Minna — 14-Day Forecast
DNMN · issued 7 Nov 26 00:23Z
Sources used (6): Foreca≈ 1.1 Met.no (Yr)≈ 1.0 Open-Meteo≈ 1.0 OpenWeather≈ 1.0 Tomorrow.io▲ 1.1 Visual Crossing≈ 1.1
▲ better than the pool · ▽ worse (only when the 95% interval excludes the pool) · ≈ not distinguishable from the pool · unmarked = unproven (accuracy is measured against METAR and SYNOP observations)
Sat7 Nov 26
·GGGFGFDDEEEEEEEEEEDDDDD
0700–0800L (Marginal, 2 h) 1900–2300L (Marginal, 5 h) ☾
74%
Sun8 Nov 26
DDDDDDDDDDDEEEEEEDDDDDDD
best window: 0001–1000L (Marginal, 11 h) ☾ 1700–2300L (Marginal, 7 h) ☾
78%
Mon9 Nov 26
FDDDDDDDDDDEEEEDEDDDDDDD
0100–1000L (Marginal, 10 h) ☾ 1700–2300L (Marginal, 7 h) ☾
74%
Tue10 Nov 26
DDDDDFGGEDEEEEEGGGGGGGGG
0001–0400L (Marginal, 5 h) ☾
73%
Wed11 Nov 26
GGGGGGEEEGGGGGGGGGDDDDDD
1800–2300L (Marginal, 6 h) ☾
73%
Thu12 Nov 26
DEDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDEDDDDD
0200–1700L (Marginal, 16 h) ☾ 1900–2300L (Marginal, 5 h) ☾
68%
Fri13 Nov 26
DDEFGGGGGGEEEEEEDDDDDDDD
0001–0100L (Marginal, 2 h) ☾ 1600–2300L (Marginal, 8 h) ☾
69%
Sat14 Nov 26
DDDDDDDDDEEEEFFFFEEEFEED
0001–0800L (Marginal, 9 h) ☾
68%
Sun15 Nov 26
DDDDDDEEEDEEEEEDDDDDDDDE
0001–0500L (Marginal, 6 h) ☾ 1500–2200L (Marginal, 8 h) ☾
69%
Mon16 Nov 26
EEEDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDEEDDDD
0300–1700L (Marginal, 15 h) ☾ 2000–2300L (Marginal, 4 h) ☾
68%
Tue17 Nov 26
DDDDDDDEEEDEEEDDDDDDDDDD
0001–0600L (Marginal, 7 h) ☾ 1400–2300L (Marginal, 10 h) ☾
68%
Wed18 Nov 26
DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD
0001–2300L (Marginal, 24 h) ☾
68%
Thu19 Nov 26
DDDDDFGGGGGGGGGGEDDDDDDD
0001–0400L (Marginal, 5 h) ☾ 1700–2300L (Marginal, 7 h) ☾
68%
Fri20 Nov 26
DDDDDDDDDDEEEFFFEEDDEEEF
0001–0900L (Marginal, 10 h) ☾ 1800–1900L (Marginal, 2 h) ☾
67%
A ExcellentB GoodC FairD MarginalE PoorF Very PoorG Unacceptable· No data
Best window (highest confidence, then grade, then length): Sun 8 Nov 26 0001–1000L (Marginal, 11 h) ☾, confidence 78%.
Learned corrections (METAR-verified): skill weighting — pooled all-field scores for 206; bias corrections — meteoblue temperature +3.0 °C, meteoblue QNH −3.0 hPa, Open-Meteo temperature +3.0 °C, Open-Meteo dewpoint +3.0 °C, Met.no (Yr) temperature +3.0 °C, Met.no (Yr) dewpoint +3.0 °C (+67 more); hour-of-day bias (local time, shrunk toward the all-hours bias) — aifs afternoon wind +3.2 kt, metcheck afternoon wind +3.2 kt, meteoblue night temperature +3.0 °C, meteoblue morning temperature +3.0 °C, meteoblue afternoon temperature +3.0 °C, meteoblue evening temperature +3.0 °C (+284 more); cloud base estimated as 410 ft per °C of dewpoint spread for sources that report no ceiling (≥60% cloud cover; flagged estimated, weighted ×0.5); probability calibration — rain chance: meteoblue, Open-Meteo, Foreca, metcheck, OpenWeather, Visual Crossing, Tomorrow.io, wttrin, ecmwf, gfs, icon, ukmo, gem, ecmwfens; storm: Open-Meteo, Met.no (Yr), Foreca, OpenWeather, Visual Crossing, Tomorrow.io, wttrin, ecmwf, gfs, icon, meteofrance, aviationweather, ukmo, jma, gem, ecmwfens, aifs (each source's stated probability mapped to its verified frequency by an isotonic fit on ≥200 pairs, proven on the holdout); plausibility bounds from ERA5 climatology 2016-2025 (mean ± 5 sd; screening only, not observed truth); skill blend 1 auto-tuned over 9222 holdout pairs (consensus beat the best single source, icon, by 13%); correction gates (newest-7-day holdout; pooled skill is always on) — regional skill: off this week (did not improve holdout); place skill: off this week (did not improve holdout); lead-time skill: off this week (did not improve holdout); small-sample skill shrinkage: off this week (did not improve holdout); bias correction: on (improved holdout by 25.6%); place bias: on (improved holdout by 10.9%); hour-of-day bias: on (improved holdout by 7.0%); QNH bias: on (improved holdout by 57.4%); gust estimates: off this week (did not improve holdout); cloud-base coefficient: off this week (insufficient holdout: 79 of 200 items); recent-form skill: off this week (did not improve holdout); probability calibration: on (improved holdout by 36.3%); nowcast anchor horizon: off this week (did not improve holdout); dust-visibility estimate: off this week (did not improve holdout); fog risk: off this week (did not improve holdout).
Outlook
| Day | Date | Outlook | Temp | Max wind | Flight windows | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) |
| Sat | 7 Nov 26 | Poor | 23–34°C | 5 kts S, g 10 | 0700–0800L (Marginal, 2 h); 1900–2300L (Marginal, 5 h) ☾ | 74% | 9% interpolated |
| Sun | 8 Nov 26 | Marginal | 23–34°C | 6 kts SSW, g 11 | 0001–1000L (Marginal, 11 h) ☾; 1700–2300L (Marginal, 7 h) ☾ | 78% | 9% interpolated |
| Mon | 9 Nov 26 | Marginal | 24–35°C | 6 kts SW, g 11 | 0100–1000L (Marginal, 10 h) ☾; 1700–2300L (Marginal, 7 h) ☾ | 74% | 15% interpolated |
| Tue | 10 Nov 26 | Unacceptable | 24–35°C | 6 kts WNW, g 11 | 0001–0400L (Marginal, 5 h) ☾ | 73% | 21% interpolated |
| Wed | 11 Nov 26 | Unacceptable | 24–34°C | 6 kts SSE, g 10 | 1800–2300L (Marginal, 6 h) ☾ | 73% | 21% interpolated |
| Thu | 12 Nov 26 | Marginal | 22–33°C | 6 kts S, g 11 | 0200–1700L (Marginal, 16 h) ☾; 1900–2300L (Marginal, 5 h) ☾ | 68% | 16% interpolated |
| Fri | 13 Nov 26 | Marginal | 21–33°C | 5 kts ENE, g 12 | 0001–0100L (Marginal, 2 h) ☾; 1600–2300L (Marginal, 8 h) ☾ | 69% | 16% interpolated |
| Sat | 14 Nov 26 | Marginal | 21–34°C | 9 kts ENE, g 16 | 0001–0800L (Marginal, 9 h) ☾ | 68% | 16% interpolated |
| Sun | 15 Nov 26 | Marginal | 21–34°C | 8 kts ENE, g 13 | 0001–0500L (Marginal, 6 h) ☾; 1500–2200L (Marginal, 8 h) ☾ | 69% | 16% interpolated |
| Mon | 16 Nov 26 | Marginal | 22–36°C | 6 kts NE, g 11 | 0300–1700L (Marginal, 15 h) ☾; 2000–2300L (Marginal, 4 h) ☾ | 68% | 8% interpolated |
| Tue | 17 Nov 26 | Marginal | 22–35°C | 7 kts NE, g 13 | 0001–0600L (Marginal, 7 h) ☾; 1400–2300L (Marginal, 10 h) ☾ | 68% | |
| Wed | 18 Nov 26 | Marginal | 22–35°C | 5 kts NE, g 9 | 0001–2300L (Marginal, 24 h) ☾ | 68% | |
| Thu | 19 Nov 26 | Marginal | 23–36°C | 5 kts ENE, g 9 | 0001–0400L (Marginal, 5 h) ☾; 1700–2300L (Marginal, 7 h) ☾ | 68% | |
| Fri | 20 Nov 26 | Marginal | 23–36°C | 5 kts SE, g 11 | 0001–0900L (Marginal, 10 h) ☾; 1800–1900L (Marginal, 2 h) ☾ | 67% |
Today — Sat 7 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Poor: partly cloudy, winds up to 5 kts S and temperatures 23–34°C. Flyable windows: 0700–0800L (Marginal, 2 h) and 1900–2300L (Marginal, 5 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L.
| 00–06L | 06–12L | 12–18L | 18–24L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind | B | D | C | B |
| Visibility | A | A | A | A |
| Cloud / ceiling | G | F | D | D |
| Precipitation | A | A | A | A |
| Thunderstorm | D | E | E | E |
| Fog | · | · | · | · |
A Excellent · B Good · C Fair · D Marginal (flyable) · E Poor · F Very Poor · G Unacceptable · (worst condition in each period)
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 26°C | Clear (5%) | 3 kts NE | - | 1014 | · - No data | storm 0% · visibility not forecast
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 25 (spread 24–26)°C | Cloudy (72%) | 3 (spread 2–3) kts ESE | 3 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 72%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 24 (spread 23–26)°C | Cloudy (74%) | 4 (spread 3–4) kts ESE | 4 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 74%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 24 (spread 23–25)°C | Cloudy (69%) | 3 (spread 3–4) kts E | 5 kts | 1012 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 69%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 5. | 0400 | 24 (spread 23–25)°C | Cloudy (68%) | 3 kts E | 4 kts | 1012 | F - Very Poor | cloud 68%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 6. | 0500 | 23 (spread 23–24)°C | Cloudy (72%) | 3 kts ESE | 3 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 72%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 7. | 0600 | 23 (spread 23–24)°C | Cloudy (62%) | 4 (spread 3–5) kts ESE | 5 kts | 1013 | F - Very Poor | cloud 62%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 8. | 0700 | 24 (spread 23–24)°C | Partly cloudy (50%) | 5 (spread 3–6) kts ESE | 6 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · cloud 50%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 9. | 0800 | 26 (spread 25–27)°C | Partly cloudy (36%) | 5 (spread 3–5) kts SSE | 7 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 10. | 0900 | 28 (spread 27–30)°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 5 (spread 4–6) kts S | 10 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | CAPE 2020 J/kg
| convective energy, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 11. | 1000 | 30 (spread 28–32)°C | Clear (1%) | 5 (spread 3–5) kts SSW | 9 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | CAPE 2680 J/kg
| convective energy, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 12. | 1100 | 31 (spread 30–33)°C | Clear (5%) | 4 (spread 3–4) kts SSW | 9 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | CAPE 2990 J/kg
| convective energy, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 13. | 1200 | 33 (spread 31–35)°C | Clear (3%) | 4 (spread 3–5) kts SW | 8 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | CAPE 2960 J/kg
| convective energy, thunderstorm risk |
| 14. | 1300 | 34 (spread 31–36)°C | Clear (11%) | 4 (spread 3–4) kts SW | 8 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | CAPE 2840 J/kg
| convective energy, thunderstorm risk |
| 15. | 1400 | 34 (spread 32–36)°C | Mostly clear (32%) | 3 (spread 3–4) kts SW | 7 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | CAPE 2530 J/kg
| convective energy, thunderstorm risk |
| 16. | 1500 | 34 (spread 32–36)°C | Partly cloudy (40%) | 4 kts ENE | 7 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | CAPE 2420 J/kg
| convective energy, thunderstorm risk |
| 17. | 1600 | 34 (spread 32–36)°C | Partly cloudy (37%) | 4 (spread 3–5) kts NNW | 6 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | CAPE 2470 J/kg
| convective energy, thunderstorm risk |
| 18. | 1700 | 33 (spread 31–34)°C | Partly cloudy (51%) | 4 (spread 3–5) kts WNW | 5 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | CAPE 2140 J/kg
| convective energy, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 19. | 1800 | 31 (spread 30–33)°C | Partly cloudy (45%) | 4 (spread 3–4) kts NW | 4 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | CAPE 2140 J/kg
| convective energy, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 30 (spread 28–31)°C | Partly cloudy (44%) | 3 (spread 3–4) kts WNW | 3 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · CAPE 1760 J/kg
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 21. | 2000 | 29 (spread 28–30)°C | Clear (12%) | 3 (spread 3–4) kts WSW | 2 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 28 (spread 27–29)°C | Clear (5%) | 4 (spread 3–5) kts WSW | 4 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 27 (spread 26–28)°C | Clear (2%) | 4 (spread 3–5) kts WSW | 5 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 5%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 27 (spread 26–28)°C | Clear (1%) | 4 (spread 3–5) kts W | 5 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · CAPE 1640 J/kg
| thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
Confidence: 74% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 9% of readings interpolated · first light 0603L · last light 1831L · Moon 4 % illuminated, rises 04:44, sets 16:47.
Tomorrow — Sun 8 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: clear, winds up to 6 kts SSW and temperatures 23–34°C. Flyable windows: 0001–1000L (Marginal, 11 h) and 1700–2300L (Marginal, 7 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall an improvement on the previous day.
| 00–06L | 06–12L | 12–18L | 18–24L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind | B | D | D | B |
| Visibility | A | A | A | A |
| Cloud / ceiling | A | A | B | D |
| Precipitation | A | A | A | A |
| Thunderstorm | D | E | E | D |
| Fog | · | · | · | · |
A Excellent · B Good · C Fair · D Marginal (flyable) · E Poor · F Very Poor · G Unacceptable · (worst condition in each period)
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 26 (spread 26–27)°C | Clear (3%) | 3 (spread 2–4) kts S | 4 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 26 (spread 25–27)°C | Clear (4%) | 2 kts ESE | 2 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 25 (spread 24–26)°C | Clear (7%) | 2 (spread 2–3) kts ENE | 3 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 24 (spread 23–25)°C | Clear (9%) | 3 (spread 2–3) kts ENE | 4 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 5. | 0400 | 24 (spread 23–24)°C | Clear (1%) | 3 (spread 2–4) kts ENE | 4 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 6. | 0500 | 23 (spread 23–24)°C | Clear (1%) | 3 (spread 2–4) kts NE | 5 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 7. | 0600 | 23 (spread 22–24)°C | Clear (5%) | 3 (spread 3–4) kts NE | 4 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 8. | 0700 | 23 (spread 23–24)°C | Clear (5%) | 3 (spread 2–3) kts ENE | 3 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · CAPE 1020 J/kg
| thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 9. | 0800 | 26 (spread 25–27)°C | Clear (2%) | 2 (spread 1–3) kts SE | 5 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 10. | 0900 | 29 (spread 28–30)°C | Clear (2%) | 4 (spread 3–5) kts S | 7 kts | 1018 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · CAPE 1760 J/kg
| thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 11. | 1000 | 31 (spread 29–32)°C | Clear (0%) | 5 (spread 5–6) kts SSW | 10 kts | 1018 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · CAPE 1990 J/kg
| thunderstorm risk, convective energy, gusts, wind shear |
| 12. | 1100 | 32 (spread 31–33)°C | Clear (1%) | 5 (spread 5–6) kts SSW | 11 kts | 1018 | E - Poor | CAPE 2470 J/kg
| convective energy, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 13. | 1200 | 33 (spread 32–35)°C | Clear (3%) | 6 (spread 6–7) kts SSW | 11 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | CAPE 2610 J/kg
| convective energy, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 14. | 1300 | 34 (spread 32–36)°C | Mostly clear (19%) | 5 (spread 4–5) kts SSW | 9 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | CAPE 2620 J/kg
| convective energy, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 15. | 1400 | 34 (spread 33–37)°C | Clear (10%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts SSW | 8 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | CAPE 2180 J/kg
| convective energy, thunderstorm risk |
| 16. | 1500 | 34 (spread 33–36)°C | Clear (8%) | 4 kts SSW | 7 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | CAPE 2190 J/kg
| convective energy, thunderstorm risk |
| 17. | 1600 | 34 (spread 33–36)°C | Clear (4%) | 4 (spread 3–4) kts SW | 6 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | CAPE 2090 J/kg
| convective energy, thunderstorm risk |
| 18. | 1700 | 33 (spread 32–35)°C | Clear (6%) | 5 (spread 4–6) kts W | 5 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · CAPE 1770 J/kg
| thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 19. | 1800 | 31 (spread 30–33)°C | Clear (5%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts WNW | 5 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · CAPE 1820 J/kg
| thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 20. | 1900 | 30 (spread 29–31)°C | Clear (4%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts WNW | 5 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · CAPE 1560 J/kg
| thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 21. | 2000 | 29 (spread 28–30)°C | Clear (2%) | 3 (spread 3–4) kts W | 3 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · CAPE 1250 J/kg
| thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 22. | 2100 | 28 (spread 27–29)°C | Clear (1%) | 4 kts SW | 4 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · CAPE 1050 J/kg
| thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 23. | 2200 | 28 (spread 27–29)°C | Partly cloudy (50%) | 4 (spread 3–4) kts SW | 3 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · CAPE 1320 J/kg
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 24. | 2300 | 27 (spread 26–28)°C | Partly cloudy (50%) | 3 (spread 2–4) kts ESE | 3 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · CAPE 1350 J/kg
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
Confidence: 78% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 9% of readings interpolated · first light 0603L · last light 1831L · Moon 1 % illuminated, rises 05:33, sets 17:29.
Extended Outlook
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind | D | D | D | E | E | F | E | E | E | D | D | D |
| Visibility | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A |
| Cloud / ceiling | F | G | G | E | G | A | A | A | A | B | G | F |
| Precipitation | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A | A |
| Thunderstorm | E | E | E | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
| Fog | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Overall | F | G | G | E | G | F | E | E | E | D | G | F |
A Excellent · B Good · C Fair · D Marginal (flyable) · E Poor · F Very Poor · G Unacceptable · (worst condition in each period)
Mon 9 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: mostly clear, winds up to 6 kts SW and temperatures 24–35°C. Flyable windows: 0100–1000L (Marginal, 10 h) and 1700–2300L (Marginal, 7 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 26°C | Cloudy (68%) | 3 kts SE | 4 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | cloud 68%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 2. | 0100 | 26 (spread 25–26)°C | Partly cloudy (41%) | 2 (spread 2–3) kts E | 3 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · CAPE 1260 J/kg
| thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 3. | 0200 | 25 (spread 25–26)°C | Mostly clear (21%) | 4 (spread 3–4) kts NE | 5 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · CAPE 1220 J/kg
| thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 4. | 0300 | 25 (spread 24–26)°C | Mostly clear (16%) | 2 (spread 2–3) kts ESE | 4 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · CAPE 1140 J/kg
| thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 5. | 0400 | 25 (spread 24–25)°C | Clear (10%) | 3 (spread 2–4) kts SSE | 3 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · CAPE 1200 J/kg
| thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 6. | 0500 | 24 (spread 24–25)°C | Clear (12%) | 4 (spread 3–4) kts S | 5 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · CAPE 1110 J/kg
| thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 7. | 0600 | 24 (spread 23–25)°C | Clear (4%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts S | 5 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · CAPE 1040 J/kg
| thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 8. | 0700 | 24 (spread 23–25)°C | Clear (4%) | 5 kts SSE | 6 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · CAPE 1020 J/kg
| thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 9. | 0800 | 26 (spread 25–27)°C | Clear (5%) | 5 (spread 4–5) kts SSE | 9 kts | 1018 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · CAPE 1000 J/kg
| thunderstorm risk, convective energy, gusts |
| 10. | 0900 | 28 (spread 27–29)°C | Mostly clear (20%) | 6 (spread 5–6) kts S | 10 kts | 1019 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 10 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 11. | 1000 | 30 (spread 29–31)°C | Mostly clear (24%) | 5 (spread 5–6) kts SSW | 11 kts | 1020 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 11 kt
| thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 12. | 1100 | 31 (spread 30–34)°C | Mostly clear (32%) | 5 (spread 4–5) kts SSW | 10 kts | 1019 | E - Poor | CAPE 2040 J/kg
| convective energy, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 13. | 1200 | 33 (spread 31–35)°C | Partly cloudy (44%) | 6 (spread 4–7) kts SW | 10 kts | 1018 | E - Poor | CAPE 2400 J/kg
| convective energy, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 14. | 1300 | 34 (spread 32–37)°C | Partly cloudy (48%) | 5 (spread 4–6) kts SW | 10 kts | 1018 | E - Poor | CAPE 2670 J/kg
| convective energy, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 35 (spread 33–37)°C | Partly cloudy (43%) | 4 kts S | 10 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | CAPE 2350 J/kg
| convective energy, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 16. | 1500 | 34 (spread 32–37)°C | Mostly clear (27%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts NE | 10 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · CAPE 1930 J/kg
| thunderstorm risk, convective energy, gusts, wind shear |
| 17. | 1600 | 35 (spread 32–36)°C | Mostly clear (19%) | 4 kts NNW | 8 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | CAPE 2010 J/kg
| convective energy, thunderstorm risk |
| 18. | 1700 | 34 (spread 32–35)°C | Clear (9%) | 5 (spread 4–6) kts W | 5 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · CAPE 1690 J/kg
| thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 19. | 1800 | 31 (spread 30–33)°C | Clear (6%) | 5 (spread 4–5) kts W | 5 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · CAPE 1890 J/kg
| thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 20. | 1900 | 30 (spread 28–31)°C | Clear (6%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts W | 6 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 29 (spread 28–30)°C | Clear (6%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts WSW | 5 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 28 (spread 27–29)°C | Clear (10%) | 5 kts WSW | 5 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 5%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 28 (spread 26–29)°C | Clear (2%) | 4 (spread 3–4) kts SSW | 3 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 5%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 27 (spread 26–28)°C | Clear (2%) | 3 kts S | 3 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 5%
| thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 74% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 15% of readings interpolated · first light 0604L · last light 1831L · Moon 0 % illuminated, rises 06:24, sets 18:14.
Tue 10 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Unacceptable: cloudy, winds up to 6 kts WNW and temperatures 24–35°C. Flyable windows: 0001–0400L (Marginal, 5 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall a deterioration from the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 26 (spread 26–27)°C | Clear (1%) | 2 (spread 1–3) kts ENE | 3 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 5%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 25 (spread 24–27)°C | Clear (1%) | 3 (spread 2–3) kts ENE | 4 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 5%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 25 (spread 24–26)°C | Clear (11%) | 3 (spread 2–3) kts E | 4 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 25 (spread 23–26)°C | Mostly clear (14%) | 2 (spread 2–3) kts E | 3 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 5. | 0400 | 24 (spread 23–25)°C | Mostly clear (31%) | 3 (spread 2–4) kts ESE | 3 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 6. | 0500 | 24 (spread 23–25)°C | Cloudy (64%) | 2 (spread 1–3) kts E | 3 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | cloud 64%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 7. | 0600 | 24 (spread 23–25)°C | Cloudy (72%) | 4 (spread 3–4) kts SSE | 4 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 72%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 8. | 0700 | 24 (spread 23–25)°C | Cloudy (71%) | 5 (spread 4–6) kts SSE | 7 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 71%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 9. | 0800 | 26 (spread 25–27)°C | Partly cloudy (54%) | 5 (spread 4–6) kts S | 9 kts | 1019 | E - Poor | cloud 54%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 10. | 0900 | 28 (spread 27–29)°C | Partly cloudy (49%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts S | 11 kts | 1019 | D - Marginal | storm 6% · cloud 49%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 11. | 1000 | 30 (spread 29–31)°C | Partly cloudy (41%) | 5 (spread 5–6) kts SSW | 11 kts | 1020 | E - Poor | CAPE 2520 J/kg
| convective energy, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 12. | 1100 | 32 (spread 30–33)°C | Partly cloudy (40%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts SW | 9 kts | 1020 | E - Poor | CAPE 2590 J/kg
| convective energy, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 13. | 1200 | 33 (spread 31–35)°C | Partly cloudy (46%) | 4 kts WSW | 9 kts | 1019 | E - Poor | CAPE 2520 J/kg
| convective energy, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 14. | 1300 | 34 (spread 32–36)°C | Partly cloudy (46%) | 3 kts NW | 9 kts | 1018 | E - Poor | CAPE 2400 J/kg
| convective energy, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 35 (spread 33–37)°C | Partly cloudy (52%) | 4 (spread 3–5) kts NNW | 9 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | CAPE 2290 J/kg · cloud 52%
| cloud cover, convective energy, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 16. | 1500 | 35 (spread 33–37)°C | Cloudy (71%) | 5 (spread 5–6) kts NNE | 9 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 71%
| cloud cover, convective energy, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 17. | 1600 | 35 (spread 33–37)°C | Cloudy (75%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts NNW | 9 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 75%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, convective energy, gusts |
| 18. | 1700 | 33 (spread 32–35)°C | Cloudy (77%) | 6 (spread 6–7) kts WNW | 9 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 77%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, convective energy, gusts |
| 19. | 1800 | 31 (spread 30–33)°C | Cloudy (77%) | 5 (spread 5–6) kts WSW | 10 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 77%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 20. | 1900 | 30 (spread 28–31)°C | Cloudy (77%) | 5 (spread 5–6) kts WSW | 10 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 77%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 21. | 2000 | 29 (spread 27–30)°C | Cloudy (80%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts WSW | 7 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 80%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 28 (spread 26–29)°C | Overcast (91%) | 3 (spread 2–3) kts SSW | 4 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 91%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 27 (spread 26–28)°C | Overcast (96%) | 2 (spread 1–3) kts SSE | 2 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 96%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 27 (spread 25–28)°C | Overcast (98%) | 3 (spread 2–4) kts SE | 4 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 98%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 73% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 21% of readings interpolated · first light 0604L · last light 1831L · Moon 2 % illuminated, rises 07:16, sets 19:02.
Wed 11 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Unacceptable: cloudy, winds up to 6 kts SSE and temperatures 24–34°C. Flyable windows: 1800–2300L (Marginal, 6 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 26 (spread 25–27)°C | Overcast (99%) | 3 (spread 2–3) kts SE | 4 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 99%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 26 (spread 25–27)°C | Overcast (99%) | 3 kts SE | 5 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 99%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 25 (spread 25–26)°C | Overcast (97%) | 4 (spread 3–4) kts SE | 6 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 97%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 25 (spread 25–26)°C | Overcast (93%) | 5 (spread 4–5) kts SSE | 8 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 93%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 5. | 0400 | 25 (spread 24–26)°C | Overcast (94%) | 5 (spread 4–6) kts SSE | 10 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 94%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 6. | 0500 | 25 (spread 24–26)°C | Cloudy (82%) | 5 (spread 4–6) kts SSE | 9 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 82%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 7. | 0600 | 24 (spread 23–25)°C | Partly cloudy (56%) | 6 kts SSE | 10 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | cloud 56%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 8. | 0700 | 24 (spread 23–25)°C | Partly cloudy (53%) | 6 (spread 5–6) kts S | 10 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | cloud 53%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 9. | 0800 | 26 (spread 25–27)°C | Partly cloudy (52%) | 5 (spread 4–6) kts SSE | 9 kts | 1018 | E - Poor | cloud 52%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 10. | 0900 | 28 (spread 27–29)°C | Cloudy (73%) | 4 (spread 2–6) kts SE | 9 kts | 1019 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 73%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, convective energy, gusts, wind shear |
| 11. | 1000 | 30 (spread 28–31)°C | Cloudy (73%) | 4 (spread 3–6) kts ESE | 8 kts | 1020 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 73%
| cloud cover, convective energy, thunderstorm risk |
| 12. | 1100 | 31 (spread 29–33)°C | Cloudy (85%) | 4 (spread 3–5) kts E | 8 kts | 1020 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 85%
| cloud cover, convective energy, thunderstorm risk |
| 13. | 1200 | 32 (spread 30–34)°C | Cloudy (86%) | 5 (spread 4–5) kts ENE | 8 kts | 1019 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 86%
| cloud cover, convective energy, thunderstorm risk |
| 14. | 1300 | 33 (spread 31–35)°C | Cloudy (88%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts ENE | 8 kts | 1018 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 88%
| cloud cover, convective energy, thunderstorm risk |
| 15. | 1400 | 34 (spread 32–36)°C | Cloudy (88%) | 5 (spread 4–5) kts NE | 8 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 88%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 16. | 1500 | 34 (spread 32–36)°C | Cloudy (84%) | 6 (spread 5–6) kts NNE | 8 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 84%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, convective energy |
| 17. | 1600 | 34 (spread 32–36)°C | Cloudy (81%) | 6 (spread 5–6) kts NNE | 9 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 81%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, convective energy, gusts |
| 18. | 1700 | 32 (spread 31–34)°C | Cloudy (69%) | 6 (spread 5–6) kts ENE | 7 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 69%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 19. | 1800 | 31 (spread 29–32)°C | Partly cloudy (35%) | 4 kts W | 6 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 6%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 29 (spread 28–31)°C | Mostly clear (29%) | 4 kts WNW | 5 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 28 (spread 27–29)°C | Mostly clear (26%) | 4 kts NW | 5 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 6%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 27 (spread 26–28)°C | Mostly clear (29%) | 4 kts N | 5 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 26 (spread 25–27)°C | Partly cloudy (37%) | 4 kts NNE | 4 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5%
| thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 25 (spread 24–27)°C | Partly cloudy (36%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts NNE | 4 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5%
| thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 73% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 21% of readings interpolated · first light 0604L · last light 1831L · Moon 5 % illuminated, rises 08:08, sets 19:52.
Thu 12 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: partly cloudy, winds up to 6 kts S and temperatures 22–33°C. Flyable windows: 0200–1700L (Marginal, 16 h) and 1900–2300L (Marginal, 5 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall an improvement on the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 24 (spread 23–26)°C | Partly cloudy (48%) | 3 (spread 2–3) kts E | 6 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · cloud 48%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 24 (spread 22–26)°C | Partly cloudy (55%) | 2 (spread 2–3) kts ENE | 5 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | cloud 55%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 23 (spread 21–24)°C | Partly cloudy (45%) | 4 (spread 3–5) kts ENE | 8 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · cloud 45%
| ⚠ cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 22 (spread 21–23)°C | Partly cloudy (36%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts E | 8 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 5. | 0400 | 22 (spread 21–23)°C | Mostly clear (30%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts E | 8 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 6. | 0500 | 22 (spread 21–23)°C | Mostly clear (30%) | 5 (spread 4–5) kts ESE | 9 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 7. | 0600 | 22 (spread 21–23)°C | Partly cloudy (33%) | 5 (spread 4–6) kts ESE | 9 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 8. | 0700 | 22 (spread 22–23)°C | Partly cloudy (33%) | 5 (spread 4–6) kts SE | 10 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 9. | 0800 | 25 (spread 24–25)°C | Partly cloudy (38%) | 5 (spread 4–6) kts SSE | 10 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 10. | 0900 | 27 (spread 26–27)°C | Partly cloudy (41%) | 5 (spread 5–6) kts SSE | 10 kts | 1018 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · CAPE 1190 J/kg
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, convective energy, gusts, wind shear |
| 11. | 1000 | 29 (spread 29–30)°C | Partly cloudy (43%) | 5 (spread 5–6) kts S | 10 kts | 1019 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · CAPE 1420 J/kg
| ⚠ cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, convective energy, gusts, wind shear |
| 12. | 1100 | 30 (spread 29–31)°C | Partly cloudy (41%) | 5 (spread 4–5) kts SSE | 10 kts | 1018 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 13. | 1200 | 32 (spread 31–33)°C | Partly cloudy (42%) | 6 kts S | 10 kts | 1018 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 14. | 1300 | 33 (spread 32–34)°C | Partly cloudy (40%) | 6 (spread 5–6) kts S | 10 kts | 1018 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 15. | 1400 | 33 (spread 32–34)°C | Partly cloudy (42%) | 5 kts S | 11 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 16. | 1500 | 33 (spread 32–34)°C | Partly cloudy (41%) | 5 (spread 4–5) kts SSW | 11 kts | 1017 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 17. | 1600 | 32 (spread 31–34)°C | Partly cloudy (41%) | 5 (spread 4–5) kts SW | 11 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 18. | 1700 | 31 (spread 30–32)°C | Partly cloudy (42%) | 5 kts SW | 11 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 19. | 1800 | 30 (spread 29–31)°C | Partly cloudy (44%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts WSW | 11 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust spread +6 kt
| wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 20. | 1900 | 29 (spread 28–30)°C | Partly cloudy (42%) | 5 (spread 4–5) kts W | 11 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 5% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 21. | 2000 | 28 (spread 27–29)°C | Partly cloudy (45%) | 5 kts W | 10 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · cloud 45%
| ⚠ cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 22. | 2100 | 27 (spread 26–28)°C | Partly cloudy (44%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts NNE | 9 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · cloud 44%
| ⚠ cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 23. | 2200 | 26 (spread 25–26)°C | Partly cloudy (44%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts NNE | 9 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · cloud 44%
| ⚠ cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 24. | 2300 | 25 (spread 24–25)°C | Partly cloudy (45%) | 4 kts NNE | 8 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · cloud 45%
| ⚠ cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 68% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 16% of readings interpolated · first light 0604L · last light 1830L · Moon 9 % illuminated, rises 09:01, sets 20:43.
Fri 13 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: partly cloudy, winds up to 5 kts ENE, gusting 12 kts and temperatures 21–33°C. Flyable windows: 0001–0100L (Marginal, 2 h) and 1600–2300L (Marginal, 8 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 24 (spread 23–24)°C | Partly cloudy (47%) | 3 (spread 3–4) kts NE | 7 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · cloud 47%
| ⚠ cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 23 (spread 23–24)°C | Partly cloudy (50%) | 3 (spread 3–4) kts NE | 6 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · cloud 50%
| ⚠ cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 23 (spread 22–23)°C | Partly cloudy (56%) | 3 (spread 2–3) kts ENE | 6 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | cloud 56%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 22 (spread 22–23)°C | Cloudy (62%) | 3 (spread 2–3) kts ENE | 7 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | cloud 62%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 5. | 0400 | 22 (spread 21–22)°C | Cloudy (70%) | 2 (spread 2–3) kts E | 8 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 70%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 6. | 0500 | 21 (spread 20–22)°C | Cloudy (76%) | 2 (spread 2–3) kts ESE | 8 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 76%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 7. | 0600 | 21 (spread 20–22)°C | Cloudy (81%) | 3 (spread 2–4) kts SE | 9 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 81%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 8. | 0700 | 21 (spread 21–22)°C | Cloudy (85%) | 3 (spread 2–4) kts SE | 10 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 85%
| cloud cover, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 9. | 0800 | 23 (spread 22–24)°C | Cloudy (78%) | 3 (spread 3–4) kts SSE | 10 kts | 1016 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 78%
| cloud cover, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 10. | 0900 | 25 (spread 24–27)°C | Cloudy (70%) | 3 (spread 3–4) kts SSE | 10 kts | 1017 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 70%
| cloud cover, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 11. | 1000 | 28 (spread 26–29)°C | Partly cloudy (59%) | 3 (spread 3–4) kts S | 10 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | cloud 59% · gust spread +7 kt
| cloud cover, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 12. | 1100 | 30 (spread 29–31)°C | Partly cloudy (49%) | 3 kts S | 11 kts | 1018 | E - Poor | gust spread +8 kt
| wind shear, cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 13. | 1200 | 32 (spread 30–33)°C | Partly cloudy (39%) | 4 kts S | 11 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | gust spread +7 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 14. | 1300 | 33 (spread 31–34)°C | Mostly clear (32%) | 4 (spread 3–4) kts S | 12 kts | 1018 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 15. | 1400 | 33 (spread 32–35)°C | Mostly clear (25%) | 4 (spread 3–4) kts S | 12 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 16. | 1500 | 33 (spread 31–34)°C | Mostly clear (20%) | 3 (spread 3–4) kts NW | 11 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | gust spread +8 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 17. | 1600 | 33 (spread 31–34)°C | Mostly clear (15%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts N | 10 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 18. | 1700 | 31 (spread 30–33)°C | Clear (11%) | 5 kts NNE | 9 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 19. | 1800 | 30 (spread 28–31)°C | Clear (7%) | 4 (spread 3–4) kts NNE | 8 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 28 (spread 27–29)°C | Clear (3%) | 4 (spread 3–5) kts NNE | 7 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 27 (spread 27–28)°C | Clear (4%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts NE | 7 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 26 (spread 25–27)°C | Clear (3%) | 5 (spread 4–5) kts NE | 7 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 25 (spread 24–26)°C | Clear (3%) | 5 kts NE | 8 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 24 (spread 23–25)°C | Clear (3%) | 5 kts ENE | 8 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 69% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 16% of readings interpolated · first light 0605L · last light 1830L · Moon 15 % illuminated, rises 09:51, sets 21:35.
Sat 14 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: clear, winds up to 9 kts ENE, gusting 16 kts and temperatures 21–34°C. Flyable windows: 0001–0800L (Marginal, 9 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 23 (spread 22–24)°C | Clear (2%) | 4 (spread 3–5) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 2. | 0100 | 22 (spread 22–23)°C | Clear (2%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 3. | 0200 | 23 (spread 21–24)°C | Clear (3%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts ENE | 8 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 22 (spread 21–23)°C | Clear (4%) | 5 (spread 4–5) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 5. | 0400 | 22 (spread 20–23)°C | Clear (4%) | 5 kts ENE | 9 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 6. | 0500 | 21 (spread 20–23)°C | Clear (4%) | 5 kts ENE | 9 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 7. | 0600 | 21 (spread 20–22)°C | Clear (3%) | 6 (spread 5–6) kts ENE | 9 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 8. | 0700 | 21 (spread 21–22)°C | Clear (3%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 9. | 0800 | 24 (spread 22–25)°C | Clear (4%) | 6 (spread 6–7) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 10. | 0900 | 26 (spread 25–27)°C | Clear (4%) | 7 (spread 6–8) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 11. | 1000 | 28 (spread 27–29)°C | Clear (4%) | 7 (spread 6–8) kts ENE | 14 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +6 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 12. | 1100 | 31 (spread 30–32)°C | Clear (5%) | 8 (spread 7–8) kts ENE | 13 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 13. | 1200 | 33 (spread 32–34)°C | Clear (5%) | 9 (spread 7–10) kts ENE | 14 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 14. | 1300 | 34 (spread 33–36)°C | Clear (4%) | 9 (spread 7–10) kts ENE | 15 kts | 1017 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, strong wind, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 34 (spread 33–35)°C | Clear (5%) | 9 (spread 7–10) kts ENE | 16 kts | 1017 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk, strong wind |
| 16. | 1500 | 34 (spread 33–35)°C | Clear (5%) | 8 (spread 8–9) kts NE | 16 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | gust 16 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 17. | 1600 | 33 (spread 31–34)°C | Clear (4%) | 8 (spread 7–9) kts NE | 15 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 18. | 1700 | 31 (spread 30–32)°C | Clear (4%) | 8 (spread 7–8) kts NE | 14 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 19. | 1800 | 29 (spread 28–31)°C | Clear (4%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts NNE | 13 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 28 (spread 27–29)°C | Clear (3%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts NNE | 12 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 21. | 2000 | 27 (spread 26–28)°C | Clear (3%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts NNE | 15 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | gust 15 kt · gust spread +9 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 26 (spread 25–27)°C | Clear (3%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts NNE | 14 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 14 kt · gust spread +8 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 25 (spread 24–26)°C | Clear (2%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts NE | 12 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 24. | 2300 | 24 (spread 23–25)°C | Clear (2%) | 6 (spread 6–7) kts NE | 11 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
Confidence: 68% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 16% of readings interpolated · first light 0605L · last light 1830L · Moon 23 % illuminated, rises 10:39, sets 22:26.
Sun 15 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: clear, winds up to 8 kts ENE and temperatures 21–34°C. Flyable windows: 0001–0500L (Marginal, 6 h) and 1500–2200L (Marginal, 8 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 24 (spread 22–25)°C | Clear (2%) | 6 kts NE | 10 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 2. | 0100 | 23 (spread 22–24)°C | Clear (2%) | 6 (spread 6–7) kts NE | 10 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 3. | 0200 | 22 (spread 21–24)°C | Clear (2%) | 7 kts NE | 9 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 4. | 0300 | 22 (spread 21–23)°C | Clear (2%) | 7 kts NE | 10 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 5. | 0400 | 21 (spread 20–22)°C | Clear (2%) | 7 (spread 7–8) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 6. | 0500 | 21 (spread 20–22)°C | Clear (3%) | 7 (spread 7–8) kts ENE | 10 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 7. | 0600 | 21 (spread 20–22)°C | Clear (4%) | 8 (spread 7–8) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 8. | 0700 | 21 (spread 21–22)°C | Clear (3%) | 8 (spread 7–8) kts ENE | 12 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk |
| 9. | 0800 | 23 (spread 23–24)°C | Clear (4%) | 7 (spread 7–8) kts ENE | 13 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 10. | 0900 | 26 (spread 25–27)°C | Clear (4%) | 7 kts ENE | 11 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 11. | 1000 | 29 (spread 28–29)°C | Clear (4%) | 6 (spread 6–7) kts E | 12 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 12. | 1100 | 31 (spread 30–32)°C | Clear (4%) | 6 (spread 6–7) kts E | 12 kts | 1017 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 13. | 1200 | 33 (spread 32–34)°C | Clear (4%) | 7 kts ESE | 12 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 14. | 1300 | 34 (spread 34–36)°C | Clear (3%) | 6 (spread 6–7) kts ESE | 12 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 34 (spread 33–35)°C | Clear (3%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts ESE | 12 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 16. | 1500 | 34 (spread 33–35)°C | Clear (3%) | 5 (spread 4–7) kts E | 11 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 17. | 1600 | 33 (spread 32–34)°C | Clear (2%) | 5 (spread 4–6) kts ENE | 11 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 18. | 1700 | 31 (spread 30–32)°C | Clear (2%) | 5 (spread 3–6) kts NE | 10 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 19. | 1800 | 30 (spread 28–31)°C | Clear (2%) | 4 (spread 3–5) kts N | 10 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 20. | 1900 | 28 (spread 27–30)°C | Clear (1%) | 3 (spread 3–4) kts NNW | 9 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 21. | 2000 | 28 (spread 27–29)°C | Clear (1%) | 4 (spread 3–5) kts N | 9 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 22. | 2100 | 27 (spread 26–28)°C | Clear (1%) | 4 (spread 3–5) kts NNE | 8 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 26 (spread 25–27)°C | Clear (1%) | 4 (spread 3–4) kts NNE | 10 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 24. | 2300 | 26 (spread 25–27)°C | Clear (1%) | 4 (spread 3–5) kts NNE | 11 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust spread +6 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
Confidence: 69% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 16% of readings interpolated · first light 0605L · last light 1830L · Moon 31 % illuminated, rises 11:24, sets 23:15.
Mon 16 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: clear, winds up to 6 kts NE and temperatures 22–36°C. Flyable windows: 0300–1700L (Marginal, 15 h) and 2000–2300L (Marginal, 4 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 25 (spread 24–26)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (spread 3–4) kts NE | 11 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust spread +7 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 2. | 0100 | 24 (spread 23–25)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 kts NE | 11 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust spread +6 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 3. | 0200 | 24 (spread 23–25)°C | Clear (0%) | 4 (spread 4–5) kts NE | 11 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust spread +6 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 4. | 0300 | 23 (spread 22–24)°C | Clear (0%) | 5 (spread 4–5) kts NE | 11 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 5. | 0400 | 23 (spread 21–24)°C | Clear (0%) | 5 (spread 3–6) kts NE | 10 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 6. | 0500 | 22 (spread 21–23)°C | Clear (0%) | 5 (spread 4–6) kts NE | 10 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 7. | 0600 | 22 (spread 21–23)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts NE | 10 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 8. | 0700 | 22 (spread 21–23)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts NE | 10 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 9. | 0800 | 24 (spread 23–25)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (spread 5–7) kts NE | 10 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 10. | 0900 | 26 (spread 25–28)°C | Clear (0%) | 6 (spread 5–6) kts NE | 10 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 11. | 1000 | 29 (spread 28–30)°C | Clear (0%) | 5 (spread 5–6) kts NE | 11 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 12. | 1100 | 32 (spread 31–32)°C | Clear (1%) | 5 (spread 4–5) kts NE | 9 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 13. | 1200 | 34 (spread 33–35)°C | Clear (1%) | 5 (spread 4–6) kts NE | 9 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 14. | 1300 | 35 (spread 34–37)°C | Clear (1%) | 4 (spread 3–6) kts NNE | 9 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 36°C | Clear (1%) | 5 kts NE | 9 kts | 1016 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 16. | 1500 | 35°C | Clear (2%) | 5 kts NE | 9 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 17. | 1600 | 34°C | Clear (2%) | 4 kts NNE | 10 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 18. | 1700 | 33°C | Clear (1%) | 4 kts N | 10 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 19. | 1800 | 31°C | Clear (1%) | 3 kts NW | 10 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust spread +7 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 20. | 1900 | 30°C | Clear (0%) | 3 kts WNW | 10 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust spread +6 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 21. | 2000 | 29°C | Clear (0%) | 3 kts NW | 9 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 22. | 2100 | 28°C | Clear (0%) | 3 kts NNW | 8 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust spread +5 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 23. | 2200 | 28°C | Clear (0%) | 3 kts N | 7 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 27°C | Clear (0%) | 3 kts N | 6 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 68% — data for 24 of 24 hours; 8% of readings interpolated · first light 0606L · last light 1830L · Moon 40 % illuminated, rises 12:06.
Tue 17 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: clear, winds up to 7 kts NE, gusting 13 kts and temperatures 22–35°C. Flyable windows: 0001–0600L (Marginal, 7 h) and 1400–2300L (Marginal, 10 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 26°C | Clear (0%) | 2 kts NNE | 5 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 25°C | Clear (0%) | 2 kts NE | 6 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 24°C | Clear (0%) | 3 kts NE | 7 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 24°C | Clear (0%) | 4 kts NE | 8 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 5. | 0400 | 23°C | Clear (0%) | 5 kts NE | 9 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 6. | 0500 | 22°C | Clear (0%) | 5 kts NE | 10 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 7. | 0600 | 22°C | Clear (0%) | 7 kts NE | 11 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 11 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 8. | 0700 | 22°C | Clear (0%) | 7 kts NE | 12 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 9. | 0800 | 24°C | Clear (0%) | 6 kts NE | 12 kts | 1013 | E - Poor | gust 12 kt
| gusts, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 10. | 0900 | 26°C | Clear (0%) | 6 kts NE | 13 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | gust 13 kt · gust spread +7 kt
| gusts, wind shear, thunderstorm risk |
| 11. | 1000 | 29°C | Clear (0%) | 4 kts NE | 10 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 6% · gust 10 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 12. | 1100 | 31°C | Clear (1%) | 3 kts NE | 10 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust spread +7 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 13. | 1200 | 33°C | Clear (1%) | 3 kts ESE | 10 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust spread +7 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 14. | 1300 | 35°C | Clear (1%) | 3 kts SE | 10 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | gust spread +6 kt
| wind shear, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 15. | 1400 | 35°C | Clear (1%) | 4 kts SE | 9 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 16. | 1500 | 34°C | Clear (1%) | 4 kts SSE | 9 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 17. | 1600 | 34°C | Clear (1%) | 5 kts SSW | 8 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 18. | 1700 | 32°C | Clear (1%) | 5 kts SSW | 7 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 19. | 1800 | 31°C | Clear (2%) | 4 kts SW | 7 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 30°C | Clear (2%) | 4 kts SW | 6 kts | 1012 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 29°C | Clear (1%) | 4 kts SSW | 6 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 28°C | Clear (1%) | 3 kts S | 6 kts | 1012 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 28°C | Clear (1%) | 3 kts SE | 6 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 27°C | Clear (1%) | 3 kts E | 6 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 68% — data for 24 of 24 hours · first light 0606L · last light 1831L · Moon 50 % illuminated, rises 12:46, sets 00:03.
Wed 18 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: mostly clear, winds up to 5 kts NE and temperatures 22–35°C. Flyable windows: 0001–2300L (Marginal, 24 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 26°C | Clear (0%) | 2 kts ENE | 6 kts | 1012 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 25°C | Clear (0%) | 3 kts ENE | 6 kts | 1012 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 25°C | Clear (1%) | 3 kts NE | 6 kts | 1012 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 24°C | Clear (1%) | 4 kts NE | 6 kts | 1012 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 5. | 0400 | 23°C | Clear (1%) | 4 kts NE | 7 kts | 1012 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 6. | 0500 | 23°C | Clear (2%) | 4 kts NE | 8 kts | 1012 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 7. | 0600 | 22°C | Clear (2%) | 5 kts NE | 8 kts | 1012 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 8. | 0700 | 22°C | Clear (3%) | 5 kts NE | 9 kts | 1012 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 9. | 0800 | 24°C | Clear (4%) | 5 kts NE | 9 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 10. | 0900 | 27°C | Clear (6%) | 4 kts NE | 9 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 11. | 1000 | 29°C | Clear (8%) | 4 kts ENE | 7 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 12. | 1100 | 32°C | Clear (10%) | 3 kts ENE | 8 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust spread +5 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 13. | 1200 | 34°C | Clear (12%) | 4 kts E | 8 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 14. | 1300 | 35°C | Mostly clear (13%) | 4 kts ESE | 9 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 15. | 1400 | 35°C | Mostly clear (15%) | 4 kts SE | 9 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 16. | 1500 | 35°C | Mostly clear (16%) | 4 kts SE | 9 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 17. | 1600 | 34°C | Mostly clear (18%) | 4 kts NW | 9 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 18. | 1700 | 33°C | Mostly clear (19%) | 4 kts WNW | 8 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 19. | 1800 | 31°C | Mostly clear (20%) | 4 kts WNW | 7 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 30°C | Mostly clear (21%) | 4 kts WNW | 6 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 29°C | Mostly clear (21%) | 3 kts NW | 6 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 28°C | Mostly clear (20%) | 3 kts NNW | 5 kts | 1012 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 27°C | Mostly clear (19%) | 3 kts N | 6 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 24. | 2300 | 26°C | Mostly clear (19%) | 3 kts NE | 6 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 68% — data for 24 of 24 hours · first light 0606L · last light 1831L · Moon 60 % illuminated, rises 13:25, sets 00:50.
Thu 19 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: cloudy, winds up to 5 kts ENE and temperatures 23–36°C. Flyable windows: 0001–0400L (Marginal, 5 h) and 1700–2300L (Marginal, 7 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 25°C | Mostly clear (20%) | 3 kts NE | 6 kts | 1012 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 25°C | Mostly clear (23%) | 4 kts ENE | 6 kts | 1012 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 24°C | Mostly clear (30%) | 4 kts ENE | 6 kts | 1012 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 24°C | Partly cloudy (39%) | 4 kts ENE | 6 kts | 1012 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 5. | 0400 | 23°C | Partly cloudy (51%) | 5 kts ENE | 7 kts | 1012 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · cloud 51%
| ⚠ cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 6. | 0500 | 23°C | Cloudy (62%) | 5 kts ENE | 7 kts | 1012 | F - Very Poor | cloud 62%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 7. | 0600 | 23°C | Cloudy (72%) | 5 kts ENE | 8 kts | 1012 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 72%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 8. | 0700 | 23°C | Cloudy (80%) | 5 kts ENE | 8 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 80%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 9. | 0800 | 25°C | Cloudy (86%) | 5 kts ENE | 9 kts | 1013 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 86%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 10. | 0900 | 27°C | Overcast (90%) | 5 kts ENE | 9 kts | 1014 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 90%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 11. | 1000 | 30°C | Overcast (92%) | 4 kts ENE | 9 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 92%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 12. | 1100 | 32°C | Overcast (94%) | 3 kts ENE | 7 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 94%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 13. | 1200 | 34°C | Overcast (94%) | 4 kts ENE | 8 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 94%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 14. | 1300 | 36°C | Overcast (92%) | 4 kts ENE | 8 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 92%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 15. | 1400 | 36°C | Cloudy (84%) | 3 kts NE | 8 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 84%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 16. | 1500 | 35°C | Cloudy (72%) | 4 kts NNE | 9 kts | 1015 | G - Unacceptable | cloud 72%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 17. | 1600 | 34°C | Partly cloudy (59%) | 4 kts N | 9 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | cloud 59%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 18. | 1700 | 33°C | Partly cloudy (46%) | 5 kts NNW | 9 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · cloud 46%
| ⚠ cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 19. | 1800 | 31°C | Partly cloudy (34%) | 5 kts NW | 9 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 20. | 1900 | 30°C | Mostly clear (27%) | 5 kts NW | 9 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust 9 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, gusts |
| 21. | 2000 | 29°C | Mostly clear (26%) | 4 kts NNW | 8 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 28°C | Mostly clear (26%) | 4 kts N | 7 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
| 23. | 2200 | 27°C | Mostly clear (30%) | 3 kts NNE | 8 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · gust spread +5 kt
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 24. | 2300 | 26°C | Partly cloudy (36%) | 3 kts NNE | 7 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4%
| ⚠ thunderstorm risk |
Confidence: 68% — data for 24 of 24 hours · first light 0607L · last light 1831L · Moon 69 % illuminated, rises 14:03, sets 01:37.
Fri 20 Nov 26
Conditions are expected to be generally Marginal: partly cloudy, winds up to 5 kts SE, gusting 11 kts and temperatures 23–36°C. Flyable windows: 0001–0900L (Marginal, 10 h) and 1800–1900L (Marginal, 2 h). Hazards: thunderstorm risk 0001–2300L. Overall similar to the previous day.
| Ser | Hrs | Temp | Cloud | Wind | Gust | QNH | Assessment | Driver | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) |
| 1. | 0001 | 26°C | Partly cloudy (43%) | 3 kts NE | 6 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · cloud 43%
| ⚠ cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 2. | 0100 | 25°C | Partly cloudy (47%) | 3 kts ENE | 6 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · cloud 47%
| ⚠ cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 3. | 0200 | 24°C | Partly cloudy (47%) | 3 kts ENE | 6 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · cloud 47%
| ⚠ cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 4. | 0300 | 24°C | Partly cloudy (46%) | 3 kts ENE | 7 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · cloud 46%
| ⚠ cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 5. | 0400 | 23°C | Partly cloudy (46%) | 4 kts ENE | 8 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · cloud 46%
| ⚠ cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 6. | 0500 | 23°C | Partly cloudy (44%) | 4 kts ENE | 9 kts | 1013 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · cloud 44%
| ⚠ cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 7. | 0600 | 23°C | Partly cloudy (43%) | 5 kts ENE | 10 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · cloud 43%
| ⚠ cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 8. | 0700 | 23°C | Partly cloudy (43%) | 5 kts ENE | 11 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · cloud 43%
| ⚠ cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 9. | 0800 | 25°C | Partly cloudy (46%) | 5 kts ENE | 11 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · cloud 46%
| ⚠ cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, gusts, wind shear |
| 10. | 0900 | 27°C | Partly cloudy (49%) | 4 kts ENE | 8 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · cloud 49%
| ⚠ cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 11. | 1000 | 30°C | Partly cloudy (53%) | 4 kts ENE | 8 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | cloud 53%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 12. | 1100 | 32°C | Partly cloudy (57%) | 4 kts E | 8 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | cloud 57%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 13. | 1200 | 34°C | Cloudy (60%) | 5 kts ESE | 8 kts | 1016 | E - Poor | cloud 60%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 14. | 1300 | 36°C | Cloudy (62%) | 5 kts ESE | 8 kts | 1016 | F - Very Poor | cloud 62%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 15. | 1400 | 35°C | Cloudy (62%) | 5 kts SE | 7 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | cloud 62%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 16. | 1500 | 35°C | Cloudy (61%) | 5 kts SE | 7 kts | 1015 | F - Very Poor | cloud 61%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 17. | 1600 | 34°C | Partly cloudy (59%) | 5 kts SE | 7 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | cloud 59%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 18. | 1700 | 33°C | Partly cloudy (55%) | 5 kts SE | 7 kts | 1015 | E - Poor | cloud 55%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 19. | 1800 | 31°C | Partly cloudy (51%) | 4 kts WNW | 7 kts | 1015 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · cloud 51%
| ⚠ cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 20. | 1900 | 30°C | Partly cloudy (49%) | 4 kts W | 7 kts | 1014 | D - Marginal | storm 4% · cloud 49%
| ⚠ cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 21. | 2000 | 29°C | Partly cloudy (52%) | 4 kts NW | 7 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | cloud 52%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk |
| 22. | 2100 | 28°C | Partly cloudy (55%) | 3 kts E | 8 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | cloud 55%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 23. | 2200 | 28°C | Cloudy (60%) | 3 kts N | 8 kts | 1014 | E - Poor | cloud 60%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
| 24. | 2300 | 27°C | Cloudy (66%) | 3 kts NE | 8 kts | 1014 | F - Very Poor | cloud 66%
| cloud cover, thunderstorm risk, wind shear |
Confidence: 67% — data for 24 of 24 hours · first light 0607L · last light 1831L · Moon 79 % illuminated, rises 14:43, sets 02:24.
TAF
No TAF available for this location.
Imagery
Source panel
| Source | Accuracy | Skill n | Temp °C | Wind kt | Visibility | Storm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) |
| Met.no (Yr) | ≈ 1.0 | 1591 | 20–21 | 3–4 | — | 0 % |
| Open-Meteo | ≈ 1.0 | 4685 | 20–21 | 2–4 | 10+ km | 0 % |
| OpenWeather | ≈ 1.0 | 734 | 24 | 2 | 10+ km | 0 % |
| Tomorrow.io | ▲ 1.1 | 2102 | 23–25 | 2–3 | 10+ km | 0 % |
| Visual Crossing | ≈ 1.1 | 3770 | 23–25 | 3 | 10+ km | 0 % |
Each source's own raw values, min–max over the next 6 hours from the issue hour (before any weighting or bias correction). — means the source does not publish that metric in the window. Wide gaps between rows are real disagreement; the forecast above weights sources by measured skill.
Reading this report
Grades: each hour carries one grade, set by its WORST factor. The bands below are the thresholds in force for this report (Settings); a value in a band earns that grade, and "-" means the factor never produces that grade. Cloud is graded on the worse of cover and ceiling. The Driver column names the limiting factor with its value; open it in the web report for the boundary and sources.
| Grade | Cloud cover | Cloud ceiling | Visibility | Wind | Gust | Rain chance | Thunderstorm probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) |
| A Excellent | ≤ 17.1% | ≥ 30000 ft | ≥ 8000 m | < 3 kt | < 3 kt | < 5% | 0% |
| B Good | 17.1–34.3% | 26000–30000 ft | 6666.7–8000 m | 3–6 kt | 3–6 kt | 5–10% | - |
| C Fair | 34.3–42.9% | 24000–26000 ft | 5333.3–6666.7 m | 6–9 kt | 6–9 kt | 10–15% | - |
| D Marginal | 42.9–51.4% | 22000–24000 ft | 4000–5333.3 m | 9–12 kt | 9–12 kt | 15–20% | >0–15% |
| E Poor | 51.4–60% | 16000–22000 ft | 2666.7–4000 m | 12–15 kt | 12–15 kt | 20–25% | 15–30% |
| F Very Poor | 60–68.6% | 10000–16000 ft | 1333.3–2666.7 m | 15–18 kt | 15–18 kt | 25–30% | 30–60% |
| G Unacceptable | > 68.6% | < 10000 ft | < 1333.3 m | ≥ 18 kt | ≥ 18 kt | ≥ 30% | > 60% |
Flight windows: a window is at least 2 consecutive hours graded Marginal or better; an hour with insufficient data never counts toward one. ☾ marks a window outside first-to-last light.
Time: hours are local time (WAT, UTC+1) unless suffixed Z, which is UTC (TAF, METAR and issue times). Local midnight is labelled 0001.
Units: temperature °C · wind and gusts knots · visibility metres (km in text) · cloud ceiling feet · cloud cover % · rain chance and thunderstorm probability % · QNH hPa (altimeter setting at the field) · CAPE J/kg. A figure like "28 (26–30)°C" gives the p10–p90 range; "spread" marks disagreement between sources.
Symbols: ▲ better than the pool · ▽ worse (only when the 95% interval excludes the pool) · ≈ not distinguishable from the pool · unmarked = unproven (accuracy is measured against METAR and SYNOP observations). ⚠ on a remark means a low-confidence hour; a ⚠ paragraph on the first page is a convective-warning or data-age advisory. ⚡ is lightning observed by satellite near the field (©EUMETSAT).
Hourly glyphs: the wind arrow points the way the air moves (a north wind is ↓, an east wind ←); cloud cover shows as ☀ ◔ ◑ ◕ ☁ (clear, few, scattered, broken, overcast); a shaded hour label is wholly before first light or after last light.
Terms: "No data" - no source forecast the hour, or a core group (cloud, visibility, wind) is missing and the hour could still be flyable; missing data is never given a good grade. "Low-confidence" - few or weak sources behind the load-bearing metrics; treat the grade as indicative. "Insufficient data" - too little to grade at all. "Estimated" (est.) - the value is derived, not reported by a source (dust visibility, cloud base, gusts); it is declared where used and weighted at half. "Derived" - an hour interpolated from a coarser (3-hourly or daily) source, weighted at half and never used to score accuracy.
Data provenance
| Source | Fetched (Z) | Age | Skill n | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) |
| Foreca | 7 Nov 00:19Z | 4 min | 363 | ≈ 1.1 |
| Met.no (Yr) | 7 Nov 00:20Z | 3 min | 1591 | ≈ 1.0 |
| Open-Meteo | 7 Nov 00:18Z | 5 min | 4685 | ≈ 1.0 |
| OpenWeather | 7 Nov 00:20Z | 3 min | 734 | ≈ 1.0 |
| Tomorrow.io | 7 Nov 00:20Z | 4 min | 2102 | ▲ 1.1 |
| Visual Crossing | 7 Nov 00:19Z | 5 min | 3770 | ≈ 1.1 |
Corrections applied (detailed under Learned corrections on the first page): skill weighting, bias correction, hour-of-day bias, cloud-base estimate, probability calibration, climatology bounds, skill blend.
How accurate have we been
Measured against observations (METAR/SYNOP), minna only. Verification table computed 2026-11-06. Mean absolute error (MAE): lower is better; "beats persistence" compares the best source with "it will stay as it is now" on the same hours.
| Metric | Best source | Best MAE | Typical MAE | Persistence MAE | Beats persistence by | Pairs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) |
| Temperature (°C) | foreca | 0.9 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 78 % | 154 |
| Dew point (°C) | accuweather | 1.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | -30 % | 35 |
| Wind speed (kt) | gem | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 21 % | 655 |
| Visibility (m) | visualcrossing | 232 | 351 | 1315 | -1 % | 1345 |
| Cloud cover (%) | accuweather | 16 | 46 | 9 | - | 35 |
Learned bias (forecast minus observed; positive = sources run high), mean over scored sources, by local time of day. These are corrected for before sources are averaged.
| Metric | Overall | Night | Morning | Afternoon | Evening | Pairs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) |
| Temperature (°C) | -3.1 | -3.1 | -3.0 | -3.1 | -3.4 | 14656 |
| Dew point (°C) | -3.9 | -3.5 | -3.4 | -3.8 | -4.4 | 13807 |
| Wind speed (kt) | -1.4 | -0.3 | -1.1 | -2.1 | -1.2 | 14674 |
Not yet available: Scores are decayed over the verification window (half-life 14 days); separate last-7-day and last-30-day windows are not stored. Bias is the current learned value; the history needed for a trend over time is not stored. Flight-window hit / bust / miss is not yet recorded.