged estimated, weighted ×0.5); probability calibration — rain chance: meteoblue, Open-Meteo, Foreca, metcheck, OpenWeather, Visual Crossing, Tomorrow.io, wttrin, ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo, gem, ecmwfens; storm: Open-Meteo, Met.no (Yr), Foreca, OpenWeather, Visual Crossing, Tomorrow.io, wttrin, ecmwf, gfs, icon, meteofrance, Aviation Weather Center (aviationweather.gov), ukmo, jma, gem, ecmwfens, aifs (each source's stated probability mapped to its verified frequency by an isotonic fit on ≥200 pairs, proven on the holdout); fog risk (n=1096): observed fog frequency by dewpoint spread, wind, local hour and season for the forecast conditions (shown from 10 %), proven on the holdout; plausibility bounds from ERA5 climatology 2016-2025 (mean ± 5 sd; screening only, not observed truth); skill blend 1 auto-tuned over 9969 holdout pairs (consensus beat the best single source, icon, by 15%); correction gates (newest-7-day holdout; pooled skill is always on) — regional skill: off this week (did not improve holdout); place skill: off this week (did not improve holdout); lead-time skill: off this week (did not improve holdout); small-sample skill shrinkage: off this week (did not improve holdout); bias correction: on (improved holdout by 27.0%); place bias: on (improved holdout by 10.8%); hour-of-day bias: on (improved holdout by 6.4%); QNH bias: on (improved holdout by 55.8%); gust estimates: off this week (did not improve holdout); cloud-base coefficient: off this week (insufficient holdout: 84 of 200 items); recent-form skill: off this week (did not improve holdout); probability calibration: on (improved holdout by 40.5%); nowcast anchor horizon: off this week (did not improve holdout); dust-visibility estimate: off this week (did not improve holdout); fog risk: on (improved holdout by 2.7%).
Outlook
| Day | Date | Outlook | Temp | Max wind | Flight windows | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) |
| Tue | 10 Nov 26 | Unacceptable | 22–36°C | 12 kts ENE, g 19 | 0100–0300L (Marginal, 3 h) ☾ | 74% | 8% interpolated |
| Wed | 11 Nov 26 | Unacceptable | 22–35°C | 12 kts ENE, g 20 | 1900–2100L (Marginal, 3 h) ☾ | 77% | 10% interpolated |
| Thu | 12 Nov 26 | Marginal | 20–35°C | 9 kts NNE, g 14 | 0700–1000L (Marginal, 4 h); 1800–2300L (Marginal, 6 h) ☾ | 75% | 14% interpolated |
| Fri | 13 Nov 26 | Marginal | 19–34°C | 8 kts NNE, g 13 | 0001–0300L (Marginal, 4 h) ☾; 1300–2000L (Marginal, 8 h) ☾ | 73% | 21% interpolated |
| Sat | 14 Nov 26 | Poor | 18–33°C | 9 kts ENE, g 16 | 0400–0500L (Marginal, 2 h) ☾ | 73% | 23% interpolated |
| Sun | 15 Nov 26 | Poor | 19–34°C | 11 kts ENE, g 18 | none | 71% | 18% interpolated |
| Mon | 16 Nov 26 | Poor | 19–35°C | 11 kts ENE, g 18 | none | 71% | 16% interpolated |
| Tue | 17 Nov 26 | Poor | 19–35°C | 9 kts ENE, g 19 | none | 70% | 16% interpolated |
| Wed | 18 Nov 26 | Poor | 19–35°C | 9 kts NE, g 18 | 2200–2300L (Marginal, 2 h) ☾ | 69% | 16% interpolated |
| Thu | 19 Nov 26 | Unacceptable | 19–35°C | 10 kts ENE, g 17 | 0001–0700L (Marginal, 8 h) ☾ | 69% | 8% interpolated |
| Fri | 20 Nov 26 | Very Poor | 20–35°C | 11 kts ENE, g 19 | none | 69% | |
| Sat | 21 Nov 26 | Unacceptable | 21–35°C | 12 kts ENE, g 19 | none | 69% | |
| Sun | 22 Nov 26 | Very Poor | 20–35°C | 11 kts NE, g 17 | 0100–0300L (Marginal, 3 h) ☾ | 69% | |
| Mon | 23 Nov 26 | Very Poor | 21–35°C | 11 kts ENE, g 17 | 0300–0500L (Marginal, 3 h) ☾ | 69% |
Today — Tue 10 Nov 26
| 00–06L | 06–12L | 12–18L | 18–24L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind | D | D | G | D |
| Visibility | A | A | A | A |
| Cloud / ceiling | G | G | G | G |
| Precipitation | A | A | A | A |
| Thunderstorm | D | D | D | E |
| Fog | A | A | · | · |
A Excellent · B Good · C Fair · D Marginal (flyable) · E Poor · F Very Poor · G Unacceptable · (worst condition in each period)
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 24°C | Clear (0%) | 4 kts ESE | 7 kts | 1018 | · - No data | storm 0% · visibility not forecast
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 24°C | Clear (1%) | 5 kts E | 11 kts | 1018 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · CAPE 1160 J/kg
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, convective energy, gusts, wind shear |
| 3. | 0200 | 24°C | Clear (1%) | 4 kts ESE | 8 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · CAPE 1260 J/kg
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 4. | 0300 | 23°C | Clear (0%) | 3 kts E | 5 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · CAPE 1080 J/kg
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 5. | 0400 | 24 (spread 23–24)°C | Cloudy (82%) | 3 (spread 3–4) kts E | 5 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 82%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 6. | 0500 | 23 (spread 22–23)°C | Cloudy (62%) | 3 (spread 3–4) kts ESE | 4 kts | 1017 | F - Very Poor | cloud 62%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 22 (spread 22–23)°C | Cloudy (88%) | 4 kts ESE | 5 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 88%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 22 (spread 22–23)°C | Cloudy (82%) | 4 kts E | 4 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 82%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 25 (spread 24–25)°C | Cloudy (70%) | 4 kts ENE | 7 kts | 1019 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 70%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 10. | 0900 | 27 (spread 27–28)°C | Cloudy (62%) | 3 (spread 3–4) kts NE | 8 kts | 1020 | F - Very Poor | cloud 62%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 11. | 1000 | 30°C | Cloudy (73%) | 4 (spread 3–7) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1020 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 73%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 12. | 1100 | 32°C | Cloudy (66%) | 6 (spread 5–9) kts E | 11 kts | 1020 | F - Very Poor | cloud 66%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 13. | 1200 | 35°C | Cloudy (85%) | 9 (spread 8–11) kts E | 14 kts | 1019 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 85%
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 14. | 1300 | 35 (spread 35–36)°C | Overcast (98%) | 11 (spread 10–12) kts E | 17 kts | 1018 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 98%
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 36 (spread 36–37)°C | Overcast (99%) | 11 (spread 11–12) kts ENE | 18 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 99% · gust 18 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 16. | 1500 | 36°C | Overcast (100%) | 12 (spread 12–13) kts ENE | 19 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 100% · gust 19 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, strong wind, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 17. | 1600 | 36°C | Overcast (98%) | 12 kts ENE | 18 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 98% · gust 18 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, strong wind, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 18. | 1700 | 35°C | Overcast (94%) | 10 (spread 9–11) kts ENE | 15 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 94%
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 19. | 1800 | 31 (spread 31–32)°C | Overcast (99%) | 7 (spread 6–7) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 99%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 20. | 1900 | 29 (spread 29–30)°C | Overcast (100%) | 6 (spread 6–7) kts NNE | 9 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 100%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 21. | 2000 | 28 (spread 28–29)°C | Overcast (99%) | 7 (spread 7–8) kts NE | 11 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 99%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 22. | 2100 | 27°C | Overcast (99%) | 6 (spread 6–7) kts SE | 11 kts | 1018 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 99%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 23. | 2200 | 26 (spread 25–26)°C | Overcast (99%) | 5 (spread 5–6) kts SW | 8 kts | 1018 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 99%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 25°C | Overcast (98%) | 5 (spread 5–6) kts SSW | 8 kts | 1019 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 98%
| cloud cover, convective energy, thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 74% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 8% of readings interpolated · first light 0601L · last light 1826L · Moon 2 % illuminated, rises 07:14, sets 18:56.
Tomorrow — Wed 11 Nov 26
| 00–06L | 06–12L | 12–18L | 18–24L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind | D | F | G | E |
| Visibility | A | A | A | A |
| Cloud / ceiling | G | G | E | G |
| Precipitation | A | A | A | A |
| Thunderstorm | E | E | D | D |
| Fog | · | · | · | · |
A Excellent · B Good · C Fair · D Marginal (flyable) · E Poor · F Very Poor · G Unacceptable · (worst condition in each period)
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 24 (spread 24–25)°C | Overcast (96%) | 5 (spread 4–5) kts SSW | 8 kts | 1019 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 96%
| cloud cover, convective energy, thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 23 (spread 23–25)°C | Overcast (96%) | 5 (spread 3–5) kts SSW | 7 kts | 1018 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 96%
| cloud cover, convective energy, thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 23 (spread 23–24)°C | Cloudy (89%) | 6 (spread 4–7) kts SSW | 10 kts | 1018 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 89%
| cloud cover, convective energy, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 4. | 0300 | 23 (spread 22–24)°C | Overcast (94%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts S | 10 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 94%
| cloud cover, convective energy, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 5. | 0400 | 23 (spread 22–23)°C | Overcast (96%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts SSW | 6 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 96%
| cloud cover, convective energy, thunderstorm risk |
| 6. | 0500 | 22 (spread 22–23)°C | Overcast (100%) | 3 kts SSW | 4 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 100%
| cloud cover, convective energy, thunderstorm risk |
| 7. | 0600 | 22 (spread 20–23)°C | Overcast (100%) | 3 (spread 2–4) kts N | 3 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 100%
| cloud cover, convective energy, thunderstorm risk |
| 8. | 0700 | 22 (spread 20–23)°C | Overcast (100%) | 3 (spread 3–4) kts NE | 4 kts | 1018 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 100%
| cloud cover, convective energy, thunderstorm risk |
| 9. | 0800 | 24°C | Overcast (91%) | 4 kts NNE | 7 kts | 1020 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 91%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 10. | 0900 | 26 (spread 26–27)°C | Cloudy (88%) | 5 (spread 4–6) kts NE | 10 kts | 1020 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 88%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, convective energy, gusts, wind shear |
| 11. | 1000 | 29 (spread 28–29)°C | Cloudy (70%) | 6 (spread 5–8) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1021 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 70%
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, convective energy, wind shear |
| 12. | 1100 | 31°C | Partly cloudy (34%) | 8 (spread 7–9) kts ENE | 16 kts | 1021 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 13. | 1200 | 34 (spread 33–34)°C | Mostly clear (14%) | 11 (spread 10–12) kts E | 19 kts | 1019 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 14. | 1300 | 35°C | Partly cloudy (34%) | 12 (spread 12–13) kts ENE | 19 kts | 1018 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt
| gusts, strong wind, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 15. | 1400 | 35°C | Mostly clear (29%) | 12 kts ENE | 20 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | gust 20 kt
| gusts, strong wind, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 16. | 1500 | 35 (spread 35–36)°C | Mostly clear (28%) | 11 (spread 9–12) kts ENE | 18 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 17. | 1600 | 35 (spread 34–35)°C | Partly cloudy (40%) | 12 (spread 11–12) kts NE | 17 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, strong wind, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 18. | 1700 | 34 (spread 33–34)°C | Partly cloudy (56%) | 11 (spread 10–12) kts NE | 17 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 19. | 1800 | 30 (spread 30–31)°C | Partly cloudy (55%) | 7 (spread 7–8) kts ENE | 13 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | cloud 55% · gust 13 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 20. | 1900 | 29 (spread 28–29)°C | Mostly clear (30%) | 7 kts NE | 10 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 21. | 2000 | 27 (spread 27–28)°C | Partly cloudy (33%) | 6 (spread 6–7) kts NE | 9 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 22. | 2100 | 26°C | Partly cloudy (50%) | 7 (spread 6–7) kts NE | 10 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · cloud 50%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 23. | 2200 | 25 (spread 25–26)°C | Cloudy (82%) | 7 (spread 7–8) kts NE | 10 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 82%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 24. | 2300 | 24 (spread 24–25)°C | Overcast (97%) | 7 (spread 6–7) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 97%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
Confidence: 77% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 10% of readings interpolated · first light 0602L · last light 1826L · Moon 5 % illuminated, rises 08:07, sets 19:46.
Extended Outlook
| Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | Mon | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind | E | E | F | G | G | G | G | G | G | G | G | G |
| Visibility | A | A | A | A | · | · | A | A | A | A | A | A |
| Cloud / ceiling | G | G | E | A | A | A | B | G | G | B | B | B |
| Precipitation | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A |
| Thunderstorm | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
| Fog | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A |
| Overall | G | G | F | G | G | G | G | G | G | G | G | G |
A Excellent · B Good · C Fair · D Marginal (flyable) · E Poor · F Very Poor · G Unacceptable · (worst condition in each period)
Thu 12 Nov 26
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 24 (spread 23–25)°C | Overcast (100%) | 5 (spread 5–6) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 100%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 2. | 0100 | 23 (spread 22–24)°C | Overcast (100%) | 6 (spread 5–6) kts E | 9 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 100%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 3. | 0200 | 23 (spread 21–24)°C | Overcast (99%) | 5 (spread 4–6) kts E | 8 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 99%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 22 (spread 21–23)°C | Overcast (100%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts E | 7 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 100%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 5. | 0400 | 21 (spread 21–22)°C | Overcast (100%) | 4 (spread 3–4) kts ESE | 5 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 100%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 6. | 0500 | 21°C | Overcast (98%) | 4 kts ENE | 5 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 98%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 20°C | Cloudy (88%) | 5 (spread 5–6) kts ENE | 6 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 88%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 20°C | Partly cloudy (50%) | 6 kts ENE | 8 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · cloud 50%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 22°C | Partly cloudy (41%) | 5 (spread 5–6) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1018 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 9 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 10. | 0900 | 26°C | Mostly clear (25%) | 5 (spread 4–5) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1019 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 9 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 11. | 1000 | 29 (spread 28–29)°C | Partly cloudy (35%) | 6 (spread 5–6) kts E | 11 kts | 1020 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 11 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 12. | 1100 | 30 (spread 30–31)°C | Clear (10%) | 7 (spread 6–7) kts E | 13 kts | 1019 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 13. | 1200 | 33 (spread 33–34)°C | Partly cloudy (37%) | 8 (spread 7–9) kts E | 14 kts | 1018 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 14. | 1300 | 34 (spread 34–35)°C | Cloudy (82%) | 7 (spread 6–8) kts E | 12 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 82%
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 35 (spread 34–36)°C | Cloudy (78%) | 7 (spread 6–7) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 78%
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 16. | 1500 | 35 (spread 34–35)°C | Partly cloudy (55%) | 7 (spread 7–8) kts NE | 11 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | cloud 55%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 17. | 1600 | 34°C | Mostly clear (20%) | 9 (spread 8–10) kts NNE | 13 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 18. | 1700 | 33°C | Mostly clear (31%) | 9 (spread 8–10) kts NNE | 12 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 19. | 1800 | 30°C | Partly cloudy (40%) | 5 (spread 3–8) kts NNE | 8 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 5%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 28 (spread 28–29)°C | Mostly clear (28%) | 4 (spread 3–7) kts NE | 6 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 5%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 27 (spread 27–28)°C | Mostly clear (21%) | 5 (spread 4–7) kts NNE | 6 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 26°C | Mostly clear (20%) | 5 (spread 4–7) kts NE | 6 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 25°C | Mostly clear (22%) | 6 kts NE | 8 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 23 (spread 23–24)°C | Mostly clear (19%) | 5 (spread 4–7) kts NE | 7 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 75% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 14% of readings interpolated · first light 0602L · last light 1826L · Moon 9 % illuminated, rises 08:59, sets 20:38.
Fri 13 Nov 26
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 22 (spread 22–23)°C | Mostly clear (19%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts NE | 7 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 22°C | Mostly clear (26%) | 4 kts ENE | 6 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 22°C | Partly cloudy (34%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts E | 7 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 21 (spread 20–21)°C | Partly cloudy (44%) | 5 (spread 3–6) kts E | 7 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · cloud 44%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 5. | 0400 | 20 (spread 20–21)°C | Cloudy (62%) | 4 (spread 3–6) kts E | 7 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | cloud 62%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 6. | 0500 | 20 (spread 19–20)°C | Partly cloudy (52%) | 4 (spread 2–5) kts E | 7 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | cloud 52%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 19°C | Cloudy (89%) | 5 (spread 3–6) kts E | 6 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 89%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 19°C | Cloudy (85%) | 5 (spread 3–6) kts E | 7 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 85%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 22 (spread 21–22)°C | Partly cloudy (49%) | 5 (spread 3–6) kts ENE | 8 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · cloud 49%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 10. | 0900 | 25 (spread 24–25)°C | Partly cloudy (56%) | 5 (spread 4–5) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1018 | E - Poor | cloud 56%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 11. | 1000 | 27 (spread 27–28)°C | Cloudy (61%) | 6 (spread 4–6) kts E | 12 kts | 1018 | F - Very Poor | cloud 61%
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 12. | 1100 | 29 (spread 29–30)°C | Cloudy (61%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts E | 12 kts | 1018 | F - Very Poor | cloud 61%
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 13. | 1200 | 33 (spread 32–33)°C | Partly cloudy (54%) | 7 (spread 6–8) kts E | 13 kts | 1018 | E - Poor | cloud 54% · gust 13 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 14. | 1300 | 34 (spread 33–35)°C | Partly cloudy (45%) | 6 (spread 5–6) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · cloud 45%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 34 (spread 33–35)°C | Partly cloudy (47%) | 6 kts NE | 11 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · cloud 47%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 16. | 1500 | 34 (spread 33–34)°C | Mostly clear (29%) | 7 kts NE | 11 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 17. | 1600 | 33 (spread 33–34)°C | Mostly clear (21%) | 8 (spread 7–9) kts NNE | 11 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 11 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 18. | 1700 | 32 (spread 31–32)°C | Clear (8%) | 8 (spread 7–9) kts NNE | 11 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 19. | 1800 | 29°C | Clear (6%) | 6 (spread 5–8) kts NNE | 11 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 20. | 1900 | 27 (spread 27–28)°C | Clear (8%) | 5 (spread 4–6) kts NNE | 9 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 9 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 21. | 2000 | 26°C | Clear (8%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts NNE | 10 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 22. | 2100 | 25°C | Clear (7%) | 7 (spread 6–8) kts NE | 12 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 23. | 2200 | 24°C | Clear (6%) | 7 (spread 6–8) kts NE | 12 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 24. | 2300 | 23°C | Clear (7%) | 7 (spread 7–8) kts NE | 12 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
Confidence: 73% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 21% of readings interpolated · first light 0602L · last light 1826L · Moon 15 % illuminated, rises 09:49, sets 21:29.
Sat 14 Nov 26
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 22 (spread 21–22)°C | Clear (4%) | 7 kts NE | 12 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 2. | 0100 | 21 (spread 20–22)°C | Clear (2%) | 7 (spread 6–7) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 3. | 0200 | 20 (spread 20–21)°C | Clear (2%) | 7 (spread 6–7) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 4. | 0300 | 20 (spread 19–20)°C | Clear (3%) | 7 (spread 6–7) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 5. | 0400 | 19 (spread 19–20)°C | Clear (1%) | 7 (spread 6–7) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 11 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 6. | 0500 | 19°C | Clear (1%) | 7 (spread 6–7) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 18 (spread 18–19)°C | Clear (3%) | 7 (spread 6–8) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 18 (spread 18–19)°C | Clear (3%) | 8 (spread 6–8) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 11 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 21°C | Clear (6%) | 8 (spread 7–8) kts ENE | 13 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 10. | 0900 | 24 (spread 24–25)°C | Mostly clear (25%) | 8 (spread 8–9) kts ENE | 15 kts | 1018 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 11. | 1000 | 27 (spread 26–28)°C | Partly cloudy (37%) | 9 (spread 8–9) kts ENE | 16 kts | 1019 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 12. | 1100 | 29 (spread 28–30)°C | Partly cloudy (33%) | 8 (spread 8–9) kts ENE | 16 kts | 1018 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 13. | 1200 | 31 (spread 31–32)°C | Partly cloudy (40%) | 9 (spread 9–10) kts ENE | 15 kts | 1018 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 14. | 1300 | 33°C | Partly cloudy (47%) | 9 (spread 8–10) kts ENE | 14 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt
| gusts, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 33°C | Partly cloudy (55%) | 8 (spread 8–9) kts ENE | 14 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | cloud 55% · gust 14 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 16. | 1500 | 33°C | Mostly clear (27%) | 8 (spread 7–9) kts ENE | 13 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 17. | 1600 | 33°C | Partly cloudy (34%) | 8 (spread 7–8) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 18. | 1700 | 32 (spread 31–32)°C | Partly cloudy (34%) | 8 (spread 7–9) kts NE | 12 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 19. | 1800 | 29°C | Clear (9%) | 7 kts NE | 12 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 20. | 1900 | 27 (spread 27–28)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (spread 7–8) kts NNE | 12 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 21. | 2000 | 26 (spread 26–27)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (spread 7–8) kts NNE | 12 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 22. | 2100 | 25 (spread 25–26)°C | Clear (0%) | 8 (spread 7–8) kts NE | 12 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 24 (spread 24–25)°C | Clear (0%) | 8 (spread 7–8) kts NE | 13 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 24. | 2300 | 23 (spread 23–24)°C | Clear (0%) | 8 (spread 7–8) kts NE | 12 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 73% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 23% of readings interpolated · first light 0603L · last light 1826L · Moon 23 % illuminated, rises 10:37, sets 22:21.
Sun 15 Nov 26
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 22 (spread 22–23)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (spread 7–8) kts NE | 12 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 2. | 0100 | 22 (spread 21–22)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (spread 7–8) kts ENE | 13 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 3. | 0200 | 21 (spread 21–22)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (spread 7–8) kts ENE | 13 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 4. | 0300 | 21 (spread 20–21)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (spread 7–8) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 5. | 0400 | 20°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (spread 7–8) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 6. | 0500 | 20 (spread 19–20)°C | Clear (3%) | 7 (spread 7–8) kts ENE | 14 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +6 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 19 (spread 19–20)°C | Clear (3%) | 8 (spread 8–9) kts ENE | 14 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 19°C | Clear (3%) | 9 (spread 8–9) kts ENE | 15 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 22°C | Clear (4%) | 9 kts ENE | 16 kts | 1017 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 10. | 0900 | 25°C | Clear (4%) | 9 (spread 9–10) kts ENE | 17 kts | 1017 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 11. | 1000 | 28 (spread 27–28)°C | Clear (4%) | 10 (spread 9–10) kts ENE | 18 kts | 1018 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 12. | 1100 | 30 (spread 29–30)°C | Clear (4%) | 9 (spread 9–10) kts ENE | 18 kts | 1018 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 13. | 1200 | 33 (spread 32–33)°C | Clear (5%) | 11 kts ENE | 18 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 14. | 1300 | 34 (spread 34–35)°C | Clear (4%) | 10 (spread 10–11) kts ENE | 18 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 15. | 1400 | 34 (spread 34–35)°C | Clear (4%) | 10 kts ENE | 17 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 16. | 1500 | 34 (spread 34–35)°C | Clear (4%) | 9 kts ENE | 16 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 17. | 1600 | 34°C | Clear (4%) | 9 (spread 8–9) kts NE | 15 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 18. | 1700 | 33 (spread 32–33)°C | Clear (3%) | 8 (spread 8–9) kts NE | 15 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 19. | 1800 | 30°C | Clear (3%) | 7 (spread 6–7) kts NNE | 14 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +8 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 28°C | Clear (2%) | 7 (spread 6–7) kts NNE | 14 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +7 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 27°C | Clear (2%) | 7 (spread 6–7) kts NNE | 17 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +10 kt · visibility not forecast
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 26°C | Clear (2%) | 7 (spread 6–7) kts NNE | 16 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt · gust spread +9 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 25°C | Clear (2%) | 7 (spread 6–7) kts NE | 15 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 24°C | Clear (2%) | 7 kts NE | 14 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +7 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 71% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 18% of readings interpolated · first light 0603L · last light 1826L · Moon 31 % illuminated, rises 11:22, sets 23:10.
Mon 16 Nov 26
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 23°C | Clear (1%) | 6 (spread 6–7) kts NE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · gust spread +7 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 22 (spread 22–23)°C | Clear (1%) | 7 kts NE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 3. | 0200 | 21 (spread 21–22)°C | Clear (1%) | 7 kts NE | 12 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 4. | 0300 | 21°C | Clear (1%) | 7 (spread 7–8) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 5. | 0400 | 20 (spread 20–21)°C | Clear (1%) | 7 (spread 7–8) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 6. | 0500 | 20 (spread 19–20)°C | Clear (1%) | 8 (spread 7–8) kts ENE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 19 (spread 19–20)°C | Clear (1%) | 8 (spread 8–9) kts ENE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 20 (spread 19–20)°C | Clear (0%) | 9 (spread 8–9) kts ENE | 14 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 22 (spread 21–22)°C | Clear (0%) | 9 (spread 8–9) kts ENE | 15 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 10. | 0900 | 25 (spread 24–25)°C | Clear (0%) | 9 (spread 8–9) kts ENE | 15 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 11. | 1000 | 27 (spread 26–28)°C | Clear (0%) | 9 (spread 8–9) kts ENE | 16 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 12. | 1100 | 30 (spread 29–30)°C | Clear (0%) | 9 (spread 8–9) kts ENE | 17 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 13. | 1200 | 33 (spread 32–34)°C | Clear (0%) | 11 (spread 10–11) kts ENE | 18 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 14. | 1300 | 35 (spread 34–36)°C | Clear (0%) | 10 (spread 10–11) kts ENE | 18 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 15. | 1400 | 35 (spread 34–36)°C | Clear (0%) | 10 (spread 9–10) kts ENE | 18 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 16. | 1500 | 35 (spread 34–35)°C | Clear (0%) | 9 kts NE | 18 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 17. | 1600 | 34 (spread 33–35)°C | Clear (0%) | 8 (spread 8–9) kts NE | 18 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt · gust spread +9 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 18. | 1700 | 32 (spread 32–33)°C | Clear (0%) | 8 kts NE | 17 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt · gust spread +9 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 19. | 1800 | 30 (spread 29–30)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (spread 5–6) kts NNE | 17 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +11 kt · visibility not forecast
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 28°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (spread 5–6) kts NNE | 17 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +11 kt · visibility not forecast
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 27°C | Clear (1%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts NNE | 16 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +10 kt · visibility not forecast
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 26°C | Clear (1%) | 6 (spread 6–7) kts NNE | 15 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt · gust spread +9 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 25°C | Clear (1%) | 6 kts NE | 14 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +8 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 24 (spread 23–24)°C | Clear (1%) | 6 kts NE | 12 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
Confidence: 71% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 16% of readings interpolated · first light 0603L · last light 1826L · Moon 40 % illuminated, rises 12:04, sets 23:58.
Tue 17 Nov 26
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 23°C | Clear (1%) | 6 (spread 5–6) kts NE | 11 kts | 1013 | · - No data | storm 4% · gust 11 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 2. | 0100 | 22°C | Clear (1%) | 6 (spread 5–6) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1013 | · - No data | storm 4% · gust 9 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 3. | 0200 | 21 (spread 20–21)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1013 | · - No data | storm 4% · gust 9 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 4. | 0300 | 20°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1013 | · - No data | storm 4% · gust 9 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 5. | 0400 | 19 (spread 19–20)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1013 | · - No data | storm 4% · gust 9 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 6. | 0500 | 19 (spread 19–20)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1013 | · - No data | storm 4% · gust 9 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 19 (spread 18–19)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (spread 6–8) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1013 | · - No data | storm 4% · gust 10 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 19°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (spread 6–8) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1013 | · - No data | storm 4% · gust 10 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 21 (spread 20–22)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (spread 7–8) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1013 | · - No data | storm 4% · gust 11 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 10. | 0900 | 24 (spread 23–24)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (spread 7–8) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 11. | 1000 | 27 (spread 26–27)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (spread 7–8) kts ENE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 12. | 1100 | 29°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (spread 7–8) kts ENE | 14 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +7 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 13. | 1200 | 33 (spread 32–33)°C | Clear (1%) | 9 kts ENE | 14 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 14. | 1300 | 35 (spread 34–35)°C | Clear (1%) | 9 (spread 8–9) kts ENE | 19 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt · gust spread +10 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 15. | 1400 | 34 (spread 34–35)°C | Clear (1%) | 8 (spread 7–8) kts NE | 19 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt · gust spread +11 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 16. | 1500 | 34 (spread 33–34)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (spread 7–8) kts NE | 19 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt · gust spread +11 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 17. | 1600 | 33°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (spread 6–7) kts NE | 13 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 18. | 1700 | 31 (spread 31–32)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 kts NE | 13 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · gust spread +7 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 19. | 1800 | 29°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (spread 3–4) kts NNE | 13 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust spread +9 kt · visibility not forecast
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 27 (spread 27–28)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (spread 3–5) kts NNE | 13 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust spread +9 kt · visibility not forecast
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 26 (spread 26–27)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts NE | 12 kts | 1012 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · gust spread +8 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 25 (spread 25–26)°C | Clear (0%) | 5 (spread 4–5) kts NE | 11 kts | 1012 | · - No data | storm 4% · gust 11 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 23. | 2200 | 24 (spread 24–25)°C | Clear (1%) | 5 kts NE | 10 kts | 1012 | · - No data | storm 4% · gust 10 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 24. | 2300 | 23 (spread 23–24)°C | Clear (1%) | 6 (spread 5–6) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1012 | · - No data | storm 4% · gust 10 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
Confidence: 70% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 16% of readings interpolated · first light 0604L · last light 1826L · Moon 50 % illuminated, rises 12:44.
Wed 18 Nov 26
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 22 (spread 22–23)°C | Clear (1%) | 5 (spread 5–6) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1012 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · gust spread +6 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 21 (spread 21–22)°C | Clear (1%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1012 | · - No data | storm 4% · gust 11 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 3. | 0200 | 21 (spread 20–21)°C | Clear (1%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1012 | · - No data | storm 4% · gust 11 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 4. | 0300 | 20 (spread 20–21)°C | Clear (2%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1012 | · - No data | storm 4% · gust 9 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 5. | 0400 | 19 (spread 19–20)°C | Clear (2%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1012 | · - No data | storm 4% · gust 9 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 6. | 0500 | 19 (spread 18–20)°C | Clear (2%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1012 | · - No data | storm 4% · gust 9 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 19 (spread 18–19)°C | Clear (2%) | 7 (spread 6–8) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1012 | · - No data | storm 4% · gust 9 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 19 (spread 18–19)°C | Clear (2%) | 7 (spread 6–8) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1012 | · - No data | storm 4% · gust 10 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 21 (spread 20–22)°C | Clear (4%) | 7 (spread 6–8) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1013 | · - No data | storm 4% · gust 10 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 10. | 0900 | 24 (spread 23–24)°C | Clear (5%) | 7 (spread 6–8) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1013 | · - No data | storm 4% · gust 11 kt · visibility not forecast
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 11. | 1000 | 26 (spread 26–27)°C | Clear (6%) | 7 (spread 6–8) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 12. | 1100 | 29°C | Clear (8%) | 7 (spread 6–8) kts ENE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 13. | 1200 | 33°C | Clear (9%) | 9 (spread 8–9) kts NE | 14 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 14. | 1300 | 35 (spread 34–35)°C | Clear (8%) | 9 (spread 8–9) kts NE | 18 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 15. | 1400 | 35 (spread 34–35)°C | Clear (10%) | 8 (spread 8–9) kts NE | 18 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt · gust spread +10 kt · visibility not forecast
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 16. | 1500 | 34°C | Clear (9%) | 8 (spread 7–8) kts NE | 18 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt · gust spread +11 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 17. | 1600 | 33 (spread 33–34)°C | Clear (9%) | 7 kts NE | 14 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 18. | 1700 | 32 (spread 31–32)°C | Clear (9%) | 6 (spread 6–7) kts NE | 14 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 19. | 1800 | 29 (spread 29–30)°C | Clear (9%) | 4 kts NNE | 13 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust spread +9 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 28 (spread 27–29)°C | Clear (8%) | 4 kts NNE | 13 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust spread +9 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 27 (spread 26–28)°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts NE | 13 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust spread +8 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 26 (spread 25–26)°C | Mostly clear (19%) | 5 (spread 4–5) kts NE | 12 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 25 (spread 24–25)°C | Mostly clear (26%) | 5 kts NE | 11 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 24. | 2300 | 23 (spread 23–24)°C | Mostly clear (32%) | 6 (spread 5–6) kts NE | 11 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
Confidence: 69% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 16% of readings interpolated · first light 0604L · last light 1826L · Moon 60 % illuminated, rises 13:22, sets 00:46.
Thu 19 Nov 26
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 22 (spread 22–23)°C | Partly cloudy (38%) | 6 (spread 5–6) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 2. | 0100 | 21 (spread 21–22)°C | Partly cloudy (42%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 3. | 0200 | 21°C | Partly cloudy (37%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 4. | 0300 | 20 (spread 20–21)°C | Mostly clear (32%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 5. | 0400 | 20 (spread 19–20)°C | Mostly clear (25%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 6. | 0500 | 19 (spread 19–20)°C | Mostly clear (18%) | 6 (spread 6–7) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 19°C | Clear (12%) | 7 (spread 6–7) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 19°C | Clear (8%) | 7 kts ENE | 11 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 21 (spread 21–22)°C | Mostly clear (16%) | 7 kts ENE | 13 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 10. | 0900 | 24 (spread 23–25)°C | Mostly clear (24%) | 8 kts ENE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 11. | 1000 | 27 (spread 26–27)°C | Partly cloudy (34%) | 8 (spread 8–9) kts ENE | 14 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 12. | 1100 | 29 (spread 29–30)°C | Partly cloudy (44%) | 8 kts ENE | 15 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 13. | 1200 | 33°C | Partly cloudy (52%) | 10 (spread 10–11) kts ENE | 15 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 14. | 1300 | 35°C | Partly cloudy (58%) | 10 (spread 9–10) kts ENE | 15 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 35°C | Cloudy (67%) | 10 kts ENE | 15 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | cloud 67% · gust 15 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 16. | 1500 | 34°C | Cloudy (72%) | 9 kts NE | 15 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 72%
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 17. | 1600 | 34°C | Cloudy (76%) | 9 kts NE | 15 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 76%
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 18. | 1700 | 32°C | Cloudy (78%) | 8 kts NNE | 16 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 78%
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 19. | 1800 | 29°C | Cloudy (79%) | 6 kts NNE | 17 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 79% · gust spread +11 kt
| cloud cover, wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 28°C | Cloudy (79%) | 6 kts NNE | 17 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 79% · gust spread +11 kt
| cloud cover, wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 27°C | Cloudy (81%) | 6 kts NNE | 17 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 81% · gust spread +11 kt
| cloud cover, wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 26°C | Cloudy (81%) | 6 kts NNE | 17 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 81% · gust spread +11 kt
| cloud cover, wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 25°C | Cloudy (80%) | 6 kts NE | 16 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 80% · gust spread +10 kt
| cloud cover, wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 24°C | Cloudy (77%) | 7 kts NE | 15 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 77%
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 69% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 8% of readings interpolated · first light 0604L · last light 1826L · Moon 69 % illuminated, rises 14:00, sets 01:33.
Fri 20 Nov 26
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 23°C | Cloudy (74%) | 6 kts ENE | 14 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 74%
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 22°C | Cloudy (69%) | 6 kts ENE | 13 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 69%
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 22°C | Cloudy (62%) | 7 kts ENE | 13 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | cloud 62%
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 4. | 0300 | 21°C | Partly cloudy (51%) | 7 kts ENE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 5. | 0400 | 20°C | Partly cloudy (41%) | 7 kts ENE | 14 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 6. | 0500 | 20°C | Mostly clear (32%) | 7 kts ENE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 20°C | Mostly clear (25%) | 8 kts ENE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 20°C | Mostly clear (21%) | 8 kts ENE | 16 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 22°C | Mostly clear (19%) | 9 kts ENE | 16 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 10. | 0900 | 25°C | Mostly clear (18%) | 9 kts ENE | 17 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 11. | 1000 | 27°C | Mostly clear (18%) | 9 kts ENE | 17 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 12. | 1100 | 30°C | Mostly clear (19%) | 9 kts ENE | 17 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 13. | 1200 | 33°C | Mostly clear (20%) | 11 kts ENE | 17 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 14. | 1300 | 35°C | Mostly clear (19%) | 11 kts ENE | 17 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 35°C | Mostly clear (17%) | 10 kts ENE | 17 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 16. | 1500 | 34°C | Mostly clear (15%) | 10 kts NE | 16 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 17. | 1600 | 34°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 10 kts NE | 17 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 18. | 1700 | 32°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 9 kts NNE | 17 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 19. | 1800 | 29°C | Mostly clear (14%) | 7 kts NNE | 18 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt · gust spread +11 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 28°C | Mostly clear (15%) | 7 kts NNE | 19 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt · gust spread +12 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 27°C | Mostly clear (16%) | 7 kts NNE | 19 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt · gust spread +12 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 26°C | Mostly clear (17%) | 7 kts NNE | 19 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt · gust spread +11 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 25°C | Mostly clear (19%) | 7 kts NE | 18 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt · gust spread +11 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 24°C | Mostly clear (19%) | 7 kts NE | 16 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt · gust spread +9 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 69% — data for 24 of 24 hours · first light 0605L · last light 1826L · Moon 79 % illuminated, rises 14:39, sets 02:21.
Sat 21 Nov 26
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 23°C | Mostly clear (19%) | 6 kts NE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 23°C | Mostly clear (19%) | 6 kts NE | 14 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 22°C | Mostly clear (16%) | 7 kts NE | 14 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 22°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 7 kts NE | 14 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 5. | 0400 | 21°C | Clear (10%) | 7 kts NE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 6. | 0500 | 21°C | Clear (9%) | 8 kts NE | 16 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 21°C | Clear (10%) | 9 kts NE | 17 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 21°C | Clear (10%) | 9 kts NE | 17 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 23°C | Clear (9%) | 9 kts ENE | 18 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 10. | 0900 | 25°C | Clear (8%) | 10 kts ENE | 18 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 11. | 1000 | 28°C | Clear (6%) | 10 kts ENE | 18 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 12. | 1100 | 30°C | Clear (6%) | 10 kts ENE | 18 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 13. | 1200 | 33°C | Clear (5%) | 12 kts ENE | 18 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt
| gusts, strong wind, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 14. | 1300 | 35°C | Clear (5%) | 12 kts ENE | 18 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt
| gusts, strong wind, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 35°C | Clear (5%) | 12 kts NE | 18 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt
| gusts, strong wind, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 16. | 1500 | 34°C | Clear (5%) | 11 kts NE | 18 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 17. | 1600 | 34°C | Clear (5%) | 11 kts NE | 19 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 18. | 1700 | 32°C | Clear (7%) | 10 kts NE | 19 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 19. | 1800 | 30°C | Clear (8%) | 8 kts NNE | 19 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt · gust spread +11 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 28°C | Clear (9%) | 8 kts NNE | 19 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt · gust spread +11 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 27°C | Clear (11%) | 7 kts NNE | 18 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt · gust spread +11 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 26°C | Clear (12%) | 7 kts NNE | 16 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt · gust spread +9 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 25°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 7 kts NE | 14 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 24°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 7 kts NE | 13 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
Confidence: 69% — data for 24 of 24 hours · first light 0605L · last light 1826L · Moon 87 % illuminated, rises 15:21, sets 03:11.
Sun 22 Nov 26
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 23°C | Clear (12%) | 6 kts NE | 12 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 2. | 0100 | 22°C | Clear (12%) | 6 kts NE | 11 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 3. | 0200 | 22°C | Clear (12%) | 6 kts ENE | 11 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 4. | 0300 | 21°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 7 kts ENE | 11 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 5. | 0400 | 21°C | Mostly clear (14%) | 7 kts ENE | 12 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 6. | 0500 | 20°C | Mostly clear (14%) | 7 kts ENE | 13 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 20°C | Mostly clear (15%) | 8 kts ENE | 15 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 20°C | Mostly clear (16%) | 8 kts ENE | 16 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 22°C | Mostly clear (18%) | 9 kts ENE | 16 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 10. | 0900 | 25°C | Mostly clear (20%) | 9 kts ENE | 16 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 11. | 1000 | 28°C | Mostly clear (23%) | 9 kts ENE | 17 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 12. | 1100 | 30°C | Mostly clear (25%) | 9 kts ENE | 17 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 13. | 1200 | 33°C | Mostly clear (28%) | 11 kts NE | 17 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 14. | 1300 | 35°C | Mostly clear (28%) | 11 kts NE | 16 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 35°C | Mostly clear (26%) | 11 kts NE | 16 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 16. | 1500 | 35°C | Mostly clear (22%) | 10 kts NE | 16 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 17. | 1600 | 34°C | Mostly clear (19%) | 10 kts NE | 16 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 18. | 1700 | 32°C | Mostly clear (18%) | 9 kts NNE | 16 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 19. | 1800 | 30°C | Mostly clear (19%) | 7 kts NNE | 17 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +10 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 28°C | Mostly clear (19%) | 7 kts NNE | 17 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +10 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 27°C | Mostly clear (18%) | 7 kts NNE | 16 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt · gust spread +10 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 26°C | Mostly clear (15%) | 7 kts NE | 15 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 25°C | Mostly clear (14%) | 7 kts NE | 14 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 24°C | Mostly clear (16%) | 7 kts NE | 12 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
Confidence: 69% — data for 24 of 24 hours · first light 0606L · last light 1826L · Moon 93 % illuminated, rises 16:07, sets 04:05.
Mon 23 Nov 26
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 24°C | Mostly clear (18%) | 6 kts NE | 11 kts | 1012 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 2. | 0100 | 23°C | Mostly clear (20%) | 6 kts NE | 12 kts | 1012 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 3. | 0200 | 22°C | Mostly clear (20%) | 7 kts NE | 12 kts | 1012 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 4. | 0300 | 22°C | Mostly clear (19%) | 7 kts ENE | 10 kts | 1012 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 5. | 0400 | 21°C | Mostly clear (19%) | 7 kts ENE | 10 kts | 1012 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 6. | 0500 | 21°C | Mostly clear (19%) | 7 kts ENE | 11 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 21°C | Mostly clear (19%) | 8 kts ENE | 12 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 21°C | Mostly clear (20%) | 8 kts ENE | 13 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear, fog risk 15 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 23°C | Mostly clear (21%) | 8 kts ENE | 14 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 10. | 0900 | 25°C | Mostly clear (22%) | 9 kts ENE | 15 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 11. | 1000 | 28°C | Mostly clear (22%) | 9 kts ENE | 16 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 12. | 1100 | 30°C | Mostly clear (22%) | 9 kts ENE | 17 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 13. | 1200 | 34°C | Mostly clear (22%) | 11 kts ENE | 17 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 14. | 1300 | 35°C | Mostly clear (21%) | 11 kts ENE | 17 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 35°C | Mostly clear (21%) | 10 kts ENE | 17 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 16. | 1500 | 35°C | Mostly clear (21%) | 10 kts NE | 17 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 17. | 1600 | 34°C | Mostly clear (20%) | 10 kts NE | 17 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 18. | 1700 | 33°C | Mostly clear (18%) | 10 kts NNE | 17 kts | 1012 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 19. | 1800 | 30°C | Mostly clear (14%) | 8 kts NNE | 17 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt · gust spread +10 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 29°C | Clear (12%) | 8 kts NNE | 17 kts | 1012 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt · gust spread +10 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 28°C | Clear (12%) | 7 kts NNE | 17 kts | 1012 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +9 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 27°C | Mostly clear (14%) | 7 kts NNE | 16 kts | 1012 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 26°C | Mostly clear (16%) | 7 kts NE | 15 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 25°C | Mostly clear (19%) | 7 kts NE | 13 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
Confidence: 69% — data for 24 of 24 hours · first light 0606L · last light 1826L · Moon 98 % illuminated, rises 16:59, sets 05:03.
TAF
No current TAF — last issued 6 Nov 17:00Z, expired 8 Nov 00:00Z
Imagery
Source panel
| Source | Accuracy | Skill n | Temp °C | Wind kt | Visibility | Storm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) |
| Met.no (Yr) | ≈ 1.1 | 1933 | 22–28 | 2–3 | — | 0 % |
| Open-Meteo | ▲ 1.1 | 5609 | 22–28 | 2–3 | 10+ km | 0 % |
| OpenWeather | ≈ 1.1 | 888 | 21–25 | 4–5 | 10+ km | 0 % |
| Tomorrow.io | ▲ 1.1 | 2533 | 22–28 | 2–3 | 10+ km | 0 % |
| Visual Crossing | ▲ 1.1 | 4849 | 22–27 | 3–4 | 10+ km | 0 % |
Each source's own raw values, min–max over the next 6 hours from the issue hour (before any weighting or bias correction). — means the source does not publish that metric in the window. Wide gaps between rows are real disagreement; the forecast above weights sources by measured skill.
Reading this report
Grades: each hour carries one grade, set by its WORST factor. The bands below are the thresholds in force for this report (Settings); a value in a band earns that grade, and "-" means the factor never produces that grade. Cloud is graded on the worse of cover and ceiling. The Driver column names the limiting factor with its value; open it in the web report for the boundary and sources.
| Grade | Cloud cover | Cloud ceiling | Visibility | Wind | Gust | Rain chance | Thunderstorm probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) |
| A Excellent | ≤ 17.1% | ≥ 30000 ft | ≥ 8000 m | < 3 kt | < 3 kt | < 5% | 0% |
| B Good | 17.1–34.3% | 26000–30000 ft | 6666.7–8000 m | 3–6 kt | 3–6 kt | 5–10% | - |
| C Fair | 34.3–42.9% | 24000–26000 ft | 5333.3–6666.7 m | 6–9 kt | 6–9 kt | 10–15% | - |
| D Marginal | 42.9–51.4% | 22000–24000 ft | 4000–5333.3 m | 9–12 kt | 9–12 kt | 15–20% | >0–15% |
| E Poor | 51.4–60% | 16000–22000 ft | 2666.7–4000 m | 12–15 kt | 12–15 kt | 20–25% | 15–30% |
| F Very Poor | 60–68.6% | 10000–16000 ft | 1333.3–2666.7 m | 15–18 kt | 15–18 kt | 25–30% | 30–60% |
| G Unacceptable | > 68.6% | < 10000 ft | < 1333.3 m | ≥ 18 kt | ≥ 18 kt | ≥ 30% | > 60% |
Flight windows: a window is at least 2 consecutive hours graded Marginal or better; an hour with insufficient data never counts toward one. ☾ marks a window outside first-to-last light.
Time: hours are local time (WAT, UTC+1) unless suffixed Z, which is UTC (TAF, METAR and issue times). Local midnight is labelled 0001.
Units: temperature °C · wind and gusts knots · visibility metres (km in text) · cloud ceiling feet · cloud cover % · rain chance and thunderstorm probability % · QNH hPa (altimeter setting at the field) · CAPE J/kg. A figure like "28 (26–30)°C" gives the p10–p90 range; "spread" marks disagreement between sources.
Symbols: ▲ better than the pool · ▽ worse (only when the 95% interval excludes the pool) · ≈ not distinguishable from the pool · unmarked = unproven (accuracy is measured against METAR and SYNOP observations). ⚠ on a remark means a low-confidence hour; a ⚠ paragraph on the first page is a convective-warning or data-age advisory. ⚡ is lightning observed by satellite near the field (©EUMETSAT).
Hourly glyphs: the wind arrow points the way the air moves (a north wind is ↓, an east wind ←); cloud cover shows as ☀ ◔ ◑ ◕ ☁ (clear, few, scattered, broken, overcast); a shaded hour label is wholly before first light or after last light.
Terms: "No data" - no source forecast the hour, or a core group (cloud, visibility, wind) is missing and the hour could still be flyable; missing data is never given a good grade. "Low-confidence" - few or weak sources behind the load-bearing metrics; treat the grade as indicative. "Insufficient data" - too little to grade at all. "Estimated" (est.) - the value is derived, not reported by a source (dust visibility, cloud base, gusts); it is declared where used and weighted at half. "Derived" - an hour interpolated from a coarser (3-hourly or daily) source, weighted at half and never used to score accuracy.
Data provenance
| Source | Fetched (Z) | Age | Skill n | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) |
| Aviation Weather Center (aviationweather.gov) | 10 Nov 03:20Z | 4 min | 248 | ≈ 1.0 |
| Foreca | 10 Nov 03:21Z | 3 min | 425 | ▲ 1.1 |
| Met.no (Yr) | 10 Nov 03:20Z | 3 min | 1933 | ≈ 1.1 |
| Open-Meteo | 10 Nov 03:20Z | 3 min | 5609 | ▲ 1.1 |
| OpenWeather | 10 Nov 03:19Z | 5 min | 888 | ≈ 1.1 |
| Tomorrow.io | 10 Nov 03:19Z | 4 min | 2533 | ▲ 1.1 |
| Visual Crossing | 10 Nov 03:19Z | 5 min | 4849 | ▲ 1.1 |
Corrections applied (detailed under Learned corrections on the first page): skill weighting, bias correction, hour-of-day bias, cloud-base estimate, probability calibration, fog risk, climatology bounds, skill blend.
How accurate have we been
Measured against observations (METAR/SYNOP), kaduna only. Verification table computed 2026-11-10. Mean absolute error (MAE): lower is better; "beats persistence" compares the best source with "it will stay as it is now" on the same hours.
| Metric | Best source | Best MAE | Typical MAE | Persistence MAE | Beats persistence by | Pairs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) |
| Temperature (°C) | foreca | 1.0 | 1.5 | 5.4 | 85 % | 174 |
| Dew point (°C) | accuweather | 0.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 52 % | 28 |
| Wind speed (kt) | ukmo | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 15 % | 704 |
| Visibility (m) | aviationweather | 864 | 1255 | 1236 | 4 % | 93 |
| Cloud cover (%) | accuweather | 21 | 51 | 10 | - | 28 |
Learned bias (forecast minus observed; positive = sources run high), mean over scored sources, by local time of day. These are corrected for before sources are averaged.
| Metric | Overall | Night | Morning | Afternoon | Evening | Pairs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) |
| Temperature (°C) | -0.7 | +0.2 | -0.2 | -1.3 | -0.5 | 15039 |
| Dew point (°C) | -2.4 | -1.0 | -2.2 | -2.7 | -2.7 | 14126 |
| Wind speed (kt) | -2.3 | -0.7 | -1.5 | -3.4 | -2.0 | 15135 |
Not yet available: Scores are decayed over the verification window (half-life 14 days); separate last-7-day and last-30-day windows are not stored. Bias is the current learned value; the history needed for a trend over time is not stored. Flight-window hit / bust / miss is not yet recorded.