Minna — 14-Day Forecast
DNMN · issued 9 Nov 26 00:25Z
Sources used (7): Open-Meteo Ensemble (ECMWF IFS + GEFS)≈ 1.1 Foreca▲ 1.1 Met.no (Yr)≈ 1.1 Open-Meteo≈ 1.1 OpenWeather≈ 1.1 Tomorrow.io▲ 1.1 Visual Crossing▲ 1.1
▲ better than the pool · ▽ worse (only when the 95% interval excludes the pool) · ≈ not distinguishable from the pool · unmarked = unproven (accuracy is measured against METAR and SYNOP observations)
Mon9 Nov 26
·DDDDDDDDDEEEEEEEDEDDDDE
0100–0900L (Marginal, 9 h) ☾ 1900–2200L (Marginal, 4 h) ☾
76%
Tue10 Nov 26
EEDDGGGGFEDEGGGGGGGGGGGG
best window: 0200–0300L (Marginal, 2 h) ☾
79%
Wed11 Nov 26
GGGGGGGGGFEEEEFGFGFDDDDE
1900–2200L (Marginal, 4 h) ☾
75%
Thu12 Nov 26
EEFFEFGGGEDDDDDDDDDDDDDD
1000–2300L (Marginal, 14 h) ☾
73%
Fri13 Nov 26
DDEGGGGGGGGGGGFDDDDDDDDD
0001–0100L (Marginal, 2 h) ☾ 1500–2300L (Marginal, 9 h) ☾
74%
Sat14 Nov 26
DDDDDDDDDDEEEEEEEEEDDDDD
0001–0900L (Marginal, 10 h) ☾ 1900–2300L (Marginal, 5 h) ☾
71%
Sun15 Nov 26
DDDDDDDDDDEEEEEFEEEEDDDD
0001–0900L (Marginal, 10 h) ☾ 2000–2300L (Marginal, 4 h) ☾
70%
Mon16 Nov 26
DDDDDDDDDDDEEEEEDEEDDEDD
0001–1000L (Marginal, 11 h) ☾ 1900–2000L (Marginal, 2 h) ☾ 2200–2300L (Marginal, 2 h) ☾
69%
Tue17 Nov 26
DDDDDDEEEDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD
0001–0500L (Marginal, 6 h) ☾ 0900–2300L (Marginal, 15 h) ☾
69%
Wed18 Nov 26
DDDDDDDDDDDDEEFFGGGGFEDD
0001–1100L (Marginal, 12 h) ☾ 2200–2300L (Marginal, 2 h) ☾
68%
Thu19 Nov 26
DDDDDDDDEEEEFGGGGGGGGFDD
0001–0700L (Marginal, 8 h) ☾ 2200–2300L (Marginal, 2 h) ☾
68%
Fri20 Nov 26
DDDDDDDDDDEDDDDDDDDDDDDD
0001–0900L (Marginal, 10 h) ☾ 1100–2300L (Marginal, 13 h) ☾
68%
Sat21 Nov 26
DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD
0001–2300L (Marginal, 24 h) ☾
67%
Sun22 Nov 26
DDDDEEEEEEEDDDDDDDDDDDDD
0001–0300L (Marginal, 4 h) ☾ 1100–2300L (Marginal, 13 h) ☾
67%
A ExcellentB GoodC FairD MarginalE PoorF Very PoorG Unacceptable· No data
Best window (highest confidence, then grade, then length): Tue 10 Nov 26 0200–0300L (Marginal, 2 h) ☾, confidence 79%.
Learned corrections (METAR-verified): skill weighting — pooled all-field scores for 206; bias corrections — aifs wind +3.0 kt, meteoblue temperature +3.0 °C, meteoblue QNH −3.0 hPa, Open-Meteo temperature +3.0 °C, Open-Meteo dewpoint +3.0 °C, Met.no (Yr) temperature +3.0 °C (+67 more); hour-of-day bias (local time, shrunk toward the all-hours bias) — aifs afternoon wind +3.7 kt, metcheck afternoon wind +3.4 kt, meteoblue night temperature +3.0 °C, meteoblue morning temperature +3.0 °C, meteoblue afternoon temperature +3.0 °C, meteoblue evening temperature +3.0 °C (+284 more); cloud base estimated as 410 ft per °C of dewpoint spread for sources that report no ceiling (≥60% cloud cover; flagged estimated, weighted ×0.5); probability calibration — rain chance: meteoblue, Open-Meteo, Foreca, metcheck, OpenWeather, Visual Crossing, Tomorrow.io, wttrin, ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo, gem, Open-Meteo Ensemble (ECMWF IFS + GEFS); storm: Open-Meteo, Met.no (Yr), Foreca, OpenWeather, Visual Crossing, Tomorrow.io, wttrin, ecmwf, gfs, icon, meteofrance, aviationweather, ukmo, jma, gem, Open-Meteo Ensemble (ECMWF IFS + GEFS), aifs (each source's stated probability mapped to its verified frequency by an isotonic fit on ≥200 pairs, proven on the holdout); fog risk (n=1075): observed fog frequency by dewpoint spread, wind, local hour and season for the forecast conditions (shown from 10 %), proven on the holdout; plausibility bounds from ERA5 climatology 2016-2025 (mean ± 5 sd; screening only, not observed truth); skill blend 1 auto-tuned over 9267 holdout pairs (consensus beat the best single source, icon, by 13%); correction gates (newest-7-day holdout; pooled skill is always on) — regional skill: off this week (did not improve holdout); place skill: off this week (did not improve holdout); lead-time skill: off this week (did not improve holdout); small-sample skill shrinkage: off this week (did not improve holdout); bias correction: on (improved holdout by 26.4%); place bias: on (improved holdout by 10.1%); hour-of-day bias: on (improved holdout by 6.6%); QNH bias: on (improved holdout by 55.7%); gust estimates: off this week (did not improve holdout); cloud-base coefficient: off this week (insufficient holdout: 83 of 200 items); recent-form skill: off this week (did not improve holdout); probability calibration: on (improved holdout by 46.6%); nowcast anchor horizon: off this week (did not improve holdout); dust-visibility estimate: off this week (did not improve holdout); fog risk: on (improved holdout by 1.5%).
Outlook
| Day | Date | Outlook | Temp | Max wind | Flight windows | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) |
| Mon | 9 Nov 26 | Marginal | 24–34°C | 7 kts S, g 11 | 0100–0900L (Marginal, 9 h) ☾; 1900–2200L (Marginal, 4 h) ☾ | 76% | 8% interpolated |
| Tue | 10 Nov 26 | Unacceptable | 24–34°C | 6 kts NNE, g 9 | 0200–0300L (Marginal, 2 h) ☾ | 79% | 9% interpolated |
| Wed | 11 Nov 26 | Unacceptable | 24–35°C | 6 kts ENE, g 10 | 1900–2200L (Marginal, 4 h) ☾ | 75% | 14% interpolated |
| Thu | 12 Nov 26 | Marginal | 22–34°C | 6 kts S, g 9 | 1000–2300L (Marginal, 14 h) ☾ | 73% | 19% interpolated |
| Fri | 13 Nov 26 | Marginal | 22–33°C | 5 kts NNW, g 9 | 0001–0100L (Marginal, 2 h) ☾; 1500–2300L (Marginal, 9 h) ☾ | 74% | 20% interpolated |
| Sat | 14 Nov 26 | Marginal | 21–33°C | 7 kts ESE, g 14 | 0001–0900L (Marginal, 10 h) ☾; 1900–2300L (Marginal, 5 h) ☾ | 71% | 15% interpolated |
| Sun | 15 Nov 26 | Marginal | 21–34°C | 8 kts E, g 14 | 0001–0900L (Marginal, 10 h) ☾; 2000–2300L (Marginal, 4 h) ☾ | 70% | 15% interpolated |
| Mon | 16 Nov 26 | Marginal | 22–35°C | 7 kts ENE, g 13 | 0001–1000L (Marginal, 11 h) ☾; 1900–2000L (Marginal, 2 h) ☾; 2200–2300L (Marginal, 2 h) ☾ | 69% | 15% interpolated |
| Tue | 17 Nov 26 | Marginal | 21–35°C | 5 kts ENE, g 11 | 0001–0500L (Marginal, 6 h) ☾; 0900–2300L (Marginal, 15 h) ☾ | 69% | 16% interpolated |
| Wed | 18 Nov 26 | Marginal | 21–36°C | 6 kts NNE, g 12 | 0001–1100L (Marginal, 12 h) ☾; 2200–2300L (Marginal, 2 h) ☾ | 68% | 8% interpolated |
| Thu | 19 Nov 26 | Marginal | 22–36°C | 6 kts E, g 13 | 0001–0700L (Marginal, 8 h) ☾; 2200–2300L (Marginal, 2 h) ☾ | 68% | |
| Fri | 20 Nov 26 | Marginal | 22–36°C | 6 kts NE, g 11 | 0001–0900L (Marginal, 10 h) ☾; 1100–2300L (Marginal, 13 h) ☾ | 68% | |
| Sat | 21 Nov 26 | Marginal | 22–36°C | 5 kts SE, g 10 | 0001–2300L (Marginal, 24 h) ☾ | 67% | |
| Sun | 22 Nov 26 | Marginal | 23–36°C | 5 kts N, g 11 | 0001–0300L (Marginal, 4 h) ☾; 1100–2300L (Marginal, 13 h) ☾ | 67% |
Today — Mon 9 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: clear, winds up to 7 kts S and temperatures 24–34°C. Flyable windows: 0100–0900L (Marginal, 9 h) and 1900–2200L (Marginal, 4 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L.
| 00–06L | 06–12L | 12–18L | 18–24L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind | B | E | D | C |
| Visibility | A | A | A | A |
| Cloud / ceiling | A | A | A | B |
| Precipitation | A | A | A | A |
| Thunderstorm | D | E | E | E |
| Fog | A | A | · | · |
A Excellent · B Good · C Fair · D Marginal (flyable) · E Poor · F Very Poor · G Unacceptable · (worst condition in each period)
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 27°C | Clear (3%) | 3 kts ESE | 3 kts | 1016 | · - No data | storm 0% · visibility not forecast
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 25 (21–22)°C | Clear (2%) | 3 (2–4) kts E | 4 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 25 (21–22)°C | Clear (3%) | 3 (2–4) kts ENE | 4 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 25 (20–21)°C | Clear (1%) | 4 (1–4) kts ESE | 4 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · CAPE 1210 J/kg
| thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 5. | 0400 | 25 (20–21)°C | Clear (0%) | 3 (1–4) kts SE | 4 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · CAPE 1560 J/kg
| thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 6. | 0500 | 24 (20–21)°C | Clear (1%) | 3 (1–4) kts S | 4 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · CAPE 1520 J/kg
| thunderstorm risk, convective energy, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 24 (19–20)°C | Clear (3%) | 4 (1–4) kts S | 4 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · CAPE 1370 J/kg
| thunderstorm risk, convective energy, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 24 (20–21)°C | Clear (3%) | 4 (1–4) kts S | 4 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · CAPE 1250 J/kg
| thunderstorm risk, convective energy, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 26 (22–23)°C | Clear (1%) | 4 (1–5) kts S | 7 kts | 1018 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 10. | 0900 | 28 (24–27)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (1–5) kts S | 9 kts | 1019 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 9 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 11. | 1000 | 30 (26–30)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (1–5) kts S | 11 kts | 1020 | E - Poor | CAPE 2240 J/kg · gust spread +7 kt
| convective energy, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 12. | 1100 | 31 (27–32)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (1–5) kts SW | 9 kts | 1019 | E - Poor | CAPE 2650 J/kg
| convective energy, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 13. | 1200 | 33 (28–34)°C | Clear (0%) | 5 (1–4) kts SW | 9 kts | 1018 | E - Poor | CAPE 3000 J/kg
| convective energy, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 14. | 1300 | 34 (29–35)°C | Clear (7%) | 5 (1–3) kts WSW | 9 kts | 1018 | E - Poor | CAPE 3310 J/kg
| convective energy, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 15. | 1400 | 34 (29–36)°C | Clear (7%) | 4 (0–3) kts W | 9 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | CAPE 3110 J/kg
| convective energy, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 16. | 1500 | 34 (29–36)°C | Clear (11%) | 4 (1–4) kts NNE | 9 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | CAPE 2920 J/kg
| convective energy, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 17. | 1600 | 34 (29–35)°C | Clear (12%) | 6 (1–6) kts N | 9 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | CAPE 2130 J/kg
| convective energy, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 18. | 1700 | 33 (28–33)°C | Clear (7%) | 6 (1–4) kts NNW | 8 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · CAPE 1920 J/kg
| thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 19. | 1800 | 31 (26–30)°C | Clear (7%) | 3 (1–4) kts W | 5 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | CAPE 2160 J/kg
| convective energy, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 30 (25–28)°C | Clear (7%) | 4 (1–4) kts WSW | 3 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 29 (24–27)°C | Clear (3%) | 4 (1–4) kts SW | 3 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 28 (24–26)°C | Clear (2%) | 4 (1–5) kts SSW | 4 kts | 1018 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 28 (23–25)°C | Clear (5%) | 5 (2–5) kts S | 6 kts | 1019 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 27 (23–25)°C | Mostly clear (26%) | 7 (1–5) kts S | 8 kts | 1019 | E - Poor | CAPE 2710 J/kg
| convective energy, thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 76% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 8% of readings interpolated · first light 0604L · last light 1831L · Moon 0 % illuminated, rises 06:24, sets 18:14.
Tomorrow — Tue 10 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Unacceptable: cloudy, winds up to 6 kts NNE and temperatures 24–34°C. Flyable windows: 0200–0300L (Marginal, 2 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall a deterioration from the previous day.
| 00–06L | 06–12L | 12–18L | 18–24L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind | C | C | D | C |
| Visibility | A | A | A | A |
| Cloud / ceiling | G | G | G | G |
| Precipitation | A | A | A | A |
| Thunderstorm | E | E | E | E |
| Fog | A | A | · | · |
A Excellent · B Good · C Fair · D Marginal (flyable) · E Poor · F Very Poor · G Unacceptable · (worst condition in each period)
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 26 (22–24)°C | Partly cloudy (44%) | 5 (1–6) kts S | 8 kts | 1019 | E - Poor | CAPE 2200 J/kg
| convective energy, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 26 (21–24)°C | Clear (10%) | 5 (1–5) kts SSE | 7 kts | 1018 | E - Poor | CAPE 2080 J/kg
| convective energy, thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 25 (21–23)°C | Clear (10%) | 5 (1–5) kts S | 7 kts | 1018 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · CAPE 1920 J/kg
| thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 4. | 0300 | 25 (20–22)°C | Partly cloudy (46%) | 5 (1–5) kts S | 8 kts | 1018 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · CAPE 1830 J/kg
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 5. | 0400 | 24 (20–22)°C | Cloudy (72%) | 5 (1–6) kts SSE | 7 kts | 1018 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 72%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 6. | 0500 | 24 (20–21)°C | Cloudy (81%) | 3 (1–5) kts SSE | 6 kts | 1018 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 81%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, convective energy, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 24 (20–21)°C | Cloudy (84%) | 3 (1–5) kts SE | 4 kts | 1018 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 84%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, convective energy, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 24 (20–21)°C | Cloudy (85%) | 4 (2–5) kts E | 4 kts | 1018 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 85%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 25 (21–23)°C | Cloudy (65%) | 4 (1–4) kts SE | 6 kts | 1019 | F - Very Poor | cloud 65%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 10. | 0900 | 27 (23–25)°C | Partly cloudy (54%) | 3 (1–4) kts S | 7 kts | 1021 | E - Poor | cloud 54%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 11. | 1000 | 30 (25–28)°C | Partly cloudy (49%) | 3 (1–4) kts SW | 7 kts | 1021 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · CAPE 1990 J/kg
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 12. | 1100 | 31 (26–30)°C | Partly cloudy (53%) | 3 (1–4) kts WSW | 7 kts | 1021 | E - Poor | CAPE 2430 J/kg · cloud 53%
| cloud cover, convective energy, thunderstorm risk |
| 13. | 1200 | 32 (28–33)°C | Cloudy (81%) | 4 (1–3) kts W | 8 kts | 1019 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 81%
| cloud cover, convective energy, thunderstorm risk |
| 14. | 1300 | 34 (28–35)°C | Cloudy (77%) | 5 (1–4) kts WNW | 9 kts | 1018 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 77%
| cloud cover, convective energy, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 15. | 1400 | 34 (29–35)°C | Cloudy (80%) | 5 (1–4) kts N | 9 kts | 1018 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 80%
| cloud cover, convective energy, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 16. | 1500 | 34 (28–35)°C | Cloudy (81%) | 5 (1–5) kts NNE | 9 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 81%
| cloud cover, convective energy, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 17. | 1600 | 34 (28–35)°C | Cloudy (89%) | 6 (1–5) kts NNE | 9 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 89%
| cloud cover, convective energy, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 18. | 1700 | 33 (27–32)°C | Overcast (92%) | 5 (1–4) kts NW | 6 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 92%
| cloud cover, convective energy, thunderstorm risk |
| 19. | 1800 | 31 (26–30)°C | Overcast (94%) | 5 (1–5) kts W | 5 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 94%
| cloud cover, convective energy, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 30 (24–28)°C | Overcast (96%) | 5 (2–5) kts WSW | 5 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 96%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 29 (23–26)°C | Overcast (95%) | 5 (2–7) kts SSW | 6 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 95%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 28 (23–25)°C | Overcast (95%) | 5 (2–6) kts SSW | 7 kts | 1018 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 95%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 28 (22–25)°C | Overcast (96%) | 4 (1–7) kts SSW | 6 kts | 1018 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 96%
| cloud cover, convective energy, thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 27 (22–24)°C | Overcast (94%) | 4 (1–7) kts S | 4 kts | 1018 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 94%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 79% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 9% of readings interpolated · first light 0604L · last light 1831L · Moon 2 % illuminated, rises 07:16, sets 19:02.
Extended Outlook
| Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind | D | D | D | E | F | E | E | E | E | E | D | E |
| Visibility | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A |
| Cloud / ceiling | G | G | G | A | A | A | A | G | G | B | A | D |
| Precipitation | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A |
| Thunderstorm | E | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
| Fog | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A |
| Overall | G | G | G | E | F | E | E | G | G | E | D | E |
A Excellent · B Good · C Fair · D Marginal (flyable) · E Poor · F Very Poor · G Unacceptable · (worst condition in each period)
Wed 11 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Unacceptable: cloudy, winds up to 6 kts ENE and temperatures 24–35°C. Flyable windows: 1900–2200L (Marginal, 4 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 26 (21–23)°C | Overcast (94%) | 3 (2–6) kts SSE | 4 kts | 1018 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 94%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 26 (21–23)°C | Overcast (95%) | 4 (2–6) kts SSE | 6 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 95%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 26 (20–22)°C | Overcast (93%) | 4 (2–5) kts S | 7 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 93%
| cloud cover, convective energy, thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 25 (20–22)°C | Overcast (93%) | 5 (2–5) kts S | 7 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 93%
| cloud cover, convective energy, thunderstorm risk |
| 5. | 0400 | 25 (20–22)°C | Overcast (95%) | 5 (2–5) kts S | 8 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 95%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 6. | 0500 | 25 (19–21)°C | Overcast (92%) | 4 (2–5) kts S | 7 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 92%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 24 (19–21)°C | Overcast (91%) | 3 (1–4) kts SSE | 5 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 91%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 8. | 0700 | 24 (19–21)°C | Overcast (92%) | 3 (1–4) kts SSE | 4 kts | 1018 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 92%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 9. | 0800 | 26 (21–23)°C | Cloudy (85%) | 3 (1–3) kts ESE | 5 kts | 1019 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 85%
| cloud cover, convective energy, thunderstorm risk |
| 10. | 0900 | 28 (23–25)°C | Cloudy (62%) | 2 (1–4) kts SE | 5 kts | 1020 | F - Very Poor | cloud 62%
| cloud cover, convective energy, thunderstorm risk |
| 11. | 1000 | 29 (24–28)°C | Partly cloudy (52%) | 3 (1–4) kts NE | 6 kts | 1021 | E - Poor | CAPE 2490 J/kg · cloud 52%
| cloud cover, convective energy, thunderstorm risk |
| 12. | 1100 | 31 (26–30)°C | Partly cloudy (39%) | 3 (1–4) kts NNW | 7 kts | 1020 | E - Poor | CAPE 2850 J/kg
| convective energy, thunderstorm risk |
| 13. | 1200 | 32 (27–32)°C | Partly cloudy (58%) | 5 (1–5) kts NE | 9 kts | 1019 | E - Poor | CAPE 2820 J/kg · cloud 58%
| cloud cover, convective energy, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 14. | 1300 | 34 (28–34)°C | Partly cloudy (59%) | 5 (2–6) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1018 | E - Poor | cloud 59%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, convective energy, gusts |
| 15. | 1400 | 35 (29–35)°C | Cloudy (64%) | 6 (2–6) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1017 | F - Very Poor | cloud 64%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, convective energy, gusts |
| 16. | 1500 | 35 (29–35)°C | Cloudy (71%) | 6 (2–5) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 71%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 17. | 1600 | 35 (29–34)°C | Cloudy (64%) | 6 (2–5) kts NE | 9 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | cloud 64%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 18. | 1700 | 33 (27–32)°C | Cloudy (71%) | 5 (2–5) kts N | 6 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 71%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 19. | 1800 | 31 (26–29)°C | Cloudy (65%) | 4 (1–5) kts NW | 4 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | cloud 65%
| cloud cover, convective energy, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 29 (24–27)°C | Partly cloudy (51%) | 4 (2–5) kts W | 3 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · cloud 51%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 28 (23–25)°C | Partly cloudy (48%) | 4 (1–5) kts WSW | 5 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · cloud 48%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 27 (22–25)°C | Partly cloudy (44%) | 4 (1–5) kts ENE | 5 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · cloud 44%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 27 (21–24)°C | Partly cloudy (48%) | 5 (1–5) kts SE | 6 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · cloud 48%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 26 (20–24)°C | Partly cloudy (55%) | 4 (1–5) kts SE | 6 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | cloud 55%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 75% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 14% of readings interpolated · first light 0604L · last light 1831L · Moon 5 % illuminated, rises 08:08, sets 19:52.
Thu 12 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: partly cloudy, winds up to 6 kts S and temperatures 22–34°C. Flyable windows: 1000–2300L (Marginal, 14 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall an improvement on the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 25 (20–23)°C | Partly cloudy (57%) | 4 (2–5) kts ESE | 8 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | cloud 57%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 25 (19–23)°C | Cloudy (60%) | 4 (2–5) kts E | 7 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | cloud 60%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 3. | 0200 | 24 (19–22)°C | Cloudy (65%) | 3 (2–5) kts ENE | 6 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | cloud 65%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 4. | 0300 | 24 (18–22)°C | Cloudy (62%) | 3 (2–4) kts NE | 5 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | cloud 62%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 5. | 0400 | 23 (17–21)°C | Partly cloudy (54%) | 3 (2–4) kts ENE | 5 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | cloud 54%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 6. | 0500 | 22 (17–21)°C | Cloudy (62%) | 3 (2–4) kts ENE | 6 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | cloud 62%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 22 (17–20)°C | Cloudy (76%) | 3 (2–4) kts ENE | 5 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 76%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 23 (17–21)°C | Cloudy (81%) | 3 (2–5) kts E | 4 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 81%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 25 (19–22)°C | Cloudy (74%) | 3 (1–4) kts ESE | 5 kts | 1018 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 74%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 10. | 0900 | 27 (22–24)°C | Partly cloudy (58%) | 4 (1–4) kts S | 7 kts | 1019 | E - Poor | cloud 58%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 11. | 1000 | 29 (24–27)°C | Partly cloudy (49%) | 4 (2–5) kts S | 8 kts | 1019 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · cloud 49%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 12. | 1100 | 31 (26–29)°C | Partly cloudy (44%) | 5 (1–4) kts S | 9 kts | 1019 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · CAPE 1050 J/kg
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, convective energy, gusts |
| 13. | 1200 | 32 (27–31)°C | Partly cloudy (43%) | 6 (1–4) kts S | 9 kts | 1019 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · CAPE 1200 J/kg
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, convective energy, gusts |
| 14. | 1300 | 33 (28–32)°C | Partly cloudy (45%) | 5 (1–4) kts S | 9 kts | 1018 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · CAPE 1180 J/kg
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, convective energy, gusts |
| 15. | 1400 | 34 (28–33)°C | Partly cloudy (44%) | 4 (0–4) kts SSW | 9 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · cloud 44%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 16. | 1500 | 34 (29–32)°C | Partly cloudy (43%) | 4 (1–4) kts W | 8 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · cloud 43%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 17. | 1600 | 34 (28–31)°C | Partly cloudy (41%) | 4 (1–4) kts NNW | 8 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 18. | 1700 | 32 (27–30)°C | Partly cloudy (37%) | 5 (1–4) kts NW | 8 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 19. | 1800 | 30 (25–28)°C | Mostly clear (24%) | 5 (2–4) kts WNW | 8 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 29 (23–26)°C | Mostly clear (18%) | 5 (2–4) kts WNW | 9 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 21. | 2000 | 28 (22–25)°C | Mostly clear (17%) | 5 (1–4) kts SW | 8 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 27 (22–24)°C | Clear (12%) | 4 (1–3) kts E | 8 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 27 (21–23)°C | Clear (11%) | 3 (1–4) kts ENE | 7 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 26 (20–23)°C | Mostly clear (18%) | 3 (1–4) kts NE | 6 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 73% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 19% of readings interpolated · first light 0604L · last light 1830L · Moon 9 % illuminated, rises 09:01, sets 20:43.
Fri 13 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: partly cloudy, winds up to 5 kts NNW and temperatures 22–33°C. Flyable windows: 0001–0100L (Marginal, 2 h) and 1500–2300L (Marginal, 9 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 25 (19–22)°C | Partly cloudy (39%) | 3 (1–4) kts NE | 5 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 24 (19–22)°C | Partly cloudy (46%) | 4 (1–5) kts ENE | 5 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · cloud 46%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 23 (18–21)°C | Partly cloudy (53%) | 4 (2–5) kts ENE | 6 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | cloud 53%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 23 (18–21)°C | Cloudy (75%) | 5 (2–5) kts E | 7 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 75%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 5. | 0400 | 23 (17–20)°C | Cloudy (83%) | 5 (2–6) kts E | 7 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 83%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 6. | 0500 | 23 (17–20)°C | Cloudy (84%) | 5 (2–5) kts E | 8 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 84%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 22 (16–19)°C | Cloudy (86%) | 5 (2–5) kts E | 7 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 86%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 22 (16–20)°C | Cloudy (88%) | 4 (2–5) kts ESE | 7 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 88%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 24 (19–22)°C | Cloudy (86%) | 4 (2–4) kts ESE | 8 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 86%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 10. | 0900 | 26 (22–24)°C | Cloudy (88%) | 4 (1–5) kts SE | 8 kts | 1018 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 88%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 11. | 1000 | 29 (24–27)°C | Cloudy (89%) | 4 (1–5) kts SSE | 8 kts | 1019 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 89%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 12. | 1100 | 30 (26–29)°C | Cloudy (87%) | 4 (1–5) kts S | 8 kts | 1019 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 87%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 13. | 1200 | 31 (27–32)°C | Cloudy (71%) | 5 (1–5) kts S | 9 kts | 1018 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 71%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 14. | 1300 | 33 (28–33)°C | Cloudy (72%) | 4 (1–5) kts SSW | 9 kts | 1018 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 72%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 33 (29–34)°C | Cloudy (63%) | 5 (1–4) kts SW | 9 kts | 1017 | F - Very Poor | cloud 63%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 16. | 1500 | 33 (29–34)°C | Partly cloudy (41%) | 5 (1–5) kts W | 8 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 17. | 1600 | 33 (28–33)°C | Mostly clear (32%) | 5 (1–6) kts NNW | 8 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 18. | 1700 | 32 (27–30)°C | Mostly clear (20%) | 5 (1–5) kts NNW | 8 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 19. | 1800 | 30 (25–28)°C | Clear (8%) | 5 (1–4) kts NNW | 8 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 28 (23–26)°C | Clear (2%) | 5 (1–4) kts NNW | 7 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 27 (22–24)°C | Clear (2%) | 4 (1–4) kts N | 7 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 27 (21–24)°C | Clear (2%) | 4 (1–4) kts N | 6 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 26 (20–23)°C | Clear (3%) | 4 (0–5) kts N | 5 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 25 (19–22)°C | Clear (4%) | 4 (1–5) kts NNE | 6 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 74% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 20% of readings interpolated · first light 0605L · last light 1830L · Moon 15 % illuminated, rises 09:51, sets 21:35.
Sat 14 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: clear, winds up to 7 kts ESE, gusting 14 kts and temperatures 21–33°C. Flyable windows: 0001–0900L (Marginal, 10 h) and 1900–2300L (Marginal, 5 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 24 (18–21)°C | Clear (7%) | 4 (2–5) kts NE | 6 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 23 (17–21)°C | Clear (8%) | 4 (3–6) kts NE | 7 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 22 (17–20)°C | Clear (1%) | 5 (3–7) kts NE | 8 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 2%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 22 (17–19)°C | Clear (1%) | 6 (3–7) kts NE | 9 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 2% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 5. | 0400 | 22 (16–19)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (3–7) kts NE | 10 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 2% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 6. | 0500 | 21 (16–18)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (3–7) kts NE | 10 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 2% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 21 (15–18)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (3–7) kts NE | 10 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 2% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 21 (16–18)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (3–7) kts NE | 10 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 23 (18–20)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (2–7) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 2% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 10. | 0900 | 26 (22–23)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (3–7) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1018 | D - Marginal | storm 2% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 11. | 1000 | 29 (24–26)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (3–8) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1019 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 12. | 1100 | 29 (26–29)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (3–7) kts E | 13 kts | 1018 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 13. | 1200 | 31 (28–31)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (3–6) kts ESE | 13 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 14. | 1300 | 32 (29–32)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (3–6) kts ESE | 14 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +6 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 15. | 1400 | 33 (29–33)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (2–6) kts ESE | 13 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 16. | 1500 | 33 (28–33)°C | Clear (1%) | 6 (2–5) kts E | 13 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 17. | 1600 | 32 (27–33)°C | Clear (1%) | 6 (1–5) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 18. | 1700 | 31 (26–31)°C | Clear (1%) | 6 (1–4) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 19. | 1800 | 29 (24–28)°C | Clear (2%) | 5 (1–5) kts NE | 12 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · gust spread +6 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 28 (23–25)°C | Clear (2%) | 6 (1–4) kts NNE | 11 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 21. | 2000 | 27 (22–24)°C | Clear (1%) | 5 (1–4) kts NNE | 10 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 2% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 22. | 2100 | 26 (21–23)°C | Clear (1%) | 5 (1–4) kts NNE | 10 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 2% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 23. | 2200 | 26 (20–23)°C | Clear (1%) | 6 (2–4) kts NE | 9 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 2% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 24. | 2300 | 25 (20–22)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (2–5) kts NE | 9 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 2% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
Confidence: 71% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 15% of readings interpolated · first light 0605L · last light 1830L · Moon 23 % illuminated, rises 10:39, sets 22:26.
Sun 15 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: clear, winds up to 8 kts E, gusting 14 kts and temperatures 21–34°C. Flyable windows: 0001–0900L (Marginal, 10 h) and 2000–2300L (Marginal, 4 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 24 (19–22)°C | Clear (0%) | 5 (3–5) kts NE | 8 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 2%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 23 (18–21)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (3–6) kts NE | 8 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 23 (18–21)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (3–6) kts NE | 8 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 2%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 22 (17–20)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (4–6) kts NE | 8 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 2%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 5. | 0400 | 22 (16–20)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (4–7) kts NE | 9 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 2% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 6. | 0500 | 22 (16–19)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (4–7) kts NE | 9 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 2% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 21 (16–18)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (4–7) kts NE | 9 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 2% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 22 (17–19)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (3–7) kts NE | 10 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 24 (18–21)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (3–7) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 2% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 10. | 0900 | 26 (21–24)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (3–7) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 2% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 11. | 1000 | 29 (23–28)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (3–8) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 12. | 1100 | 31 (26–30)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (3–7) kts E | 13 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 13. | 1200 | 33 (28–32)°C | Clear (0%) | 8 (3–7) kts E | 14 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 14. | 1300 | 34 (29–34)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (2–7) kts E | 14 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 15. | 1400 | 34 (30–34)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (2–6) kts E | 14 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 16. | 1500 | 34 (29–34)°C | Clear (0%) | 5 (2–5) kts E | 14 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | gust spread +8 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 17. | 1600 | 33 (28–34)°C | Clear (0%) | 5 (1–4) kts ENE | 13 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 18. | 1700 | 31 (27–31)°C | Clear (0%) | 5 (1–4) kts NE | 12 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 19. | 1800 | 30 (25–28)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (1–4) kts NNE | 12 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 29 (24–27)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (1–4) kts NNW | 11 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust spread +7 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 21. | 2000 | 28 (23–25)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (1–3) kts N | 10 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 2% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 22. | 2100 | 26 (22–24)°C | Clear (0%) | 3 (1–3) kts N | 9 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 2% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 23. | 2200 | 25 (21–24)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (1–3) kts NNE | 9 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 2% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 24. | 2300 | 24 (20–23)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (1–3) kts NNE | 8 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 2%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 70% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 15% of readings interpolated · first light 0605L · last light 1830L · Moon 31 % illuminated, rises 11:24, sets 23:15.
Mon 16 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: clear, winds up to 7 kts ENE, gusting 13 kts and temperatures 22–35°C. Flyable windows: 0001–1000L (Marginal, 11 h), 1900–2000L (Marginal, 2 h) and 2200–2300L (Marginal, 2 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 24 (19–23)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (2–4) kts NE | 7 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 2%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 24 (spread 23–24)°C | Clear (0%) | 5 (spread 4–5) kts NE | 8 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 24 (spread 23–25)°C | Clear (1%) | 5 (spread 4–5) kts NE | 9 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 4. | 0300 | 23 (spread 22–24)°C | Clear (2%) | 5 (spread 4–5) kts NE | 9 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 5. | 0400 | 23 (spread 21–24)°C | Clear (3%) | 5 (spread 5–6) kts NE | 9 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 6. | 0500 | 22 (spread 20–24)°C | Clear (4%) | 5 (spread 5–6) kts NE | 9 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 22 (spread 20–23)°C | Clear (6%) | 6 kts NE | 9 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 22 (spread 20–23)°C | Clear (5%) | 6 (spread 5–6) kts NE | 9 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 24 (spread 22–25)°C | Clear (5%) | 6 (spread 5–6) kts NE | 10 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 10. | 0900 | 26 (spread 24–28)°C | Clear (3%) | 6 (spread 5–6) kts NE | 10 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 11. | 1000 | 29 (spread 27–30)°C | Clear (2%) | 6 (spread 5–6) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 12. | 1100 | 31 (spread 30–32)°C | Clear (1%) | 6 (spread 5–6) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 13. | 1200 | 34 (spread 33–34)°C | Clear (1%) | 7 (spread 6–8) kts ENE | 13 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 14. | 1300 | 35 (spread 34–36)°C | Clear (1%) | 7 (spread 6–8) kts ENE | 13 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 35 (spread 34–36)°C | Clear (1%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts ENE | 13 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 16. | 1500 | 34 (spread 33–35)°C | Clear (1%) | 5 (spread 4–6) kts ENE | 13 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 17. | 1600 | 34 (spread 32–35)°C | Clear (1%) | 4 kts NE | 10 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 18. | 1700 | 32 (spread 31–33)°C | Clear (1%) | 3 (spread 3–4) kts NNE | 10 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust spread +6 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 19. | 1800 | 31 (spread 29–32)°C | Clear (1%) | 3 kts N | 10 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust spread +7 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 20. | 1900 | 29 (spread 28–31)°C | Clear (1%) | 3 (spread 3–4) kts NNW | 9 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 21. | 2000 | 29 (spread 27–30)°C | Clear (1%) | 3 (spread 3–4) kts NNW | 9 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 22. | 2100 | 28 (spread 27–29)°C | Clear (0%) | 3 (spread 3–4) kts N | 10 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust spread +7 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 23. | 2200 | 27 (spread 26–28)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (spread 3–4) kts N | 9 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 24. | 2300 | 26 (spread 25–27)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 kts NNE | 8 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 69% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 15% of readings interpolated · first light 0606L · last light 1830L · Moon 40 % illuminated, rises 12:06.
Tue 17 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: clear, winds up to 5 kts ENE, gusting 11 kts and temperatures 21–35°C. Flyable windows: 0001–0500L (Marginal, 6 h) and 0900–2300L (Marginal, 15 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 25 (spread 24–26)°C | Clear (0%) | 3 (spread 3–4) kts NNE | 7 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 24 (spread 24–25)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 kts NE | 6 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 24 (spread 23–25)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 kts NE | 7 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 23 (spread 22–24)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 kts NE | 8 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 5. | 0400 | 22 (spread 21–24)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (spread 3–4) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 6. | 0500 | 22 (spread 20–23)°C | Clear (1%) | 4 (spread 3–4) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1012 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 21 (spread 20–23)°C | Clear (2%) | 4 (spread 3–5) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1012 | E - Poor | gust spread +7 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 21 (spread 20–23)°C | Clear (2%) | 4 (spread 3–5) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1012 | E - Poor | gust spread +8 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 23 (spread 22–25)°C | Clear (2%) | 4 (spread 3–5) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust spread +7 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 10. | 0900 | 26 (spread 24–27)°C | Clear (2%) | 4 (spread 3–5) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 11. | 1000 | 28 (spread 27–30)°C | Clear (1%) | 4 (spread 3–5) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 12. | 1100 | 31 (spread 30–32)°C | Clear (2%) | 4 (spread 3–5) kts ENE | 8 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 13. | 1200 | 33 (spread 32–34)°C | Clear (3%) | 5 (spread 4–5) kts ENE | 8 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 14. | 1300 | 35 (spread 34–36)°C | Clear (3%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts NE | 8 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 15. | 1400 | 35 (spread 34–35)°C | Clear (4%) | 4 (spread 3–5) kts NE | 7 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 16. | 1500 | 34 (spread 33–35)°C | Clear (4%) | 4 (spread 3–4) kts NE | 8 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 17. | 1600 | 33 (spread 32–34)°C | Clear (4%) | 4 (spread 3–4) kts NNE | 8 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 18. | 1700 | 32 (spread 31–33)°C | Clear (3%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts N | 8 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 19. | 1800 | 31 (spread 30–32)°C | Clear (2%) | 3 (spread 3–4) kts NNW | 8 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust spread +5 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 20. | 1900 | 29 (spread 29–31)°C | Clear (1%) | 4 (spread 3–4) kts NW | 8 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 29 (spread 28–30)°C | Clear (1%) | 4 (spread 3–4) kts NNW | 8 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 28 (spread 27–29)°C | Clear (1%) | 4 (spread 3–4) kts NNE | 7 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 27 (spread 26–28)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (spread 3–4) kts NE | 7 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 26 (spread 25–27)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts NE | 7 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 69% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 16% of readings interpolated · first light 0606L · last light 1831L · Moon 50 % illuminated, rises 12:46, sets 00:03.
Wed 18 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: partly cloudy, winds up to 6 kts NNE, gusting 12 kts and temperatures 21–36°C. Flyable windows: 0001–1100L (Marginal, 12 h) and 2200–2300L (Marginal, 2 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 25 (spread 24–26)°C | Clear (1%) | 4 (spread 3–4) kts NE | 7 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 24 (spread 23–25)°C | Clear (1%) | 4 kts ENE | 6 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 24 (spread 22–25)°C | Clear (2%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts ENE | 6 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 23 (spread 21–24)°C | Clear (4%) | 5 (spread 4–5) kts ENE | 7 kts | 1012 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 5. | 0400 | 22 (spread 20–24)°C | Clear (5%) | 5 (spread 4–5) kts NE | 8 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 6. | 0500 | 22 (spread 20–23)°C | Clear (5%) | 5 (spread 4–5) kts NE | 8 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 21 (spread 20–23)°C | Clear (4%) | 5 (spread 5–6) kts NE | 9 kts | 1012 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 21 (spread 20–23)°C | Clear (4%) | 5 (spread 5–6) kts NE | 10 kts | 1012 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 24 (spread 22–25)°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 5 (spread 4–6) kts NE | 10 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 10. | 0900 | 26 (spread 24–28)°C | Mostly clear (24%) | 5 (spread 4–6) kts NE | 10 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 11. | 1000 | 29 (spread 27–30)°C | Partly cloudy (35%) | 5 (spread 4–6) kts NE | 11 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 12. | 1100 | 32 (spread 31–32)°C | Partly cloudy (44%) | 5 (spread 4–5) kts NE | 11 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · cloud 44%
| ⚠ cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 13. | 1200 | 34 (spread 33–35)°C | Partly cloudy (53%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts NE | 9 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | cloud 53%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 14. | 1300 | 36 (spread 35–37)°C | Cloudy (60%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts NE | 9 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | cloud 60%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 15. | 1400 | 36°C | Cloudy (63%) | 6 kts NE | 10 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | cloud 63%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 16. | 1500 | 35°C | Cloudy (68%) | 6 kts NE | 10 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | cloud 68%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 17. | 1600 | 34°C | Cloudy (71%) | 6 kts NNE | 10 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 71%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 18. | 1700 | 33°C | Cloudy (72%) | 6 kts NNE | 10 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 72%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 19. | 1800 | 32°C | Cloudy (73%) | 6 kts N | 10 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 73%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 20. | 1900 | 30°C | Cloudy (70%) | 6 kts NNW | 9 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 70%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 21. | 2000 | 29°C | Cloudy (63%) | 6 kts N | 9 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | cloud 63%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 22. | 2100 | 28°C | Partly cloudy (52%) | 5 kts NNE | 12 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | cloud 52% · gust 12 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 28°C | Partly cloudy (41%) | 5 kts NNE | 11 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 24. | 2300 | 27°C | Mostly clear (29%) | 5 kts NE | 11 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
Confidence: 68% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 8% of readings interpolated · first light 0606L · last light 1831L · Moon 60 % illuminated, rises 13:25, sets 00:50.
Thu 19 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: partly cloudy, winds up to 6 kts E, gusting 13 kts and temperatures 22–36°C. Flyable windows: 0001–0700L (Marginal, 8 h) and 2200–2300L (Marginal, 2 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 26°C | Mostly clear (20%) | 4 kts NE | 10 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 2. | 0100 | 25°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 5 kts NE | 10 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 3. | 0200 | 24°C | Clear (12%) | 5 kts NE | 10 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 4. | 0300 | 24°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 5 kts NE | 10 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 5. | 0400 | 23°C | Mostly clear (14%) | 6 kts NE | 10 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 6. | 0500 | 23°C | Mostly clear (15%) | 6 kts NE | 11 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 22°C | Mostly clear (15%) | 6 kts NE | 11 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 22°C | Mostly clear (17%) | 6 kts NE | 11 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 25°C | Mostly clear (24%) | 6 kts NE | 12 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 10. | 0900 | 27°C | Partly cloudy (34%) | 6 kts NE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 11. | 1000 | 30°C | Partly cloudy (44%) | 5 kts ENE | 13 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 12. | 1100 | 32°C | Partly cloudy (56%) | 5 kts ENE | 11 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | cloud 56%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 13. | 1200 | 34°C | Cloudy (67%) | 6 kts E | 12 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | cloud 67%
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 14. | 1300 | 36°C | Cloudy (74%) | 6 kts E | 12 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 74%
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 36°C | Cloudy (79%) | 6 kts E | 12 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 79%
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 16. | 1500 | 35°C | Cloudy (83%) | 5 kts E | 12 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 83%
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 17. | 1600 | 34°C | Cloudy (86%) | 5 kts ENE | 12 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 86%
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 18. | 1700 | 33°C | Cloudy (87%) | 5 kts NNE | 11 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 87%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 19. | 1800 | 31°C | Cloudy (89%) | 4 kts N | 10 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 89%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 20. | 1900 | 30°C | Cloudy (87%) | 4 kts NNW | 10 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 87%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 21. | 2000 | 29°C | Cloudy (78%) | 4 kts NNE | 9 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 78%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 22. | 2100 | 28°C | Cloudy (63%) | 4 kts NNE | 8 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | cloud 63%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 27°C | Partly cloudy (49%) | 4 kts NNE | 7 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · cloud 49%
| ⚠ cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 27°C | Partly cloudy (37%) | 4 kts NNE | 8 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 68% — data for 24 of 24 hours · first light 0607L · last light 1831L · Moon 69 % illuminated, rises 14:03, sets 01:37.
Fri 20 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: mostly clear, winds up to 6 kts NE and temperatures 22–36°C. Flyable windows: 0001–0900L (Marginal, 10 h) and 1100–2300L (Marginal, 13 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 26°C | Mostly clear (29%) | 4 kts NE | 8 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 25°C | Mostly clear (22%) | 4 kts NE | 7 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 24°C | Mostly clear (18%) | 4 kts NE | 8 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 24°C | Mostly clear (15%) | 5 kts NE | 8 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 5. | 0400 | 23°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 5 kts NE | 9 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 6. | 0500 | 23°C | Clear (11%) | 5 kts NE | 10 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 22°C | Clear (10%) | 6 kts NE | 11 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 22°C | Clear (9%) | 6 kts NE | 11 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 25°C | Clear (9%) | 6 kts NE | 11 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 10. | 0900 | 27°C | Clear (11%) | 5 kts ENE | 11 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 11. | 1000 | 30°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 4 kts ENE | 11 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust spread +6 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 12. | 1100 | 32°C | Mostly clear (15%) | 4 kts ENE | 10 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 13. | 1200 | 34°C | Mostly clear (16%) | 5 kts ENE | 8 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 14. | 1300 | 36°C | Mostly clear (16%) | 4 kts E | 8 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 15. | 1400 | 36°C | Mostly clear (15%) | 4 kts ENE | 8 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 16. | 1500 | 35°C | Clear (12%) | 4 kts ENE | 8 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 17. | 1600 | 34°C | Clear (11%) | 4 kts NNE | 8 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 18. | 1700 | 33°C | Clear (9%) | 4 kts NNE | 8 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 19. | 1800 | 31°C | Clear (9%) | 4 kts N | 8 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 30°C | Clear (8%) | 4 kts N | 7 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 29°C | Clear (7%) | 4 kts N | 7 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 29°C | Clear (6%) | 3 kts N | 6 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 28°C | Clear (6%) | 3 kts NNE | 6 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 27°C | Clear (6%) | 3 kts NE | 5 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 68% — data for 24 of 24 hours · first light 0607L · last light 1831L · Moon 79 % illuminated, rises 14:43, sets 02:24.
Sat 21 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: clear, winds up to 5 kts SE and temperatures 22–36°C. Flyable windows: 0001–2300L (Marginal, 24 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 26°C | Clear (7%) | 2 kts NE | 5 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 25°C | Clear (8%) | 2 kts ENE | 6 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 25°C | Clear (9%) | 2 kts ENE | 6 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 24°C | Clear (9%) | 2 kts E | 7 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust spread +4 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 5. | 0400 | 23°C | Clear (11%) | 3 kts E | 7 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 6. | 0500 | 23°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 3 kts ESE | 8 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust spread +5 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, wind shear, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 22°C | Mostly clear (16%) | 4 kts ESE | 9 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 22°C | Mostly clear (17%) | 4 kts ESE | 9 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 24°C | Mostly clear (16%) | 4 kts ESE | 10 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 10. | 0900 | 27°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 4 kts ESE | 10 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 11. | 1000 | 29°C | Clear (10%) | 4 kts ESE | 9 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 12. | 1100 | 32°C | Clear (7%) | 3 kts ESE | 7 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 13. | 1200 | 34°C | Clear (4%) | 4 kts ESE | 7 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 14. | 1300 | 36°C | Clear (2%) | 4 kts SE | 7 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 15. | 1400 | 35°C | Clear (2%) | 4 kts SE | 7 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 16. | 1500 | 35°C | Clear (2%) | 4 kts SE | 7 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 17. | 1600 | 34°C | Clear (2%) | 4 kts SE | 7 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 18. | 1700 | 33°C | Clear (2%) | 5 kts SE | 7 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 19. | 1800 | 32°C | Clear (2%) | 5 kts SE | 7 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 30°C | Clear (2%) | 5 kts NW | 7 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 30°C | Clear (2%) | 4 kts ESE | 8 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 29°C | Clear (3%) | 3 kts ESE | 8 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust spread +4 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 23. | 2200 | 28°C | Clear (3%) | 3 kts NNW | 7 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 27°C | Clear (3%) | 3 kts NE | 7 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 67% — data for 24 of 24 hours · first light 0607L · last light 1831L · Moon 87 % illuminated, rises 15:26, sets 03:14.
Sun 22 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: mostly clear, winds up to 5 kts N, gusting 11 kts and temperatures 23–36°C. Flyable windows: 0001–0300L (Marginal, 4 h) and 1100–2300L (Marginal, 13 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 26°C | Clear (3%) | 3 kts NE | 7 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 25°C | Clear (4%) | 3 kts NE | 7 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 25°C | Clear (6%) | 3 kts NE | 7 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 24°C | Clear (9%) | 3 kts ENE | 8 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust spread +5 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 5. | 0400 | 23°C | Clear (11%) | 2 kts E | 9 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust spread +7 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 6. | 0500 | 23°C | Clear (12%) | 2 kts ESE | 10 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust spread +7 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 7. | 0600 | 23°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 3 kts ESE | 11 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust spread +7 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 8. | 0700 | 23°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 3 kts ESE | 11 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust spread +8 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts, fog risk 16 % at dawn |
| 9. | 0800 | 25°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 3 kts SE | 11 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust spread +8 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 10. | 0900 | 27°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 3 kts SE | 11 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust spread +8 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 11. | 1000 | 30°C | Mostly clear (14%) | 3 kts N | 11 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust spread +8 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 12. | 1100 | 32°C | Mostly clear (15%) | 3 kts N | 8 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust spread +5 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 13. | 1200 | 34°C | Mostly clear (16%) | 5 kts NNE | 8 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 14. | 1300 | 36°C | Mostly clear (16%) | 5 kts NNE | 8 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 15. | 1400 | 35°C | Mostly clear (15%) | 5 kts N | 8 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 16. | 1500 | 35°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 5 kts N | 8 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 17. | 1600 | 34°C | Clear (12%) | 5 kts N | 8 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 18. | 1700 | 33°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 5 kts N | 8 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 19. | 1800 | 32°C | Mostly clear (17%) | 4 kts NNW | 8 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 30°C | Mostly clear (20%) | 4 kts NNW | 8 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 29°C | Mostly clear (26%) | 4 kts N | 7 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 29°C | Partly cloudy (33%) | 3 kts N | 6 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 28°C | Partly cloudy (42%) | 3 kts NNE | 7 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 27°C | Partly cloudy (49%) | 3 kts NE | 6 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · cloud 49%
| ⚠ cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 67% — data for 24 of 24 hours · first light 0608L · last light 1831L · Moon 93 % illuminated, rises 16:12, sets 04:07.
TAF
No TAF available for this location.
Imagery
Source panel
| Source | Accuracy | Skill n | Temp °C | Wind kt | Visibility | Storm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) |
| Open-Meteo Ensemble (ECMWF IFS + GEFS) | ≈ 1.1 | 2353 | 20–22 | 2–3 | — | 0 % |
| Met.no (Yr) | ≈ 1.1 | 1850 | 21–22 | 3–5 | — | 0 % |
| Open-Meteo | ≈ 1.1 | 5330 | 21–22 | 2–4 | 10+ km | 0 % |
| OpenWeather | ≈ 1.1 | 840 | 25 | 1 | 10+ km | 0 % |
| Tomorrow.io | ▲ 1.1 | 2407 | 24–26 | 2–3 | 10+ km | 0 % |
| Visual Crossing | ▲ 1.1 | 4534 | 24–25 | 2–3 | 10+ km | 0 % |
Each source's own raw values, min–max over the next 6 hours from the issue hour (before any weighting or bias correction). — means the source does not publish that metric in the window. Wide gaps between rows are real disagreement; the forecast above weights sources by measured skill.
Reading this report
Grades: each hour carries one grade, set by its WORST factor. The bands below are the thresholds in force for this report (Settings); a value in a band earns that grade, and "-" means the factor never produces that grade. Cloud is graded on the worse of cover and ceiling. The Driver column names the limiting factor with its value; open it in the web report for the boundary and sources.
| Grade | Cloud cover | Cloud ceiling | Visibility | Wind | Gust | Rain chance | Thunderstorm probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) |
| A Excellent | ≤ 17.1% | ≥ 30000 ft | ≥ 8000 m | < 3 kt | < 3 kt | < 5% | 0% |
| B Good | 17.1–34.3% | 26000–30000 ft | 6666.7–8000 m | 3–6 kt | 3–6 kt | 5–10% | - |
| C Fair | 34.3–42.9% | 24000–26000 ft | 5333.3–6666.7 m | 6–9 kt | 6–9 kt | 10–15% | - |
| D Marginal | 42.9–51.4% | 22000–24000 ft | 4000–5333.3 m | 9–12 kt | 9–12 kt | 15–20% | >0–15% |
| E Poor | 51.4–60% | 16000–22000 ft | 2666.7–4000 m | 12–15 kt | 12–15 kt | 20–25% | 15–30% |
| F Very Poor | 60–68.6% | 10000–16000 ft | 1333.3–2666.7 m | 15–18 kt | 15–18 kt | 25–30% | 30–60% |
| G Unacceptable | > 68.6% | < 10000 ft | < 1333.3 m | ≥ 18 kt | ≥ 18 kt | ≥ 30% | > 60% |
Flight windows: a window is at least 2 consecutive hours graded Marginal or better; an hour with insufficient data never counts toward one. ☾ marks a window outside first-to-last light.
Time: hours are local time (WAT, UTC+1) unless suffixed Z, which is UTC (TAF, METAR and issue times). Local midnight is labelled 0001.
Units: temperature °C · wind and gusts knots · visibility metres (km in text) · cloud ceiling feet · cloud cover % · rain chance and thunderstorm probability % · QNH hPa (altimeter setting at the field) · CAPE J/kg. A figure like "28 (26–30)°C" gives the p10–p90 range; "spread" marks disagreement between sources.
Symbols: ▲ better than the pool · ▽ worse (only when the 95% interval excludes the pool) · ≈ not distinguishable from the pool · unmarked = unproven (accuracy is measured against METAR and SYNOP observations). ⚠ on a remark means a low-confidence hour; a ⚠ paragraph on the first page is a convective-warning or data-age advisory. ⚡ is lightning observed by satellite near the field (©EUMETSAT).
Hourly glyphs: the wind arrow points the way the air moves (a north wind is ↓, an east wind ←); cloud cover shows as ☀ ◔ ◑ ◕ ☁ (clear, few, scattered, broken, overcast); a shaded hour label is wholly before first light or after last light.
Terms: "No data" - no source forecast the hour, or a core group (cloud, visibility, wind) is missing and the hour could still be flyable; missing data is never given a good grade. "Low-confidence" - few or weak sources behind the load-bearing metrics; treat the grade as indicative. "Insufficient data" - too little to grade at all. "Estimated" (est.) - the value is derived, not reported by a source (dust visibility, cloud base, gusts); it is declared where used and weighted at half. "Derived" - an hour interpolated from a coarser (3-hourly or daily) source, weighted at half and never used to score accuracy.
Data provenance
| Source | Fetched (Z) | Age | Skill n | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) |
| Open-Meteo Ensemble (ECMWF IFS + GEFS) | 9 Nov 00:20Z | 5 min | 2353 | ≈ 1.1 |
| Foreca | 9 Nov 00:20Z | 4 min | 410 | ▲ 1.1 |
| Met.no (Yr) | 9 Nov 00:20Z | 4 min | 1850 | ≈ 1.1 |
| Open-Meteo | 9 Nov 00:19Z | 6 min | 5330 | ≈ 1.1 |
| OpenWeather | 9 Nov 00:21Z | 4 min | 840 | ≈ 1.1 |
| Tomorrow.io | 9 Nov 00:21Z | 3 min | 2407 | ▲ 1.1 |
| Visual Crossing | 9 Nov 00:19Z | 6 min | 4534 | ▲ 1.1 |
Corrections applied (detailed under Learned corrections on the first page): skill weighting, bias correction, hour-of-day bias, cloud-base estimate, probability calibration, fog risk, climatology bounds, skill blend.
How accurate have we been
Measured against observations (METAR/SYNOP), minna only. Verification table computed 2026-11-08. Mean absolute error (MAE): lower is better; "beats persistence" compares the best source with "it will stay as it is now" on the same hours.
| Metric | Best source | Best MAE | Typical MAE | Persistence MAE | Beats persistence by | Pairs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) |
| Temperature (°C) | foreca | 0.9 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 78 % | 177 |
| Dew point (°C) | accuweather | 1.3 | 4.3 | 2.6 | -30 % | 35 |
| Wind speed (kt) | gem | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 22 % | 760 |
| Visibility (m) | visualcrossing | 178 | 277 | 1269 | -1 % | 1570 |
| Cloud cover (%) | accuweather | 16 | 49 | 9 | - | 35 |
Learned bias (forecast minus observed; positive = sources run high), mean over scored sources, by local time of day. These are corrected for before sources are averaged.
| Metric | Overall | Night | Morning | Afternoon | Evening | Pairs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) |
| Temperature (°C) | -3.2 | -3.1 | -3.0 | -3.1 | -3.5 | 16364 |
| Dew point (°C) | -4.2 | -3.5 | -3.7 | -4.1 | -4.8 | 15410 |
| Wind speed (kt) | -1.5 | -0.3 | -1.1 | -2.3 | -1.3 | 16382 |
Not yet available: Scores are decayed over the verification window (half-life 14 days); separate last-7-day and last-30-day windows are not stored. Bias is the current learned value; the history needed for a trend over time is not stored. Flight-window hit / bust / miss is not yet recorded.