Gusau — 14-Day Forecast
DNGU · issued 9 Nov 26 00:25Z
Sources used (7): Open-Meteo Ensemble (ECMWF IFS + GEFS)▲ 1.4 Foreca▽ 0.8 Met.no (Yr)▲ 1.2 Open-Meteo≈ 1.0 OpenWeather≈ 1.0 Tomorrow.io▲ 1.2 Visual Crossing≈ 1.0
▲ better than the pool · ▽ worse (only when the 95% interval excludes the pool) · ≈ not distinguishable from the pool · unmarked = unproven (accuracy is measured against METAR and SYNOP observations)
Mon9 Nov 26
·DDDDDDDDDEFGGGGGFEDDDDD
0100–0900L (Marginal, 9 h) ☾ 1900–2300L (Marginal, 5 h) ☾
76%
Tue10 Nov 26
DDDDDDDDEFFGGGGGGEDDEDDE
best window: 0001–0700L (Marginal, 8 h) ☾ 1800–1900L (Marginal, 2 h) ☾ 2100–2200L (Marginal, 2 h) ☾
79%
Wed11 Nov 26
GGEGGGGGGGGGGFFFEDDDDDDD
1700–2300L (Marginal, 7 h) ☾
76%
Thu12 Nov 26
DDDDDDDEEFFFFFEEDEEDDDDD
0001–0600L (Marginal, 7 h) ☾ 1900–2300L (Marginal, 5 h) ☾
75%
Fri13 Nov 26
DDDDDDDEEFFFFFFFEEEEEDDD
0001–0600L (Marginal, 7 h) ☾ 2100–2300L (Marginal, 3 h) ☾
76%
Sat14 Nov 26
DDDDDEEEFFGGGGGGGGGGGGFE
0001–0400L (Marginal, 5 h) ☾
72%
Sun15 Nov 26
EDDDDDEEEFFGGGGGGGGGGGFE
0100–0500L (Marginal, 5 h) ☾
72%
Mon16 Nov 26
EDDDDDDDEEFFFFGGGGGGGGEE
0100–0700L (Marginal, 7 h) ☾
70%
Tue17 Nov 26
EEDDDDDDEEFFFFFGGEGGGEED
0200–0700L (Marginal, 6 h) ☾
69%
Wed18 Nov 26
DDDDDDDDEEFFGGGGGGFFEEEE
0001–0700L (Marginal, 8 h) ☾
69%
Thu19 Nov 26
EDDDDDEEEFFGGGGGGGGGGGEE
0100–0500L (Marginal, 5 h) ☾
69%
Fri20 Nov 26
DDDDDDEEEFFFFFEEEEGFEEDD
0001–0500L (Marginal, 6 h) ☾ 2200–2300L (Marginal, 2 h) ☾
69%
Sat21 Nov 26
DDDDDDEFFEFFFFFFEFGGGEED
0001–0500L (Marginal, 6 h) ☾
69%
Sun22 Nov 26
DDDDDDDDDEEFFFFFEEFFEEEE
0001–0800L (Marginal, 9 h) ☾
69%
A ExcellentB GoodC FairD MarginalE PoorF Very PoorG Unacceptable· No data
Best window (highest confidence, then grade, then length): Tue 10 Nov 26 0001–0700L (Marginal, 8 h) ☾, confidence 79%.
Learned corrections (METAR-verified): skill weighting — pooled all-field scores for 206; bias corrections — wttrin wind −3.0 kt, Visual Crossing wind −3.0 kt, Open-Meteo dewpoint +3.0 °C, Foreca dewpoint +3.0 °C, metcheck dewpoint +3.0 °C, OpenWeather dewpoint +3.0 °C (+67 more); hour-of-day bias (local time, shrunk toward the all-hours bias) — Visual Crossing night wind −4.0 kt, wttrin evening wind −3.7 kt, Visual Crossing evening wind −3.6 kt, wttrin night wind −3.5 kt, gfs evening wind −3.4 kt, gfs night wind −3.3 kt (+284 more); cloud base estimated as 410 ft per °C of dewpoint spread for sources that report no ceiling (≥60% cloud cover; flagged estimated, weighted ×0.5); probability calibration — rain chance: meteoblue, Open-Meteo, Foreca, metcheck, OpenWeather, Visual Crossing, Tomorrow.io, wttrin, ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo, gem, Open-Meteo Ensemble (ECMWF IFS + GEFS); storm: Open-Meteo, Met.no (Yr), Foreca, OpenWeather, Visual Crossing, Tomorrow.io, wttrin, ecmwf, gfs, icon, meteofrance, aviationweather, ukmo, jma, gem, Open-Meteo Ensemble (ECMWF IFS + GEFS), aifs (each source's stated probability mapped to its verified frequency by an isotonic fit on ≥200 pairs, proven on the holdout); fog risk (n=1643): observed fog frequency by dewpoint spread, wind, local hour and season for the forecast conditions (shown from 10 %), proven on the holdout; plausibility bounds from ERA5 climatology 2016-2025 (mean ± 5 sd; screening only, not observed truth); skill blend 1 auto-tuned over 9267 holdout pairs (consensus beat the best single source, icon, by 13%); correction gates (newest-7-day holdout; pooled skill is always on) — regional skill: off this week (did not improve holdout); place skill: off this week (did not improve holdout); lead-time skill: off this week (did not improve holdout); small-sample skill shrinkage: off this week (did not improve holdout); bias correction: on (improved holdout by 26.4%); place bias: on (improved holdout by 10.1%); hour-of-day bias: on (improved holdout by 6.6%); QNH bias: on (improved holdout by 55.7%); gust estimates: off this week (did not improve holdout); cloud-base coefficient: off this week (insufficient holdout: 83 of 200 items); recent-form skill: off this week (did not improve holdout); probability calibration: on (improved holdout by 46.6%); nowcast anchor horizon: off this week (did not improve holdout); dust-visibility estimate: off this week (did not improve holdout); fog risk: on (improved holdout by 1.5%).
Outlook
| Day | Date | Outlook | Temp | Max wind | Flight windows | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) |
| Mon | 9 Nov 26 | Marginal | 22–39°C | 11 kts E, g 20 | 0100–0900L (Marginal, 9 h) ☾; 1900–2300L (Marginal, 5 h) ☾ | 76% | 9% interpolated |
| Tue | 10 Nov 26 | Marginal | 22–39°C | 12 kts E, g 22 | 0001–0700L (Marginal, 8 h) ☾; 1800–1900L (Marginal, 2 h) ☾; 2100–2200L (Marginal, 2 h) ☾ | 79% | 9% interpolated |
| Wed | 11 Nov 26 | Unacceptable | 21–37°C | 11 kts ESE, g 19 | 1700–2300L (Marginal, 7 h) ☾ | 76% | 15% interpolated |
| Thu | 12 Nov 26 | Marginal | 20–36°C | 8 kts ESE, g 16 | 0001–0600L (Marginal, 7 h) ☾; 1900–2300L (Marginal, 5 h) ☾ | 75% | 20% interpolated |
| Fri | 13 Nov 26 | Marginal | 19–35°C | 10 kts E, g 16 | 0001–0600L (Marginal, 7 h) ☾; 2100–2300L (Marginal, 3 h) ☾ | 76% | 21% interpolated |
| Sat | 14 Nov 26 | Unacceptable | 18–34°C | 11 kts E, g 20 | 0001–0400L (Marginal, 5 h) ☾ | 72% | 15% interpolated |
| Sun | 15 Nov 26 | Unacceptable | 18–35°C | 10 kts E, g 19 | 0100–0500L (Marginal, 5 h) ☾ | 72% | 15% interpolated |
| Mon | 16 Nov 26 | Unacceptable | 19–36°C | 8 kts E, g 19 | 0100–0700L (Marginal, 7 h) ☾ | 70% | 15% interpolated |
| Tue | 17 Nov 26 | Poor | 19–36°C | 8 kts E, g 17 | 0200–0700L (Marginal, 6 h) ☾ | 69% | 16% interpolated |
| Wed | 18 Nov 26 | Marginal | 19–36°C | 9 kts ENE, g 19 | 0001–0700L (Marginal, 8 h) ☾ | 69% | 8% interpolated |
| Thu | 19 Nov 26 | Unacceptable | 19–36°C | 9 kts E, g 20 | 0100–0500L (Marginal, 5 h) ☾ | 69% | |
| Fri | 20 Nov 26 | Poor | 19–36°C | 8 kts E, g 15 | 0001–0500L (Marginal, 6 h) ☾; 2200–2300L (Marginal, 2 h) ☾ | 69% | |
| Sat | 21 Nov 26 | Very Poor | 19–37°C | 8 kts E, g 15 | 0001–0500L (Marginal, 6 h) ☾ | 69% | |
| Sun | 22 Nov 26 | Marginal | 20–37°C | 8 kts E, g 15 | 0001–0800L (Marginal, 9 h) ☾ | 69% |
Today — Mon 9 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: clear, winds up to 11 kts E, gusting 20 kts and temperatures 22–39°C. Flyable windows: 0100–0900L (Marginal, 9 h) and 1900–2300L (Marginal, 5 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L.
| 00–06L | 06–12L | 12–18L | 18–24L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind | D | F | G | E |
| Visibility | A | A | A | A |
| Cloud / ceiling | A | A | A | A |
| Precipitation | A | A | A | A |
| Thunderstorm | D | D | D | D |
| Fog | · | · | · | · |
A Excellent · B Good · C Fair · D Marginal (flyable) · E Poor · F Very Poor · G Unacceptable · (worst condition in each period)
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 26°C | Clear (12%) | 2 kts ESE | 7 kts | 1015 | · - No data | storm 0% · gust spread +5 kt · visibility not forecast
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 2. | 0100 | 24 (23–26)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (4–6) kts SE | 8 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 23 (23–25)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (4–6) kts SE | 7 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 23 (22–25)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (4–6) kts ESE | 7 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 5. | 0400 | 23 (21–24)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (4–7) kts ESE | 8 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 6. | 0500 | 22 (21–24)°C | Clear (1%) | 4 (4–6) kts ESE | 8 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 7. | 0600 | 22 (20–23)°C | Clear (1%) | 6 (4–6) kts ESE | 9 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 9 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 8. | 0700 | 22 (20–23)°C | Clear (2%) | 6 (5–7) kts ESE | 9 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 9. | 0800 | 25 (23–25)°C | Clear (3%) | 7 (5–8) kts E | 11 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 11 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 10. | 0900 | 28 (27–29)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (5–9) kts ESE | 11 kts | 1018 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 11 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 11. | 1000 | 32 (31–32)°C | Clear (1%) | 7 (5–10) kts ESE | 14 kts | 1019 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 12. | 1100 | 34 (33–34)°C | Clear (0%) | 9 (6–10) kts E | 16 kts | 1019 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 13. | 1200 | 37 (35–36)°C | Clear (0%) | 10 (8–11) kts E | 18 kts | 1018 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 14. | 1300 | 38 (36–37)°C | Clear (1%) | 11 (9–12) kts E | 19 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 15. | 1400 | 39 (36–38)°C | Clear (1%) | 11 (10–12) kts E | 20 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | gust 20 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 16. | 1500 | 38 (36–38)°C | Clear (1%) | 11 (9–12) kts E | 20 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 20 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 17. | 1600 | 38 (36–37)°C | Clear (2%) | 11 (9–11) kts E | 19 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 18. | 1700 | 36 (34–35)°C | Clear (3%) | 9 (8–10) kts ENE | 16 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 19. | 1800 | 33 (31–33)°C | Clear (3%) | 6 (6–9) kts ENE | 13 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 31 (29–31)°C | Clear (1%) | 5 (4–8) kts E | 10 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 21. | 2000 | 29 (28–30)°C | Clear (2%) | 5 (4–7) kts E | 8 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 28 (27–29)°C | Clear (2%) | 4 (4–6) kts ESE | 8 kts | 1018 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 28 (26–28)°C | Clear (2%) | 4 (4–6) kts ESE | 7 kts | 1018 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 27 (25–28)°C | Clear (2%) | 4 (4–6) kts ESE | 8 kts | 1018 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 76% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 9% of readings interpolated · first light 0606L · last light 1827L · Moon 0 % illuminated, rises 06:27, sets 18:09.
Tomorrow — Tue 10 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: mostly clear, winds up to 12 kts E, gusting 22 kts and temperatures 22–39°C. Flyable windows: 0001–0700L (Marginal, 8 h), 1800–1900L (Marginal, 2 h) and 2100–2200L (Marginal, 2 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.
| 00–06L | 06–12L | 12–18L | 18–24L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind | D | G | G | D |
| Visibility | A | A | A | A |
| Cloud / ceiling | A | D | E | E |
| Precipitation | A | A | A | A |
| Thunderstorm | D | D | D | D |
| Fog | · | · | · | · |
A Excellent · B Good · C Fair · D Marginal (flyable) · E Poor · F Very Poor · G Unacceptable · (worst condition in each period)
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 25 (24–27)°C | Clear (0%) | 3 (4–6) kts ESE | 8 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust spread +4 kt
| thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 2. | 0100 | 25 (24–27)°C | Clear (0%) | 3 (4–7) kts E | 7 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 24 (23–26)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (4–7) kts ESE | 8 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 23 (22–26)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (4–8) kts ESE | 9 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 9 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 5. | 0400 | 23 (22–25)°C | Clear (1%) | 5 (5–8) kts E | 10 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 10 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 6. | 0500 | 22 (21–24)°C | Clear (3%) | 5 (5–8) kts E | 10 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 10 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 7. | 0600 | 22 (20–24)°C | Clear (3%) | 6 (5–7) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 10 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 8. | 0700 | 22 (21–24)°C | Clear (10%) | 6 (5–8) kts E | 10 kts | 1018 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 10 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 9. | 0800 | 25 (24–26)°C | Mostly clear (32%) | 8 (6–9) kts E | 13 kts | 1019 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 10. | 0900 | 29 (28–29)°C | Partly cloudy (49%) | 8 (6–12) kts E | 15 kts | 1020 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 11. | 1000 | 32 (31–32)°C | Partly cloudy (46%) | 9 (7–13) kts E | 17 kts | 1020 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 12. | 1100 | 34 (33–34)°C | Partly cloudy (48%) | 9 (8–14) kts E | 18 kts | 1020 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 13. | 1200 | 37 (35–36)°C | Partly cloudy (53%) | 11 (9–14) kts E | 20 kts | 1019 | G - Unacceptable | gust 20 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 14. | 1300 | 38 (36–37)°C | Partly cloudy (40%) | 12 (10–14) kts E | 22 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | gust 22 kt · gust spread +10 kt
| gusts, wind shear, strong wind, thunderstorm risk |
| 15. | 1400 | 39 (36–38)°C | Mostly clear (32%) | 11 (10–14) kts E | 20 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | gust 20 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 16. | 1500 | 38 (36–38)°C | Partly cloudy (52%) | 11 (10–13) kts E | 20 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | gust 20 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 17. | 1600 | 38 (35–37)°C | Partly cloudy (55%) | 10 (9–13) kts E | 18 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt
| gusts, cloud cover, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 18. | 1700 | 36 (33–35)°C | Mostly clear (20%) | 9 (7–11) kts E | 14 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 19. | 1800 | 32 (31–32)°C | Clear (10%) | 5 (5–9) kts E | 10 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 10 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 20. | 1900 | 30 (29–30)°C | Mostly clear (25%) | 4 (3–7) kts E | 9 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 9 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 21. | 2000 | 29 (27–29)°C | Partly cloudy (57%) | 4 (3–7) kts E | 7 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | cloud 57%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 28 (26–28)°C | Partly cloudy (45%) | 4 (4–7) kts ESE | 7 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · cloud 45%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 27 (25–28)°C | Partly cloudy (50%) | 4 (4–7) kts SE | 7 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · cloud 50%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 26 (24–27)°C | Partly cloudy (57%) | 3 (4–7) kts SE | 7 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | cloud 57%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 79% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 9% of readings interpolated · first light 0606L · last light 1827L · Moon 2 % illuminated, rises 07:20, sets 18:56.
Extended Outlook
| Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind | G | F | F | G | G | G | G | G | G | G | G | F |
| Visibility | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A |
| Cloud / ceiling | G | E | B | B | A | C | D | G | G | F | F | A |
| Precipitation | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A |
| Thunderstorm | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
| Fog | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Overall | G | F | F | G | G | G | G | G | G | G | G | F |
A Excellent · B Good · C Fair · D Marginal (flyable) · E Poor · F Very Poor · G Unacceptable · (worst condition in each period)
Wed 11 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Unacceptable: cloudy, winds up to 11 kts ESE, gusting 19 kts and temperatures 21–37°C. Flyable windows: 1700–2300L (Marginal, 7 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall a deterioration from the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 24 (23–27)°C | Cloudy (81%) | 2 (3–7) kts ESE | 6 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 81%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 23 (22–26)°C | Overcast (92%) | 2 (3–7) kts ENE | 6 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 92%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 22 (22–25)°C | Partly cloudy (57%) | 3 (3–7) kts E | 8 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | cloud 57%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 4. | 0300 | 21 (21–25)°C | Cloudy (73%) | 4 (4–8) kts E | 9 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 73%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 5. | 0400 | 21 (21–25)°C | Cloudy (87%) | 4 (4–8) kts E | 11 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 87%
| cloud cover, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 6. | 0500 | 21 (20–24)°C | Cloudy (86%) | 4 (4–8) kts ESE | 11 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 86%
| cloud cover, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 7. | 0600 | 22 (20–23)°C | Cloudy (86%) | 6 (5–8) kts ESE | 11 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 86%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 8. | 0700 | 22 (20–23)°C | Overcast (93%) | 7 (5–9) kts ESE | 12 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 93%
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 9. | 0800 | 25 (23–25)°C | Overcast (90%) | 7 (6–10) kts ESE | 13 kts | 1018 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 90%
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 10. | 0900 | 28 (26–28)°C | Overcast (90%) | 8 (6–12) kts ESE | 15 kts | 1019 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 90%
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 11. | 1000 | 31 (29–31)°C | Cloudy (89%) | 9 (6–14) kts ESE | 18 kts | 1020 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 89% · gust 18 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 12. | 1100 | 33 (31–33)°C | Cloudy (88%) | 10 (6–14) kts ESE | 19 kts | 1019 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 88% · gust 19 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 13. | 1200 | 35 (33–35)°C | Cloudy (71%) | 11 (6–13) kts ESE | 18 kts | 1018 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 71% · gust 18 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 14. | 1300 | 36 (34–36)°C | Partly cloudy (49%) | 10 (6–13) kts ESE | 17 kts | 1017 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 15. | 1400 | 37 (34–36)°C | Partly cloudy (47%) | 9 (7–12) kts E | 16 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 16. | 1500 | 37 (35–37)°C | Mostly clear (31%) | 8 (6–11) kts E | 15 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 17. | 1600 | 37 (34–36)°C | Mostly clear (24%) | 8 (6–10) kts ENE | 14 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 18. | 1700 | 35 (32–34)°C | Mostly clear (23%) | 6 (5–9) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 11 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 19. | 1800 | 31 (30–32)°C | Partly cloudy (34%) | 3 (4–8) kts ENE | 8 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust spread +4 kt
| thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 20. | 1900 | 29 (28–30)°C | Partly cloudy (36%) | 4 (3–7) kts NE | 7 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 28 (27–28)°C | Partly cloudy (36%) | 3 (3–6) kts E | 6 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 26 (26–28)°C | Mostly clear (30%) | 3 (3–6) kts ESE | 6 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 26 (25–27)°C | Partly cloudy (41%) | 3 (3–6) kts ESE | 6 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 25 (24–26)°C | Mostly clear (30%) | 3 (3–6) kts ESE | 7 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 76% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 15% of readings interpolated · first light 0607L · last light 1827L · Moon 5 % illuminated, rises 08:13, sets 19:46.
Thu 12 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: partly cloudy, winds up to 8 kts ESE, gusting 16 kts and temperatures 20–36°C. Flyable windows: 0001–0600L (Marginal, 7 h) and 1900–2300L (Marginal, 5 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall an improvement on the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 23 (23–26)°C | Mostly clear (27%) | 3 (3–6) kts SE | 7 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 22 (22–25)°C | Mostly clear (31%) | 3 (3–6) kts SE | 7 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 21 (21–25)°C | Mostly clear (30%) | 2 (3–7) kts SE | 7 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust spread +5 kt
| thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 4. | 0300 | 21 (21–24)°C | Mostly clear (32%) | 2 (3–7) kts ESE | 6 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 5. | 0400 | 20 (20–24)°C | Partly cloudy (38%) | 4 (4–8) kts E | 10 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 10 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 6. | 0500 | 20 (20–23)°C | Partly cloudy (37%) | 4 (4–8) kts ESE | 10 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 10 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 7. | 0600 | 21 (19–22)°C | Mostly clear (30%) | 6 (5–8) kts ESE | 11 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 11 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 8. | 0700 | 21 (20–22)°C | Mostly clear (32%) | 7 (5–9) kts ESE | 12 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 9. | 0800 | 24 (22–24)°C | Partly cloudy (36%) | 7 (6–10) kts ESE | 12 kts | 1018 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 10. | 0900 | 27 (26–27)°C | Partly cloudy (40%) | 8 (7–11) kts ESE | 15 kts | 1019 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 11. | 1000 | 30 (28–30)°C | Partly cloudy (39%) | 8 (7–12) kts ESE | 16 kts | 1019 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 12. | 1100 | 32 (30–32)°C | Partly cloudy (47%) | 8 (6–11) kts ESE | 16 kts | 1018 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 13. | 1200 | 34 (32–33)°C | Partly cloudy (52%) | 7 (5–10) kts E | 15 kts | 1017 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, cloud cover, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 14. | 1300 | 35 (33–34)°C | Partly cloudy (37%) | 5 (4–9) kts E | 14 kts | 1017 | F - Very Poor | gust spread +9 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 15. | 1400 | 36 (33–35)°C | Partly cloudy (41%) | 5 (3–8) kts ENE | 13 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 16. | 1500 | 36 (33–35)°C | Partly cloudy (48%) | 5 (3–9) kts NE | 13 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 17. | 1600 | 35 (33–35)°C | Partly cloudy (44%) | 5 (3–9) kts NE | 11 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · cloud 44%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 18. | 1700 | 34 (31–33)°C | Partly cloudy (41%) | 5 (3–9) kts NE | 12 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · gust spread +6 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 19. | 1800 | 30 (29–31)°C | Mostly clear (25%) | 4 (4–8) kts NE | 11 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust spread +7 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 20. | 1900 | 28 (27–29)°C | Mostly clear (17%) | 4 (4–7) kts NE | 10 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 21. | 2000 | 27 (25–28)°C | Mostly clear (20%) | 4 (4–7) kts NE | 10 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 10 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 22. | 2100 | 26 (24–27)°C | Clear (10%) | 3 (4–6) kts ENE | 7 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 25 (23–26)°C | Clear (11%) | 3 (3–7) kts ENE | 8 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust spread +5 kt
| thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 24. | 2300 | 24 (22–25)°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 3 (3–6) kts E | 8 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust spread +5 kt
| thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
Confidence: 75% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 20% of readings interpolated · first light 0607L · last light 1827L · Moon 9 % illuminated, rises 09:06, sets 20:37.
Fri 13 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: clear, winds up to 10 kts E, gusting 16 kts and temperatures 19–35°C. Flyable windows: 0001–0600L (Marginal, 7 h) and 2100–2300L (Marginal, 3 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 22 (21–25)°C | Mostly clear (18%) | 3 (4–6) kts E | 7 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 21 (21–24)°C | Mostly clear (18%) | 3 (4–7) kts E | 7 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 21 (20–24)°C | Mostly clear (18%) | 3 (4–7) kts E | 7 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 20 (19–23)°C | Clear (10%) | 3 (4–7) kts E | 8 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust spread +5 kt
| thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 5. | 0400 | 19 (19–22)°C | Clear (12%) | 4 (4–7) kts E | 9 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 9 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 6. | 0500 | 19 (18–22)°C | Clear (12%) | 4 (5–7) kts E | 9 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 9 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 7. | 0600 | 19 (17–21)°C | Clear (12%) | 6 (5–8) kts E | 10 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 10 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 8. | 0700 | 19 (18–22)°C | Clear (11%) | 7 (6–9) kts E | 12 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 9. | 0800 | 22 (20–23)°C | Clear (11%) | 8 (7–10) kts E | 13 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 10. | 0900 | 26 (24–26)°C | Clear (3%) | 9 (8–12) kts E | 15 kts | 1018 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 11. | 1000 | 29 (27–29)°C | Clear (3%) | 10 (8–13) kts E | 16 kts | 1019 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 12. | 1100 | 30 (29–31)°C | Clear (4%) | 9 (7–13) kts E | 15 kts | 1018 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 13. | 1200 | 33 (30–33)°C | Clear (3%) | 8 (7–12) kts E | 16 kts | 1017 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 14. | 1300 | 34 (32–34)°C | Clear (2%) | 7 (6–12) kts E | 16 kts | 1017 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 15. | 1400 | 35 (32–35)°C | Clear (1%) | 7 (6–11) kts E | 16 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt · gust spread +9 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 16. | 1500 | 35 (32–35)°C | Clear (5%) | 7 (5–12) kts ENE | 15 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 17. | 1600 | 34 (31–34)°C | Clear (1%) | 7 (5–11) kts ENE | 14 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 18. | 1700 | 32 (30–32)°C | Clear (1%) | 7 (5–10) kts ENE | 14 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 19. | 1800 | 29 (27–29)°C | Clear (1%) | 5 (5–9) kts ENE | 13 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 27 (25–28)°C | Clear (1%) | 5 (4–8) kts ENE | 13 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 26 (24–26)°C | Clear (0%) | 5 (4–7) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 25 (23–26)°C | Clear (0%) | 5 (4–7) kts E | 11 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 11 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 23. | 2200 | 24 (22–25)°C | Clear (0%) | 5 (4–7) kts E | 11 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 11 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 24. | 2300 | 23 (21–24)°C | Clear (0%) | 5 (4–7) kts E | 11 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 11 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
Confidence: 76% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 21% of readings interpolated · first light 0607L · last light 1827L · Moon 15 % illuminated, rises 09:56, sets 21:29.
Sat 14 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Unacceptable: clear, winds up to 11 kts E, gusting 20 kts and temperatures 18–34°C. Flyable windows: 0001–0400L (Marginal, 5 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall a deterioration from the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 21 (20–23)°C | Clear (1%) | 4 (4–7) kts E | 10 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 10 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 2. | 0100 | 20 (20–23)°C | Clear (3%) | 4 (4–7) kts E | 10 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 3. | 0200 | 19 (19–22)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (4–7) kts E | 10 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 2% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 4. | 0300 | 19 (18–22)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (5–7) kts E | 10 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 2% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 5. | 0400 | 18 (18–21)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (5–7) kts E | 10 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 2% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 6. | 0500 | 18 (17–21)°C | Clear (0%) | 5 (5–8) kts E | 12 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 7. | 0600 | 19 (17–20)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (6–8) kts E | 13 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 8. | 0700 | 18 (17–20)°C | Clear (0%) | 8 (6–9) kts E | 14 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 9. | 0800 | 21 (20–22)°C | Clear (0%) | 9 (7–10) kts E | 16 kts | 1018 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 10. | 0900 | 24 (23–25)°C | Clear (1%) | 10 (8–12) kts E | 17 kts | 1019 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 11. | 1000 | 27 (26–28)°C | Clear (1%) | 10 (9–13) kts E | 18 kts | 1019 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 12. | 1100 | 29 (28–30)°C | Mostly clear (19%) | 10 (9–14) kts E | 19 kts | 1018 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 13. | 1200 | 32 (30–32)°C | Mostly clear (18%) | 11 (9–13) kts E | 20 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | gust 20 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 14. | 1300 | 34 (31–33)°C | Mostly clear (16%) | 10 (8–13) kts E | 20 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | gust 20 kt · gust spread +10 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 15. | 1400 | 34 (31–34)°C | Mostly clear (16%) | 10 (7–13) kts E | 20 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | gust 20 kt · gust spread +10 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 16. | 1500 | 33 (30–34)°C | Mostly clear (15%) | 9 (7–12) kts ENE | 20 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | gust 20 kt · gust spread +11 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 17. | 1600 | 32 (29–33)°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 8 (6–12) kts ENE | 20 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | gust 20 kt · gust spread +12 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 18. | 1700 | 31 (28–31)°C | Clear (11%) | 7 (5–10) kts ENE | 19 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt · gust spread +12 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 19. | 1800 | 28 (27–28)°C | Clear (2%) | 5 (4–9) kts ENE | 19 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt · gust spread +14 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 26 (25–27)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (4–7) kts ENE | 18 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt · gust spread +14 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 25 (24–26)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (4–7) kts ENE | 16 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +13 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 24 (23–25)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (4–7) kts ENE | 15 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +11 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 23 (22–24)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (4–7) kts E | 13 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | gust spread +9 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 22 (21–23)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (4–7) kts E | 11 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust spread +8 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
Confidence: 72% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 15% of readings interpolated · first light 0608L · last light 1827L · Moon 23 % illuminated, rises 10:44, sets 22:20.
Sun 15 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Unacceptable: clear, winds up to 10 kts E, gusting 19 kts and temperatures 18–35°C. Flyable windows: 0100–0500L (Marginal, 5 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 20 (20–23)°C | Clear (0%) | 3 (4–7) kts E | 10 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust spread +7 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 2. | 0100 | 20 (19–22)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (4–7) kts E | 9 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 3. | 0200 | 19 (18–22)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (4–7) kts E | 9 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 2% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 4. | 0300 | 18 (17–21)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (5–7) kts E | 9 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 2% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 5. | 0400 | 18 (17–21)°C | Clear (0%) | 5 (5–7) kts E | 10 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 2% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 6. | 0500 | 18 (17–20)°C | Clear (0%) | 5 (5–7) kts E | 11 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 2% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 7. | 0600 | 19 (17–20)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (6–8) kts E | 12 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 8. | 0700 | 19 (17–20)°C | Clear (0%) | 8 (6–9) kts E | 13 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 9. | 0800 | 21 (20–22)°C | Clear (0%) | 8 (6–10) kts E | 14 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 10. | 0900 | 24 (22–26)°C | Clear (0%) | 9 (7–12) kts E | 16 kts | 1017 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 11. | 1000 | 27 (25–29)°C | Clear (0%) | 9 (7–13) kts E | 17 kts | 1017 | F - Very Poor | gust 17 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 12. | 1100 | 30 (28–31)°C | Clear (0%) | 9 (8–13) kts E | 18 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 13. | 1200 | 33 (31–33)°C | Clear (0%) | 10 (8–12) kts E | 19 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 14. | 1300 | 35 (32–34)°C | Clear (0%) | 9 (7–12) kts E | 19 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt · gust spread +10 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 15. | 1400 | 35 (32–35)°C | Clear (0%) | 8 (7–11) kts E | 19 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt · gust spread +11 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 16. | 1500 | 35 (32–36)°C | Clear (0%) | 7 (6–10) kts E | 19 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt · gust spread +11 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 17. | 1600 | 33 (31–35)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (5–10) kts ENE | 18 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt · gust spread +12 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 18. | 1700 | 32 (29–33)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (5–8) kts ENE | 18 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt · gust spread +12 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 19. | 1800 | 29 (28–30)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (4–7) kts ENE | 17 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +13 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 28 (26–28)°C | Clear (0%) | 3 (4–7) kts ENE | 16 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +13 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 27 (24–27)°C | Clear (0%) | 3 (3–7) kts ENE | 15 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +12 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 25 (24–26)°C | Clear (0%) | 3 (3–7) kts ENE | 14 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +11 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 24 (23–25)°C | Clear (0%) | 3 (3–7) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust spread +9 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 23 (22–25)°C | Clear (0%) | 3 (3–7) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust spread +7 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
Confidence: 72% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 15% of readings interpolated · first light 0608L · last light 1827L · Moon 31 % illuminated, rises 11:28, sets 23:11.
Mon 16 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Unacceptable: clear, winds up to 8 kts E, gusting 19 kts and temperatures 19–36°C. Flyable windows: 0100–0700L (Marginal, 7 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 21 (21–24)°C | Clear (0%) | 2 (3–7) kts E | 9 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust spread +7 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 2. | 0100 | 20 (spread 20–21)°C | Clear (0%) | 2 (spread 2–3) kts E | 8 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust spread +6 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 3. | 0200 | 20 (spread 20–21)°C | Clear (0%) | 3 kts E | 8 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust spread +5 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 4. | 0300 | 20 (spread 19–20)°C | Clear (0%) | 3 (spread 3–4) kts E | 8 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust spread +5 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 5. | 0400 | 19 (spread 19–20)°C | Clear (1%) | 4 (spread 3–4) kts E | 9 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 6. | 0500 | 19 (spread 18–20)°C | Clear (1%) | 4 (spread 3–5) kts E | 9 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 7. | 0600 | 20 (spread 19–21)°C | Clear (2%) | 6 (spread 5–8) kts E | 10 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 8. | 0700 | 20 (spread 19–21)°C | Clear (1%) | 7 (spread 5–8) kts E | 11 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 9. | 0800 | 22 (spread 21–23)°C | Clear (2%) | 7 (spread 6–8) kts E | 12 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 10. | 0900 | 25 (spread 24–25)°C | Clear (2%) | 8 (spread 7–8) kts E | 14 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 11. | 1000 | 28 (spread 27–28)°C | Clear (2%) | 8 (spread 7–9) kts E | 16 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 12. | 1100 | 30 (spread 30–31)°C | Clear (3%) | 8 (spread 7–8) kts E | 16 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 13. | 1200 | 34°C | Clear (3%) | 8 (spread 8–9) kts E | 16 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 14. | 1300 | 36 (spread 35–36)°C | Clear (3%) | 8 (spread 7–8) kts E | 16 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 15. | 1400 | 36 (spread 35–36)°C | Clear (3%) | 7 (spread 6–8) kts E | 19 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt · gust spread +12 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 16. | 1500 | 35 (spread 35–36)°C | Clear (3%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts ENE | 19 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt · gust spread +13 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 17. | 1600 | 35 (spread 34–35)°C | Clear (3%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts ENE | 19 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt · gust spread +13 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 18. | 1700 | 33°C | Clear (2%) | 5 (spread 4–6) kts ENE | 18 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt · gust spread +13 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 19. | 1800 | 30°C | Clear (2%) | 3 (spread 3–4) kts ENE | 14 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +10 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 29 (spread 28–29)°C | Clear (2%) | 3 kts NE | 13 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +10 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 28 (spread 27–28)°C | Clear (9%) | 3 kts ENE | 13 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +10 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 27 (spread 26–27)°C | Mostly clear (17%) | 2 (spread 2–3) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +9 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 25 (spread 25–26)°C | Mostly clear (26%) | 2 (spread 1–3) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust spread +9 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 24. | 2300 | 24 (spread 24–25)°C | Partly cloudy (35%) | 1 (spread 1–2) kts E | 9 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust spread +8 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
Confidence: 70% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 15% of readings interpolated · first light 0608L · last light 1827L · Moon 40 % illuminated, rises 12:09.
Tue 17 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Poor: mostly clear, winds up to 8 kts E, gusting 17 kts and temperatures 19–36°C. Flyable windows: 0200–0700L (Marginal, 6 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall an improvement on the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 22 (spread 22–23)°C | Partly cloudy (42%) | 1 (spread 0–2) kts ESE | 8 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust spread +8 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 21 (spread 21–22)°C | Partly cloudy (51%) | 0 (spread 0–1) kts SE | 8 kts | 1012 | E - Poor | gust spread +7 kt
| wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 21 (spread 20–21)°C | Partly cloudy (42%) | 1 (spread 1–2) kts ESE | 7 kts | 1012 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust spread +6 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 4. | 0300 | 20 (spread 19–21)°C | Partly cloudy (35%) | 2 (spread 1–2) kts ESE | 7 kts | 1012 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust spread +6 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 5. | 0400 | 19 (spread 18–20)°C | Mostly clear (26%) | 2 (spread 2–3) kts ESE | 8 kts | 1012 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust spread +6 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 6. | 0500 | 19 (spread 18–20)°C | Mostly clear (19%) | 3 kts E | 9 kts | 1012 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 7. | 0600 | 20 (spread 19–21)°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 5 (spread 5–6) kts E | 10 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 8. | 0700 | 20 (spread 19–20)°C | Clear (6%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts E | 11 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 9. | 0800 | 22 (spread 21–23)°C | Clear (8%) | 7 (spread 6–7) kts E | 12 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 10. | 0900 | 25 (spread 24–25)°C | Clear (8%) | 7 kts E | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 11. | 1000 | 28 (spread 27–28)°C | Clear (7%) | 7 (spread 7–8) kts E | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 12. | 1100 | 30 (spread 30–31)°C | Clear (6%) | 7 kts E | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 13. | 1200 | 34 (spread 34–35)°C | Clear (4%) | 8 (spread 7–8) kts E | 15 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 14. | 1300 | 36°C | Clear (2%) | 7 kts ENE | 15 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 15. | 1400 | 36 (spread 35–36)°C | Clear (2%) | 7 (spread 6–7) kts ENE | 15 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 16. | 1500 | 35 (spread 35–36)°C | Clear (1%) | 6 (spread 5–6) kts ENE | 17 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +12 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 17. | 1600 | 34 (spread 34–35)°C | Clear (1%) | 5 (spread 4–5) kts ENE | 17 kts | 1012 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +12 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 18. | 1700 | 33 (spread 32–33)°C | Clear (1%) | 5 (spread 4–5) kts ENE | 13 kts | 1012 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · gust spread +9 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 19. | 1800 | 30 (spread 29–30)°C | Clear (1%) | 2 (spread 2–3) kts NE | 13 kts | 1012 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +10 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 28°C | Clear (1%) | 2 (spread 2–3) kts NE | 12 kts | 1012 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +10 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 27°C | Clear (2%) | 2 (spread 2–3) kts NE | 12 kts | 1012 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +9 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 26°C | Clear (4%) | 2 (spread 2–3) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1012 | E - Poor | gust spread +8 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 23. | 2200 | 25°C | Clear (4%) | 2 (spread 2–3) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust spread +7 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 24. | 2300 | 24 (spread 24–25)°C | Clear (4%) | 2 (spread 2–3) kts ENE | 8 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust spread +6 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
Confidence: 69% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 16% of readings interpolated · first light 0609L · last light 1827L · Moon 50 % illuminated, rises 12:48, sets 00:00.
Wed 18 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: partly cloudy, winds up to 9 kts ENE, gusting 19 kts and temperatures 19–36°C. Flyable windows: 0001–0700L (Marginal, 8 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall an improvement on the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 22°C | Clear (2%) | 2 kts E | 7 kts | 1012 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust spread +5 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 2. | 0100 | 21 (spread 21–22)°C | Clear (1%) | 2 kts E | 7 kts | 1012 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust spread +4 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 3. | 0200 | 21 (spread 20–21)°C | Clear (2%) | 3 kts E | 7 kts | 1012 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 20 (spread 19–21)°C | Clear (3%) | 3 (spread 3–4) kts E | 7 kts | 1012 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 5. | 0400 | 19 (spread 19–20)°C | Clear (4%) | 4 (spread 3–4) kts E | 8 kts | 1012 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 6. | 0500 | 19 (spread 18–20)°C | Clear (6%) | 4 (spread 3–4) kts E | 9 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 7. | 0600 | 20 (spread 19–21)°C | Clear (8%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts E | 10 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 8. | 0700 | 20 (spread 19–20)°C | Clear (12%) | 7 (spread 5–8) kts E | 11 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 9. | 0800 | 22 (spread 21–23)°C | Mostly clear (23%) | 7 (spread 6–8) kts E | 12 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 10. | 0900 | 25 (spread 24–26)°C | Partly cloudy (36%) | 8 (spread 7–8) kts E | 14 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 11. | 1000 | 28 (spread 27–28)°C | Partly cloudy (50%) | 8 kts E | 16 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 12. | 1100 | 30 (spread 30–31)°C | Cloudy (65%) | 8 kts E | 16 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | cloud 65% · gust 16 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 13. | 1200 | 34°C | Cloudy (78%) | 9 (spread 8–9) kts ENE | 16 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 78%
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 14. | 1300 | 36°C | Cloudy (88%) | 8 (spread 8–9) kts ENE | 19 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 88% · gust 19 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 15. | 1400 | 36°C | Cloudy (81%) | 8 kts ENE | 19 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 81% · gust 19 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 16. | 1500 | 35°C | Cloudy (70%) | 7 kts ENE | 19 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 70% · gust 19 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 17. | 1600 | 34°C | Partly cloudy (58%) | 7 kts ENE | 19 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | gust 19 kt · gust spread +12 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 18. | 1700 | 33°C | Partly cloudy (44%) | 7 kts ENE | 18 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | gust 18 kt · gust spread +11 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 19. | 1800 | 30°C | Mostly clear (31%) | 5 kts NE | 14 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust spread +9 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 28°C | Mostly clear (23%) | 5 kts NE | 14 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust spread +9 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 27°C | Mostly clear (19%) | 5 kts NE | 13 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · gust spread +9 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 26°C | Mostly clear (18%) | 4 kts ENE | 12 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 25°C | Mostly clear (19%) | 4 kts ENE | 11 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust spread +7 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 24. | 2300 | 24°C | Mostly clear (21%) | 4 kts ENE | 11 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust spread +6 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
Confidence: 69% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 8% of readings interpolated · first light 0609L · last light 1827L · Moon 60 % illuminated, rises 13:26, sets 00:48.
Thu 19 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Unacceptable: cloudy, winds up to 9 kts E, gusting 20 kts and temperatures 19–36°C. Flyable windows: 0100–0500L (Marginal, 5 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall a deterioration from the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 22°C | Mostly clear (24%) | 3 kts ENE | 10 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust spread +6 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 2. | 0100 | 21°C | Mostly clear (26%) | 3 kts E | 9 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 3. | 0200 | 21°C | Mostly clear (28%) | 4 kts E | 9 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 4. | 0300 | 20°C | Mostly clear (30%) | 4 kts E | 9 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 5. | 0400 | 20°C | Partly cloudy (33%) | 4 kts E | 10 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 6. | 0500 | 19°C | Partly cloudy (36%) | 5 kts E | 11 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 7. | 0600 | 20°C | Partly cloudy (39%) | 7 kts E | 12 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 8. | 0700 | 20°C | Partly cloudy (44%) | 8 kts E | 13 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 9. | 0800 | 23°C | Partly cloudy (51%) | 8 kts E | 14 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt
| gusts, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 10. | 0900 | 25°C | Cloudy (60%) | 8 kts E | 15 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, cloud cover, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 11. | 1000 | 28°C | Cloudy (68%) | 9 kts E | 16 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | cloud 68% · gust 16 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 12. | 1100 | 31°C | Cloudy (73%) | 9 kts E | 17 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 73%
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 13. | 1200 | 34°C | Cloudy (78%) | 9 kts E | 17 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 78%
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 14. | 1300 | 36°C | Cloudy (80%) | 9 kts ENE | 20 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 80% · gust 20 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 15. | 1400 | 36°C | Cloudy (80%) | 8 kts ENE | 20 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 80% · gust 20 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 16. | 1500 | 35°C | Cloudy (78%) | 7 kts ENE | 20 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 78% · gust 20 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 17. | 1600 | 34°C | Cloudy (75%) | 6 kts ENE | 20 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 75% · gust 20 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 18. | 1700 | 33°C | Cloudy (73%) | 6 kts ENE | 16 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 73% · gust spread +10 kt
| cloud cover, wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 19. | 1800 | 29°C | Cloudy (70%) | 4 kts NE | 16 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 70% · gust spread +13 kt
| cloud cover, wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 28°C | Cloudy (68%) | 3 kts NE | 16 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +12 kt
| wind shear, cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 27°C | Cloudy (65%) | 3 kts NE | 15 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +11 kt
| wind shear, cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 26°C | Cloudy (62%) | 3 kts ENE | 13 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +10 kt
| wind shear, cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 25°C | Partly cloudy (58%) | 3 kts ENE | 11 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | cloud 58% · gust spread +8 kt
| cloud cover, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 24. | 2300 | 24°C | Partly cloudy (51%) | 3 kts ENE | 10 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust spread +7 kt
| wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
Confidence: 69% — data for 24 of 24 hours · first light 0610L · last light 1827L · Moon 69 % illuminated, rises 14:03, sets 01:35.
Fri 20 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Poor: partly cloudy, winds up to 8 kts E, gusting 15 kts and temperatures 19–36°C. Flyable windows: 0001–0500L (Marginal, 6 h) and 2200–2300L (Marginal, 2 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall an improvement on the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 22°C | Partly cloudy (45%) | 3 kts ENE | 9 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · cloud 45%
| ⚠ cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 2. | 0100 | 21°C | Partly cloudy (40%) | 3 kts ENE | 8 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust spread +5 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 3. | 0200 | 21°C | Partly cloudy (38%) | 3 kts ENE | 8 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust spread +5 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 4. | 0300 | 20°C | Partly cloudy (39%) | 4 kts E | 9 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 5. | 0400 | 19°C | Partly cloudy (39%) | 4 kts E | 10 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 6. | 0500 | 19°C | Partly cloudy (37%) | 5 kts E | 11 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 7. | 0600 | 20°C | Partly cloudy (36%) | 7 kts E | 13 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 8. | 0700 | 20°C | Partly cloudy (36%) | 7 kts E | 14 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +6 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 9. | 0800 | 23°C | Partly cloudy (40%) | 8 kts E | 14 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 10. | 0900 | 25°C | Partly cloudy (46%) | 8 kts E | 15 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 11. | 1000 | 28°C | Partly cloudy (53%) | 8 kts E | 15 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, cloud cover, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 12. | 1100 | 31°C | Partly cloudy (59%) | 8 kts E | 15 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, cloud cover, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 13. | 1200 | 34°C | Cloudy (64%) | 8 kts E | 15 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | cloud 64% · gust 15 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 14. | 1300 | 36°C | Cloudy (65%) | 7 kts E | 15 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | cloud 65% · gust 15 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 15. | 1400 | 36°C | Partly cloudy (59%) | 6 kts ENE | 14 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | cloud 59% · gust 14 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 16. | 1500 | 35°C | Partly cloudy (50%) | 6 kts ENE | 14 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 17. | 1600 | 34°C | Partly cloudy (40%) | 5 kts NE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 18. | 1700 | 33°C | Mostly clear (30%) | 5 kts NE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 19. | 1800 | 30°C | Mostly clear (20%) | 3 kts NNE | 13 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +9 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 28°C | Mostly clear (15%) | 3 kts NNE | 12 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust spread +9 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 27°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 3 kts NNE | 11 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust spread +8 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 22. | 2100 | 26°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 3 kts NE | 10 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust spread +7 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 23. | 2200 | 25°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 3 kts NE | 9 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 24. | 2300 | 24°C | Clear (11%) | 3 kts NE | 8 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust spread +5 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
Confidence: 69% — data for 24 of 24 hours · first light 0610L · last light 1827L · Moon 79 % illuminated, rises 14:42, sets 02:24.
Sat 21 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Very Poor: mostly clear, winds up to 8 kts E, gusting 15 kts and temperatures 19–37°C. Flyable windows: 0001–0500L (Marginal, 6 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall a deterioration from the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 22°C | Clear (11%) | 2 kts ENE | 7 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust spread +5 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 2. | 0100 | 21°C | Clear (12%) | 2 kts ENE | 7 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust spread +5 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 3. | 0200 | 21°C | Mostly clear (19%) | 3 kts ENE | 7 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 20°C | Mostly clear (29%) | 3 kts E | 8 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust spread +4 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 5. | 0400 | 20°C | Partly cloudy (41%) | 4 kts E | 9 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 6. | 0500 | 19°C | Partly cloudy (51%) | 4 kts E | 10 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · cloud 51%
| ⚠ cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 7. | 0600 | 21°C | Cloudy (60%) | 7 kts E | 11 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | cloud 60%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 8. | 0700 | 21°C | Cloudy (65%) | 7 kts E | 12 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | cloud 65%
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 9. | 0800 | 23°C | Cloudy (62%) | 7 kts E | 13 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | cloud 62%
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 10. | 0900 | 26°C | Partly cloudy (56%) | 8 kts E | 14 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | cloud 56% · gust 14 kt
| cloud cover, gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 11. | 1000 | 29°C | Partly cloudy (46%) | 8 kts E | 15 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 12. | 1100 | 31°C | Partly cloudy (35%) | 8 kts E | 15 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 13. | 1200 | 35°C | Mostly clear (24%) | 8 kts E | 15 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 14. | 1300 | 37°C | Mostly clear (17%) | 7 kts ENE | 15 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 15. | 1400 | 37°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 7 kts ENE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 16. | 1500 | 36°C | Clear (12%) | 6 kts ENE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 17. | 1600 | 35°C | Clear (12%) | 6 kts ENE | 14 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +9 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 18. | 1700 | 33°C | Clear (12%) | 5 kts NE | 14 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust spread +9 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 19. | 1800 | 30°C | Clear (11%) | 3 kts NE | 14 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +11 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 29°C | Clear (10%) | 3 kts NE | 13 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +10 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 28°C | Clear (9%) | 3 kts NE | 13 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | gust spread +10 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 27°C | Clear (8%) | 3 kts NE | 11 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust spread +9 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 23. | 2200 | 26°C | Clear (7%) | 3 kts ENE | 10 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust spread +7 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 24. | 2300 | 25°C | Clear (6%) | 3 kts ENE | 9 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
Confidence: 69% — data for 24 of 24 hours · first light 0610L · last light 1827L · Moon 87 % illuminated, rises 15:23, sets 03:15.
Sun 22 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: clear, winds up to 8 kts E, gusting 15 kts and temperatures 20–37°C. Flyable windows: 0001–0800L (Marginal, 9 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall an improvement on the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 23°C | Clear (5%) | 3 kts ENE | 8 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust spread +5 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 2. | 0100 | 22°C | Clear (5%) | 3 kts ENE | 7 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 21°C | Clear (6%) | 3 kts ENE | 7 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 21°C | Clear (8%) | 3 kts E | 7 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 5. | 0400 | 20°C | Clear (8%) | 3 kts E | 8 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust spread +4 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 6. | 0500 | 20°C | Clear (7%) | 4 kts E | 8 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 3%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 7. | 0600 | 21°C | Clear (5%) | 6 kts E | 9 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 8. | 0700 | 21°C | Clear (4%) | 6 kts E | 10 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 9. | 0800 | 23°C | Clear (6%) | 7 kts E | 11 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 3% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 10. | 0900 | 26°C | Clear (8%) | 7 kts E | 13 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 11. | 1000 | 29°C | Clear (11%) | 7 kts E | 14 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 12. | 1100 | 31°C | Clear (12%) | 7 kts E | 15 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 13. | 1200 | 35°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 8 kts E | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 14. | 1300 | 37°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 8 kts ENE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 15. | 1400 | 37°C | Clear (11%) | 7 kts ENE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 16. | 1500 | 36°C | Clear (8%) | 7 kts ENE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 17. | 1600 | 35°C | Clear (5%) | 6 kts NE | 14 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 18. | 1700 | 34°C | Clear (4%) | 6 kts NE | 14 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 19. | 1800 | 30°C | Clear (4%) | 4 kts NE | 13 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust spread +9 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 29°C | Clear (4%) | 4 kts NNE | 13 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | gust spread +8 kt
| wind shear, gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 28°C | Clear (4%) | 4 kts NE | 12 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 27°C | Clear (4%) | 4 kts NE | 12 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 26°C | Clear (4%) | 4 kts NE | 11 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust spread +7 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 24. | 2300 | 25°C | Clear (4%) | 3 kts NE | 10 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust spread +7 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
Confidence: 69% — data for 24 of 24 hours · first light 0611L · last light 1827L · Moon 93 % illuminated, rises 16:08, sets 04:09.
TAF
No TAF available for this location.
Imagery
Source panel
| Source | Accuracy | Skill n | Temp °C | Wind kt | Visibility | Storm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) |
| Open-Meteo Ensemble (ECMWF IFS + GEFS) | ▲ 1.4 | 5719 | 21–24 | 5 | — | 0 % |
| Met.no (Yr) | ▲ 1.2 | 3807 | 22–24 | 5–6 | — | 0 % |
| Open-Meteo | ≈ 1.0 | 11372 | 23–25 | 5–6 | 10+ km | 0 % |
| OpenWeather | ≈ 1.0 | 1805 | 25–26 | 7 | 10+ km | 0 % |
| Tomorrow.io | ▲ 1.2 | 4919 | 22–25 | 4–5 | 10+ km | 0 % |
| Visual Crossing | ≈ 1.0 | 9780 | 21–23 | 6–7 | 10+ km | 0 % |
Each source's own raw values, min–max over the next 6 hours from the issue hour (before any weighting or bias correction). — means the source does not publish that metric in the window. Wide gaps between rows are real disagreement; the forecast above weights sources by measured skill.
Reading this report
Grades: each hour carries one grade, set by its WORST factor. The bands below are the thresholds in force for this report (Settings); a value in a band earns that grade, and "-" means the factor never produces that grade. Cloud is graded on the worse of cover and ceiling. The Driver column names the limiting factor with its value; open it in the web report for the boundary and sources.
| Grade | Cloud cover | Cloud ceiling | Visibility | Wind | Gust | Rain chance | Thunderstorm probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) |
| A Excellent | ≤ 17.1% | ≥ 30000 ft | ≥ 8000 m | < 3 kt | < 3 kt | < 5% | 0% |
| B Good | 17.1–34.3% | 26000–30000 ft | 6666.7–8000 m | 3–6 kt | 3–6 kt | 5–10% | - |
| C Fair | 34.3–42.9% | 24000–26000 ft | 5333.3–6666.7 m | 6–9 kt | 6–9 kt | 10–15% | - |
| D Marginal | 42.9–51.4% | 22000–24000 ft | 4000–5333.3 m | 9–12 kt | 9–12 kt | 15–20% | >0–15% |
| E Poor | 51.4–60% | 16000–22000 ft | 2666.7–4000 m | 12–15 kt | 12–15 kt | 20–25% | 15–30% |
| F Very Poor | 60–68.6% | 10000–16000 ft | 1333.3–2666.7 m | 15–18 kt | 15–18 kt | 25–30% | 30–60% |
| G Unacceptable | > 68.6% | < 10000 ft | < 1333.3 m | ≥ 18 kt | ≥ 18 kt | ≥ 30% | > 60% |
Flight windows: a window is at least 2 consecutive hours graded Marginal or better; an hour with insufficient data never counts toward one. ☾ marks a window outside first-to-last light.
Time: hours are local time (WAT, UTC+1) unless suffixed Z, which is UTC (TAF, METAR and issue times). Local midnight is labelled 0001.
Units: temperature °C · wind and gusts knots · visibility metres (km in text) · cloud ceiling feet · cloud cover % · rain chance and thunderstorm probability % · QNH hPa (altimeter setting at the field) · CAPE J/kg. A figure like "28 (26–30)°C" gives the p10–p90 range; "spread" marks disagreement between sources.
Symbols: ▲ better than the pool · ▽ worse (only when the 95% interval excludes the pool) · ≈ not distinguishable from the pool · unmarked = unproven (accuracy is measured against METAR and SYNOP observations). ⚠ on a remark means a low-confidence hour; a ⚠ paragraph on the first page is a convective-warning or data-age advisory. ⚡ is lightning observed by satellite near the field (©EUMETSAT).
Hourly glyphs: the wind arrow points the way the air moves (a north wind is ↓, an east wind ←); cloud cover shows as ☀ ◔ ◑ ◕ ☁ (clear, few, scattered, broken, overcast); a shaded hour label is wholly before first light or after last light.
Terms: "No data" - no source forecast the hour, or a core group (cloud, visibility, wind) is missing and the hour could still be flyable; missing data is never given a good grade. "Low-confidence" - few or weak sources behind the load-bearing metrics; treat the grade as indicative. "Insufficient data" - too little to grade at all. "Estimated" (est.) - the value is derived, not reported by a source (dust visibility, cloud base, gusts); it is declared where used and weighted at half. "Derived" - an hour interpolated from a coarser (3-hourly or daily) source, weighted at half and never used to score accuracy.
Data provenance
| Source | Fetched (Z) | Age | Skill n | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) |
| Open-Meteo Ensemble (ECMWF IFS + GEFS) | 9 Nov 00:20Z | 5 min | 5719 | ▲ 1.4 |
| Foreca | 9 Nov 00:21Z | 3 min | 366 | ▽ 0.8 |
| Met.no (Yr) | 9 Nov 00:21Z | 4 min | 3807 | ▲ 1.2 |
| Open-Meteo | 9 Nov 00:19Z | 6 min | 11372 | ≈ 1.0 |
| OpenWeather | 9 Nov 00:21Z | 4 min | 1805 | ≈ 1.0 |
| Tomorrow.io | 9 Nov 00:22Z | 3 min | 4919 | ▲ 1.2 |
| Visual Crossing | 9 Nov 00:19Z | 6 min | 9780 | ≈ 1.0 |
Corrections applied (detailed under Learned corrections on the first page): skill weighting, bias correction, hour-of-day bias, cloud-base estimate, probability calibration, fog risk, climatology bounds, skill blend.
How accurate have we been
Measured against observations (METAR/SYNOP), sahel region. Verification table computed 2026-11-08. Mean absolute error (MAE): lower is better; "beats persistence" compares the best source with "it will stay as it is now" on the same hours.
| Metric | Best source | Best MAE | Typical MAE | Persistence MAE | Beats persistence by | Pairs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) |
| Temperature (°C) | meteoblue | 1.1 | 2.0 | 5.4 | 84 % | 5327 |
| Dew point (°C) | accuweather | 2.1 | 4.9 | 2.6 | -21 % | 46 |
| Wind speed (kt) | aifs | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 26 % | 906 |
| Visibility (m) | aviationweather | 1331 | 2346 | 1269 | 7 % | 1621 |
| Cloud cover (%) | accuweather | 10 | 37 | 9 | - | 27 |
Learned bias (forecast minus observed; positive = sources run high), mean over scored sources, by local time of day. These are corrected for before sources are averaged.
| Metric | Overall | Night | Morning | Afternoon | Evening | Pairs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) |
| Temperature (°C) | -0.0 | +1.0 | -0.1 | -0.9 | +0.0 | 108343 |
| Dew point (°C) | -3.9 | -4.7 | -4.2 | -3.3 | -3.8 | 96126 |
| Wind speed (kt) | +0.8 | +1.8 | +0.4 | -0.0 | +1.2 | 95853 |
| Pressure (QNH) (hPa) | +0.5 | +0.5 | +0.4 | +0.8 | +0.2 | 49912 |
Not yet available: Scores are decayed over the verification window (half-life 14 days); separate last-7-day and last-30-day windows are not stored. Bias is the current learned value; the history needed for a trend over time is not stored. Flight-window hit / bust / miss is not yet recorded.